Multicalibration extends classical calibration by requiring predictions to be unbiased over a rich collection of functions, encompassing both prediction slices and subpopulations. It has emerged as a powerful framework for fairness, robustness, and reliable prediction, yet the theoretical understanding of multicalibration boosting (MCBoost) remains fragmented and often relies on restrictive assumptions. In this work, we develop a unified and refined perspective on MCBoost that subsumes existing variants, including multiaccuracy, BatchGCP, and BatchMVP. We uncover several phenomena that provide new insights into its practical behavior: even highly accurate and flexible predictors can remain substantially miscalibrated; enforcing multicalibration introduces a calibration-risk trade-off; and early stopping plays a central role in controlling this trade-off. On the theoretical side, we establish a general framework for MCBoost under weaker and more realistic conditions. We show that the boosting iterates converge to a Bregman projection of the population-optimal predictor onto the cumulative span generated by the audit class, thereby explicitly characterizing the function space on which multicalibration is achieved. We further derive convergence rates under different smoothness assumptions, finite-sample guarantees, and principled stopping rules that ensure multicalibration at termination. Finally, we extend the theory of universal adaptability under covariate shift, providing more general transfer guarantees and clarifying when multicalibrated predictors generalize across domains. These results provide a more complete theoretical foundation and practical guidance for multicalibration boosting, positioning it as both a unifying framework and a reliable post-processing approach for modern predictive models.

A.1 Scenario with only stragglers The hyperparameter settings for Sageflow are shown in Table 1. For the schemes ignore stragglers and wait for stragglers combined with FedAvg, we decayed the learning rate during training. For the FedAsync scheme of [7], we take a polynomial strategy with hyperparameters a= 0.5, α= 0.8, and decayed γ during training. A.2 Scenario with only adversaries Data poisoning and model poisoning attacks: Table 2 describes the hyperparameters for Sageflow with only adversaries, under data poisoning and model poisoning attacks. For RFA of [5], the maximum iteration is set to 10. In this setup, the learning rate is decayed for all three schemes (Sageflow, RFA, FedAvg).

While federated learning (FL) allows efficient model training with local data at edge devices, among major issues still to be resolved are: slow devices known as stragglers and malicious attacks launched by adversaries. While the presence of both of these issues raises serious concerns in practical FL systems, no known schemes or combinations of schemes effectively address them at the same time. We propose Sageflow, staleness-aware grouping with entropy-based filtering and loss-weighted averaging, to handle both stragglers and adversaries simultaneously. Model grouping and weighting according to staleness (arrival delay) provides robustness against stragglers, while entropy-based filtering and loss-weighted averaging, working in a highly complementary fashion at each grouping stage, counter a wide range of adversary attacks. A theoretical bound is established to provide key insights into the convergence behavior of Sageflow. Extensive experimental results show that Sageflow outperforms various existing methods aiming to handle stragglers/adversaries.

For RFA of [5], the maximum iteration is set to 10. In this setup, the learning rate is decayed for all three schemes (Sageflow,RFA,FedAvg). The number of poisoned images inabatch is20, and we do not decay the learningratehere. Figure 1 shows theperformance under theno-scaled backdoor attack with only adversaries (nostragglers). The loss associated with a poisoned device increases if we increase the scale factor from 0.1 to 10.

Precipitation nowcasting -- the short-term prediction of rainfall using recent radar observations -- is critical for weather-sensitive sectors such as transportation, agriculture, and disaster mitigation. While recent deep learning models have shown promise in improving nowcasting skill, most approaches rely solely on 2D radar reflectivity fields, discarding valuable vertical information available in the full 3D radar volume. In this work, we explore the use of Echo Top Height (ETH), a 2D projection indicating the maximum altitude of radar reflectivity above a given threshold, as an auxiliary input variable for deep learning-based nowcasting. We examine the relationship between ETH and radar reflectivity, confirming its relevance for predicting rainfall intensity. We implement a single-pass 3D U-Net that processes both the radar reflectivity and ETH as separate input channels. While our models are able to leverage ETH to improve skill at low rain-rate thresholds, results are inconsistent at higher intensities and the models with ETH systematically underestimate precipitation intensity. Three case studies are used to illustrate how ETH can help in some cases, but also confuse the models and increase the error variance. Nonetheless, the study serves as a foundation for critically assessing the potential contribution of additional variables to nowcasting performance.

While many studies prove more advanced LLMs perform better on tasks such as math and coding, we notice that in cryptocurrency trading, stronger LLMs work worse than weaker LLMs often. To study how this counter-intuitive phenomenon occurs, we examine the LLM reasoning processes on making trading decisions. We find that separating the reasoning process into factual and subjective components can lead to higher profits. Building on this insight, we introduce a multi-agent framework, FS-ReasoningAgent, which enables LLMs to recognize and learn from both factual and subjective reasoning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that this framework enhances LLM trading performance in cryptocurrency markets. Additionally, an ablation study reveals that relying on subjective news tends to generate higher returns in bull markets, whereas focusing on factual information yields better results in bear markets. Our code and data are available at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FS-ReasoningAgent-B55F/}.

Cryptocoins (i.e., Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin) are tradable digital assets. Ownerships of cryptocoins are registered on distributed ledgers (i.e., blockchains). Secure encryption techniques guarantee the security of the transactions (transfers of coins among owners), registered into the ledger. Cryptocoins are exchanged for specific trading prices. The extreme volatility of such trading prices across all different sets of crypto-assets remains undisputed. However, the relations between the trading prices across different cryptocoins remains largely unexplored. Major coin exchanges indicate trend correlation to advise for sells or buys. However, price correlations remain largely unexplored. We shed some light on the trend correlations across a large variety of cryptocoins, by investigating their coin/price correlation trends over the past two years. We study the causality between the trends, and exploit the derived correlations to understand the accuracy of state-of-the-art forecasting techniques for time series modeling (e.g., GBMs, LSTM and GRU) of correlated cryptocoins. Our evaluation shows (i) strong correlation patterns between the most traded coins (e.g., Bitcoin and Ether) and other types of cryptocurrencies, and (ii) state-of-the-art time series forecasting algorithms can be used to forecast cryptocoins price trends. We released datasets and code to reproduce our analysis to the research community.

This paper describes an architecture for predicting the price of cryptocurrencies for the next seven days using the Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Historical data of cryptocurrencies and indexes that are considered are Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), and Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) in The architectural performance designed in this paper has been compared with different inputs and neural network models in terms of statistical evaluation criteria. Finally, the proposed method can predict the price of digital currencies in a short time. NTRODUCTION Digital currency is a form of electronic money that operates on the internet and possesses most of the attributes of conventional money, except for its physical absence. A subset of digital currency is cryptocurrency, which is encrypted by specific algorithms. These cryptocurrencies often utilize blockchain technology to record transactions [1]. The main distinction between cryptocurrencies and other digital currencies is the level of security of the former.

This research explores a relatively unexplored area of predicting cryptocurrency staking rewards, offering potential insights to researchers and investors. We investigate two predictive methodologies: a) a straightforward sliding-window average, and b) linear regression models predicated on historical data. The findings reveal that ETH staking rewards can be forecasted with an RMSE within 0.7% and 1.1% of the mean value for 1-day and 7-day look-aheads respectively, using a 7-day sliding-window average approach. Additionally, we discern diverse prediction accuracies across various cryptocurrencies, including SOL, XTZ, ATOM, and MATIC. Linear regression is identified as superior to the moving-window average for perdicting in the short term for XTZ and ATOM. The results underscore the generally stable and predictable nature of staking rewards for most assets, with MATIC presenting a noteworthy exception.

Recent studies using indirect statistical methods estimate that around 70% of traded value on centralized crypto exchanges like Binance, can be characterized as wash trading. This paper turns to NFT markets, where transaction transparency, including analysis of roundtrip trades and common wallet activities, allows for more accurate direct estimation methods to be applied. We find roughly 30% of NFT volume and between 45-95% of traded value, involve wash trading. More importantly, our approach enables a critical evaluation of common indirect estimation methods used in the literature. We find major differences in their effectiveness; some failing entirely. Roundedness filters, like those used in Cong et al. (2023), emerge as the most accurate. In fact, the two approaches can be closely aligned via hyper-parameter optimization if direct data is available.