Watermarking promises a statistical trace of large language model (LLM) use, but real documents, after editing or paraphrasing, rarely arrive as purely human-written or purely machine-generated. This motivates a quantitative question beyond detection: what proportion of a document is generated from a pre-specified watermarked LLM? We study this watermark proportion estimation problem under the Gumbel--max watermarking mechanism, treating the next-token prediction (NTP) distributions as unknown and arbitrary nuisance parameters subject to a non-degeneracy condition. We compare two observation regimes: in the full observation regime, the estimator observes the pseudorandom vector and the selected token at each position; under the more popular setting of pivotal reduction, it observes only a scalar pivot, which follows a one-dimensional Uniform--Beta mixture distribution. Under pivotal reduction, we develop a Laguerre-polynomial estimator and establish a matching information-theoretic lower bound for the sample complexity. For full observation, we introduce an event-counting estimator and show a matching lower bound, yielding a substantially smaller sample complexity. As our results imply, although reducing to pivotal statistics is an elegant and widely used procedure, it is not always sample-efficient for estimating the proportion of watermarks.

Most existing multitask learning approaches are limited by their reliance on task-specific loss functions tailored to the scale and type of each outcome. When outcomes differ across tasks, these losses are generally not directly comparable, which makes it difficult to formulate a unified objective and may limit information sharing across tasks. We propose a multitask transformation framework in which task-specific responses may differ through unknown monotone transformations. Motivated by high-dimensional biological applications in which the predictor dimension may diverge with the sample size while only a common subset of predictors is informative, we consider shared sparsity across tasks. Under this framework, we estimate the target functions and identify important predictors by optimizing a smoothed rank-based criterion with a group-Lasso penalty, implemented through a multitask deep neural network with a shared first layer. We establish the nonasymptotic excess-risk bounds, and variable-selection consistency for the proposed estimator. Simulation studies show that the proposed method achieves competitive prediction and variable-selection performance compared with competing approaches. Analyses of gene-expression studies with continuous, binary, and mixed outcomes further illustrate that the proposed method improves prediction and identifies biologically meaningful shared predictors.

Safety classifiers deployed in production operate under a stationarity assumption that fails silently: when input distributions drift, accuracy degrades with no error signal until ground-truth labels arrive. We present an online monitor that detects distributional shift in classifier scores via a sliding-window KS statistic with empirically calibrated alarm thresholds. In a pre-registered factorial evaluation (4 classifiers $\times$ 5 shift conditions $\times$ 20 seeds $\times$ 2 window sizes; 800 cells), the monitor achieves 86.6% valid detection (mean latency 39.5 steps) across synthetic-onset, real-jailbreak, and adversarial regimes; a classifier $\times$ shift interaction ($η^2 = 0.185$) shows that monitoring must be tuned per classifier. Attempting to recover post-detection coverage via weighted conformal prediction exposes a failure mode: density-ratio estimation collapses for generative classifiers because logistic regression separates source from target perfectly in 3584-4096-dimensional embedding space, clipping all importance weights to zero; projecting to $\leq 32$ dimensions restores coverage. We then extend the framework to gradient-based evasion and give the first threat-model characterisation of score-disagreement monitoring as a canary. We falsify three assumptions: that architectural diversity drives the signal (false, $η^2 = 0.011$), that it is generic out-of-distribution detection (false, GCG-specific, $p < 10^{-12}$), and that an adaptive attacker can suppress it (false while the canary is confident). We derive the exact security boundary, a confidence-gated equilibrium at which a monitor-aware attacker stalls at gap $= 1/(2λ)$, and provide a calibration-free scan martingale achieving false-alarm rate $\leq 1\%$ across all classifiers with no per-model tuning.

Transfer learning leverages knowledge from related source domains to improve learning in a target domain. Recent theoretical advances cover a broad range of regression settings within (generalized) linear models. Despite their diversity, these methods share two common constraints: they assume a known link function or linear structure and require direct access to raw source data. To move beyond these constraints, we propose a source-data-free transfer learning framework based on the single-index model (SIM). Instead of requiring raw source data, our method transfers only summary statistics derived from a generalized Stein's lemma in a one-time communication. This design preserves privacy and avoids side effects caused by dissimilarities of unknown nonlinear link functions across domains. To capture flexible, unknown nonlinearity, we employ a multilayer perceptron guided by the pre-estimated index from the transferred statistics, which significantly mitigates overfitting. Extensive experiments on synthetic data and a real-world application demonstrate consistent improvements over existing (generalized) linear model-based approaches. The proposed framework thus offers a practical, privacy-preserving, and nonlinear-adaptive solution for transfer learning.

Recent progress in flow-based generative modeling has led to models that output high-quality samples while using only a small number of function evaluations. However, at present, there is a lack of similar advances in estimating the model likelihood. In particular, most existing methods either rely on restrictive architectures that enable exact calculations, or use stochastic approximations such as Hutchinson's trace estimator that introduce substantial variance. In this work, we introduce SCAlable LikeLihood distillation of flOw maPs ( SCALLOP). SCALLOP builds on the recently proposed F2D2, a likelihood flow map model that can generate samples and their densities in a small number of function evaluations. While F2D2 uses Hutchinson's estimator during training, we introduce an alternative and more scalable likelihood distillation objective that is Hutchinson-free and admits a vectorized formulation. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of SCALLOP as a Boltzmann generator in molecular science, and further validate its benefit on image datasets. SCALLOP significantly reduces both training variance and training time while consistently improving performance compared to F2D2, and is competitive with the state-of-the-art while achieving up to 10 inference speedup over the fastest baseline.

Many modern generative modeling methods, including diffusion models, normalizing flows, and flow matching, estimate transport maps or plans between distributions without explicitly targeting an optimal transport (OT) map. In applications like generative modeling, the transport cost itself is irrelevant, and this makes it natural to target maps which are more tractable from either a statistical or computational standpoint. In this short note, we formalize the task of estimating any valid transport map in a rigorous minimax framework. One consequence of this framing is that it yields sample complexity lower bounds for any method whose learned object is evaluated as a transport map or plan, including flow matching and diffusion-based generative models, in settings where direct analysis would be challenging due to the analytic complexity of the methods and their target maps. We observe that, under standard, though strong, stability assumptions from the OT literature, estimating any valid transport map is statistically as hard as estimating the OT map. We complement these results with some examples showing that when these stability assumptions fail, alternative transport maps can be learned substantially more accurately than the OT map. Our minimax framing provides a rigorous foundation for understanding the statistical limits of modern transport-based generative methods and clarifies when targeting sub-optimal maps can provide real statistical advantages.

Pervasive data contamination -- stemming from measurement errors, outliers, or adversarial corruption -- has motivated the development of robust statistical methods. In this context, we propose a two-stage Adversarial Contamination-resistant Iterative Hard Thresholding (AC-IHT) algorithm for high-dimensional regression with contamination. Our nonconvex algorithm achieves minimax near-optimal (up to logarithmic terms) estimation by iteratively updating the coefficient vector and the contamination vector with different thresholding scales. We further demonstrate that our AC-IHT estimator is signal-adaptive: under proper signal conditions, it adaptively attains a sharper estimation rate and more accurate support recovery. Moreover, it enjoys the strong oracle property, laying a theoretical foundation for asymptotic inference. Numerical experiments confirm its superior finite-sample performance. Finally, we discuss theoretical extensions of the proposed procedure to generalized linear models and to heavy-tailed noise settings.

The global minimum-variance portfolio (GMVP) is the canonical decision built from an estimated covariance matrix, yet covariance estimators are universally evaluated by matrix-norm loss, which is not the object the decision depends on. We characterise exactly how covariance-estimation error maps into GMVP suboptimality. We prove an exact regret identity and a non-asymptotic bound showing decision regret depends on the estimation error only through its action on the portfolio weights, scaled by portfolio concentration and the conditioning of the true covariance. From this we derive the decision geometry: GMVP regret is invariant to a (p-1)-dimensional projection of the p^2-dimensional error matrix, with invariance to the covariance-scale direction as an exact special case. We then apply the framework to heavy-tailed returns (tail index kappa in (2,4)), establishing the regret convergence rate implied by the centred operator-norm rate, and confirm the theory on a skew-t/t-copula simulation design with pre-registered analysis. The decision-focused advantage is a sharper constant and a concentration discount rather than a faster rate; we report an honest high-conditioning boundary of the rate prediction. The results complement recent decision-focused learning approaches by supplying the exact estimation geometry and consistency theory they lack.

We study the fundamental problem of learning a high-dimensional Gaussian truncated to an unknown halfspace. Lee, Mehrotra and Zampetakis (FOCS'24) recently obtained the first polynomial time algorithm for this problem, but their resulting sample and time complexity bounds are not optimal. Under non-trivial truncation, for any target accuracy $\varepsilon > 0$ and dimension $d$ we give an efficient algorithm that uses $n = \tilde{O}(d^2/\varepsilon^2)$ samples and learns the underlying Gaussian to error $\varepsilon$ in total variation distance. Our algorithm is also fast: its runtime is dominated by the cost of computing the empirical covariance matrix. Both our sample and time complexity are optimal in terms of $d$ and $\varepsilon$ even without truncation: in this regard, we can learn a Gaussian under halfspace truncation for free. The key ingredient behind our result is a novel reinterpretation of the low-degree moments of the truncated Gaussian in terms of a relative truncation parameter. This relative truncation parameter uniquely determines the parameters of the untruncated Gaussian and enables direct parameter recovery. This reinterpretation allows us to circumvent the time intensive projected stochastic gradient descent procedure that is widely used in learning under truncation.

We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders, using nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) regression. A leading strategy employs spectral features - that is, learned features spanning the top eigensubspaces of the operator linking treatments to instruments. We derive a generalization error bound for a two-stage least squares estimator based on spectral features, and gain insights into the method's performance and failure modes. We show that performance depends on two key factors, leading to a clear taxonomy of outcomes. In a good scenario, the approach is optimal. This occurs with strong spectral alignment, meaning the structural function is well-represented by the top eigenfunctions of the conditional operator, coupled with this operator's slow eigenvalue decay, indicating a strong instrument. Performance degrades in a bad scenario: spectral alignment remains strong, but rapid eigenvalue decay (indicating a weaker instrument) demands significantly more samples for effective feature learning. Finally, in the ugly scenario, weak spectral alignment causes the method to fail, regardless of the eigenvalues' characteristics.