The prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the evolution of the variance. Moreover, functional parameters are usually learned by maximum likelihood, which can lead to overfitting. To address these problems we introduce GP-Vol, a novel non-parametric model for time-changing variances based on Gaussian Processes. This new model can capture highly flexible functional relationships for the variances. Furthermore, we introduce a new online algorithm for fast inference in GP-Vol. This method is much faster than current offline inference procedures and it avoids overfitting problems by following a fully Bayesian approach. Experiments with financial data show that GP-Vol performs significantly better than current standard alternatives.

Recent work in financial machine learning has shown the virtue of complexity: the phenomenon by which deep learning methods capable of learning highly nonlinear relationships outperform simpler approaches in financial forecasting. While transformer architectures like Informer have shown promise for financial time series forecasting, the application of transformer models for options data remains largely unexplored. We conduct preliminary studies towards the development of a transformer model for options data by training the Vision Transformer (ViT) architecture, typically used in modern image recognition and classification systems, to predict the realized volatility of an asset over the next 30 days from its implied volatility surface (augmented with date information) for a single day. We show that the ViT can learn seasonal patterns and nonlinear features from the IV surface, suggesting a promising direction for model development.

We introduce Omega^2, a Large Language Model-driven framework for corporate credit scoring that combines structured financial data with advanced machine learning to improve predictive reliability and interpretability. Our study evaluates Omega^2 on a multi-agency dataset of 7,800 corporate credit ratings drawn from Moody's, Standard & Poor's, Fitch, and Egan-Jones, each containing detailed firm-level financial indicators such as leverage, profitability, and liquidity ratios. The system integrates CatBoost, LightGBM, and XGBoost models optimized through Bayesian search under temporal validation to ensure forward-looking and reproducible results. Omega^2 achieved a mean test AUC above 0.93 across agencies, confirming its ability to generalize across rating systems and maintain temporal consistency. These results show that combining language-based reasoning with quantitative learning creates a transparent and institution-grade foundation for reliable corporate credit-risk assessment.

The prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the evolution of the variance. Moreover, functional parameters are usually learned by maximum likelihood, which can lead to overfitting. To address these problems we introduce GP-Vol, a novel non-parametric model for time-changing variances based on Gaussian Processes. This new model can capture highly flexible functional relationships for the variances. Furthermore, we introduce a new online algorithm for fast inference in GP-Vol. This method is much faster than current offline inference procedures and it avoids overfitting problems by following a fully Bayesian approach. Experiments with financial data show that GP-Vol performs significantly better than current standard alternatives.

Clustering financial assets based on return correlations is a fundamental task in portfolio optimization and statistical arbitrage. However, classical clustering methods often fall short when dealing with signed correlation structures, typically requiring lossy transformations and heuristic assumptions such as a fixed number of clusters. In this work, we apply the Graph-based Coalition Structure Generation algorithm (GCS-Q) to directly cluster signed, weighted graphs without relying on such transformations. GCS-Q formulates each partitioning step as a QUBO problem, enabling it to leverage quantum annealing for efficient exploration of exponentially large solution spaces. We validate our approach on both synthetic and real-world financial data, benchmarking against state-of-the-art classical algorithms such as SPONGE and k-Medoids. Our experiments demonstrate that GCS-Q consistently achieves higher clustering quality, as measured by Adjusted Rand Index and structural balance penalties, while dynamically determining the number of clusters. These results highlight the practical utility of near-term quantum computing for graph-based unsupervised learning in financial applications.

Financial bubbles often arrive without much warning, but create long-lasting economic effects. For example, during the dot-com bubble, innovative technologies created market disruptions through excitement for a promised bright future. Such technologies originated from research where scientists had developed them for years prior to their entry into the markets. That raises a question on the possibility of analyzing scientific publishing data (e.g. citation networks) leading up to a bubble for signals that may forecast the rise and fall of similar future bubbles. To that end, we utilized temporal SNAs to detect possible relationships between the publication citation networks of scientists and financial market data during two modern eras of rapidly shifting technology: 1) dot-com era from 1994 to 2001 and 2) AI era from 2017 to 2024. Results showed that the patterns from the dot-com era (which did end in a bubble) did not definitively predict the rise and fall of an AI bubble. While yearly citation networks reflected possible changes in publishing behavior of scientists between the two eras, there was a subset of AI era scientists whose publication influence patterns mirrored those during the dot-com era. Upon further analysis using multiple analysis techniques (LSTM, KNN, AR X/GARCH), the data seems to suggest two possibilities for the AI era: unprecedented form of financial bubble unseen or that no bubble exists. In conclusion, our findings imply that the patterns present in the dot-com era do not effectively translate in such a manner to apply them to the AI market.

Traditional budget allocation models struggle with the stochastic and nonlinear nature of real-world financial data. This study proposes a hybrid reinforcement learning (RL) framework for dynamic budget allocation, enhanced with Dirichlet-inspired stochasticity and quantum mutation-based genetic optimization. Using Apple Inc. quarterly financial data (2009 to 2025), the RL agent learns to allocate budgets between Research and Development and Selling, General and Administrative to maximize profitability while adhering to historical spending patterns, with L2 penalties discouraging unrealistic deviations. A Dirichlet distribution governs state evolution to simulate shifting financial contexts. To escape local minima and improve generalization, the trained policy is refined using genetic algorithms with quantum mutation via parameterized qubit rotation circuits. Generation-wise rewards and penalties are logged to visualize convergence and policy behavior. On unseen fiscal data, the model achieves high alignment with actual allocations (cosine similarity 0.9990, KL divergence 0.0023), demonstrating the promise of combining deep RL, stochastic modeling, and quantum-inspired heuristics for adaptive enterprise budgeting.

Generative modeling of high-frequency limit order book (LOB) dynamics is a critical yet unsolved challenge in quantitative finance, essential for robust market simulation and strategy backtesting. Existing approaches are often constrained by simplifying stochastic assumptions or, in the case of modern deep learning models like Transformers, rely on tokenization schemes that affect the high-precision, numerical nature of financial data through discretization and binning. To address these limitations, we introduce ByteGen, a novel generative model that operates directly on the raw byte streams of LOB events. Our approach treats the problem as an autoregressive next-byte prediction task, for which we design a compact and efficient 32-byte packed binary format to represent market messages without information loss. The core novelty of our work is the complete elimination of feature engineering and tokenization, enabling the model to learn market dynamics from its most fundamental representation. We achieve this by adapting the H-Net architecture, a hybrid Mamba-Transformer model that uses a dynamic chunking mechanism to discover the inherent structure of market messages without predefined rules. Our primary contributions are: 1) the first end-to-end, byte-level framework for LOB modeling; 2) an efficient packed data representation; and 3) a comprehensive evaluation on high-frequency data. Trained on over 34 million events from CME Bitcoin futures, ByteGen successfully reproduces key stylized facts of financial markets, generating realistic price distributions, heavy-tailed returns, and bursty event timing. Our findings demonstrate that learning directly from byte space is a promising and highly flexible paradigm for modeling complex financial systems, achieving competitive performance on standard market quality metrics without the biases of tokenization.

--Corporate credit rating serves as a crucial intermediary service in the market economy, playing a key role in maintaining economic order . Existing credit rating models rely on financial metrics and deep learning. However, they often overlook insights from non-financial data, such as corporate annual reports. T o address this, this paper introduces a corporate credit rating framework that integrates financial data with features extracted from annual reports using FinBERT, aiming to fully leverage the potential value of unstructured text data. In addition, we have developed a large-scale dataset, the Comprehensive Corporate Rating Dataset (CCRD), which combines both traditional financial data and textual data from annual reports. The experimental results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy of the rating predictions by 8-12%, significantly improving the effectiveness and reliability of corporate credit ratings.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have garnered significant attention in financial asset pricing, due to their strong capacity for modeling complex nonlinear relationships within financial data. However, sophisticated models are prone to over-fitting to the noise information in financial data, resulting in inferior performance. To address this issue, we propose an information bottleneck asset pricing model that compresses data with low signal-to-noise ratios to eliminate redundant information and retain the critical information for asset pricing. Our model imposes constraints of mutual information during the nonlinear mapping process. Specifically, we progressively reduce the mutual information between the input data and the compressed representation while increasing the mutual information between the compressed representation and the output prediction. The design ensures that irrelevant information, which is essentially the noise in the data, is forgotten during the modeling of financial nonlinear relationships without affecting the final asset pricing. By leveraging the constraints of the Information bottleneck, our model not only harnesses the nonlinear modeling capabilities of deep networks to capture the intricate relationships within financial data but also ensures that noise information is filtered out during the information compression process.