Generative state estimators based on probabilistic filters and smoothers are one of the most popular classes of state estimators for robots and autonomous vehicles.

We present the first general purpose framework for marginal maximum a posteriori estimation of probabilistic program variables.

We consider the problem of learning high-dimensional multi-response linear models with structured parameters. By exploiting the noise correlations among different responses, we propose an alternating estimation (AltEst) procedure to estimate the model parameters based on the generalized Dantzig selector (GDS). Under suitable sample size and resampling assumptions, we show that the error of the estimates generated by AltEst, with high probability, converges linearly to certain minimum achievable level, which can be tersely expressed by a few geometric measures, such as Gaussian width of sets related to the parameter structure. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first non-asymptotic statistical guarantee for such AltEst-type algorithm applied to estimation with general structures.

We study the problem of designing models for machine learning tasks defined on sets. In contrast to the traditional approach of operating on fixed dimensional vectors, we consider objective functions defined on sets and are invariant to permutations. Such problems are widespread, ranging from the estimation of population statistics, to anomaly detection in piezometer data of embankment dams, to cosmology. Our main theorem characterizes the permutation invariant objective functions and provides a family of functions to which any permutation invariant objective function must belong. This family of functions has a special structure which enables us to design a deep network architecture that can operate on sets and which can be deployed on a variety of scenarios including both unsupervised and supervised learning tasks. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on population statistic estimation, point cloud classification, set expansion, and outlier detection.

We study the estimation of the latent variable Gaussian graphical model (LVGGM), where the precision matrix is the superposition of a sparse matrix and a low-rank matrix. In order to speed up the estimation of the sparse plus low-rank components, we propose a sparsity constrained maximum likelihood estimator based on matrix factorization and an efficient alternating gradient descent algorithm with hard thresholding to solve it. Our algorithm is orders of magnitude faster than the convex relaxation based methods for LVGGM. In addition, we prove that our algorithm is guaranteed to linearly converge to the unknown sparse and low-rank components up to the optimal statistical precision. Experiments on both synthetic and genomic data demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm over the state-of-the-art algorithms and corroborate our theory.

The sparse matrix estimation problem consists of estimating the distribution of an $n\times n$ matrix $Y$, from a sparsely observed single instance of this matrix where the entries of $Y$ are independent random variables. This captures a wide array of problems; special instances include matrix completion in the context of recommendation systems, graphon estimation, and community detection in (mixed membership) stochastic block models. Inspired by classical collaborative filtering for recommendation systems, we propose a novel iterative, collaborative filtering-style algorithm for matrix estimation in this generic setting. We show that the mean squared error (MSE) of our estimator converges to $0$ at the rate of $O(d^2 (pn)^{-2/5})$ as long as $\omega(d^5 n)$ random entries from a total of $n^2$ entries of $Y$ are observed (uniformly sampled), $\E[Y]$ has rank $d$, and the entries of $Y$ have bounded support. The maximum squared error across all entries converges to $0$ with high probability as long as we observe a little more, $\Omega(d^5 n \ln^5(n))$ entries. Our results are the best known sample complexity results in this generality.

The increasing size and complexity of scientific data could dramatically enhance discovery and prediction for basic scientific applications, e.g., neuroscience, genetics, systems biology, etc. Realizing this potential, however, requires novel statistical analysis methods that are both interpretable and predictive. We introduce the Union of Intersections (UoI) method, a flexible, modular, and scalable framework for enhanced model selection and estimation. The method performs model selection and model estimation through intersection and union operations, respectively. We show that UoI can satisfy the bi-criteria of low-variance and nearly unbiased estimation of a small number of interpretable features, while maintaining high-quality prediction accuracy. We perform extensive numerical investigation to evaluate a UoI algorithm ($UoI_{Lasso}$) on synthetic and real data. In doing so, we demonstrate the extraction of interpretable functional networks from human electrophysiology recordings as well as the accurate prediction of phenotypes from genotype-phenotype data with reduced features. We also show (with the $UoI_{L1Logistic}$ and $UoI_{CUR}$ variants of the basic framework) improved prediction parsimony for classification and matrix factorization on several benchmark biomedical data sets. These results suggest that methods based on UoI framework could improve interpretation and prediction in data-driven discovery across scientific fields.

A differentiable estimation of the distance between two distributions based on samples is important for many deep learning tasks. One such estimation is maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). However, MMD suffers from its sensitive kernel bandwidth hyper-parameter, weak gradients, and large mini-batch size when used as a training objective. In this paper, we propose population matching discrepancy (PMD) for estimating the distribution distance based on samples, as well as an algorithm to learn the parameters of the distributions using PMD as an objective. PMD is defined as the minimum weight matching of sample populations from each distribution, and we prove that PMD is a strongly consistent estimator of the first Wasserstein metric. We apply PMD to two deep learning tasks, domain adaptation and generative modeling. Empirical results demonstrate that PMD overcomes the aforementioned drawbacks of MMD, and outperforms MMD on both tasks in terms of the performance as well as the convergence speed.

In neuroscience, the similarity matrix of neural activity patterns in response to different sensory stimuli or under different cognitive states reflects the structure of neural representational space. Existing methods derive point estimations of neural activity patterns from noisy neural imaging data, and the similarity is calculated from these point estimations. We show that this approach translates structured noise from estimated patterns into spurious bias structure in the resulting similarity matrix, which is especially severe when signal-to-noise ratio is low and experimental conditions cannot be fully randomized in a cognitive task. We propose an alternative Bayesian framework for computing representational similarity in which we treat the covariance structure of neural activity patterns as a hyper-parameter in a generative model of the neural data, and directly estimate this covariance structure from imaging data while marginalizing over the unknown activity patterns. Converting the estimated covariance structure into a correlation matrix offers a much less biased estimate of neural representational similarity. Our method can also simultaneously estimate a signal-to-noise map that informs where the learned representational structure is supported more strongly, and the learned covariance matrix can be used as a structured prior to constrain Bayesian estimation of neural activity patterns.

The softmax representation of probabilities for categorical variables plays a prominent role in modern machine learning with numerous applications in areas such as large scale classification, neural language modeling and recommendation systems. However, softmax estimation is very expensive for large scale inference because of the high cost associated with computing the normalizing constant. Here, we introduce an efficient approximation to softmax probabilities which takes the form of a rigorous lower bound on the exact probability. This bound is expressed as a product over pairwise probabilities and it leads to scalable estimation based on stochastic optimization. It allows us to perform doubly stochastic estimation by subsampling both training instances and class labels. We show that the new bound has interesting theoretical properties and we demonstrate its use in classification problems.