To fill this gap, we introduce a nonparametric causal inference framework for analyzing "closed-loop" designs, which use

The conditional quantile treatment effect (CQTE) can provide insight into the effect of a treatment beyond the conditional average treatment effect (CA TE). This ability to provide information over multiple quantiles of the response makes the CQTE especially valuable in cases where the effect of a treatment is not well-modelled by a location shift, even conditionally on the covariates. Nevertheless, the estimation of the CQTE is challenging and often depends upon the smoothness of the individual quantiles as a function of the covariates rather than smoothness of the CQTE itself. This is in stark contrast to the CA TE where it is possible to obtain high-quality estimates which have less dependency upon the smoothness of the nuisance parameters when the CA TE itself is smooth. Moreover, relative smoothness of the CQTE lacks the interpretability of smoothness of the CA TE making it less clear whether it is a reasonable assumption to make.

The hazard ratio from the Cox proportional hazards model is a ubiquitous summary of treatment effect. However, when hazards are non-proportional, the hazard ratio can lose a stable causal interpretation and become study-dependent because it effectively averages time-varying effects with weights determined by follow-up and censoring. We consider the average hazard (AH) as an alternative causal estimand: a population-level person-time event rate that remains well-defined and interpretable without assuming proportional hazards. Although AH can be estimated nonparametrically and regression-style adjustments have been proposed, existing approaches do not provide a general framework for flexible, high-dimensional nuisance estimation with valid sqrt{n} inference. We address this gap by developing a semiparametric, doubly robust framework for covariate-adjusted AH. We establish pathwise differentiability of AH in the nonparametric model, derive its efficient influence function, and construct cross-fitted, debiased estimators that leverage machine learning for nuisance estimation while retaining asymptotically normal, sqrt{n}-consistent inference under mild product-rate conditions. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed estimator achieves small bias and near-nominal confidence-interval coverage across proportional and non-proportional hazards settings, including crossing-hazards regimes where Cox-based summaries can be unstable. We illustrate practical utility in comparative effectiveness research by comparing immunotherapy regimens for advanced melanoma using SEER-Medicare linked data.

Applied work with interference typically models outcomes as functions of own treatment and a low-dimensional exposure mapping of others' treatments, even when that mapping may be misspecified. This raises a basic question: what policy object are exposure-based estimands implicitly targeting, and how should we interpret their direct and spillover components relative to the underlying policy question? We take as primitive the marginal policy effect, defined as the effect of a small change in the treatment probability under the actual experimental design, and show that any researcher-chosen exposure mapping induces a unique pseudo-true outcome model. This model is the best approximation to the underlying potential outcomes that depends only on the user-chosen exposure. Utilizing that representation, the marginal policy effect admits a canonical decomposition into exposure-based direct and spillover effects, and each component provides its optimal approximation to the corresponding oracle objects that would be available if interference were fully known. We then focus on a setting that nests important empirical and theoretical applications in which both local network spillovers and global spillovers, such as market equilibrium, operate. There, the marginal policy effect further decomposes asymptotically into direct, local, and global channels. An important implication is that many existing methods are more robust than previously understood once we reinterpret their targets as channel-specific components of this pseudo-true policy estimand. Simulations and a semi-synthetic experiment calibrated to a large cash-transfer experiment show that these components can be recovered in realistic experimental designs.

Informally,it'shardtotellwhetheryour friends have similar outcomes because they were influenced by your treatment, or whether it's due to some common trait that caused you to be friends in the firstplace.

Covariate-dependent uncertainty quantification in simulation-based inference is crucial for high-stakes decision-making but remains challenging due to the limitations of existing methods such as conformal prediction and classical bootstrap, which struggle with covariate-specific conditioning. We propose Efficient Quantile-Regression-Based Generative Metamodeling (E-QRGMM), a novel framework that accelerates the quantile-regression-based generative metamodeling (QRGMM) approach by integrating cubic Hermite interpolation with gradient estimation. Theoretically, we show that E-QRGMM preserves the convergence rate of the original QRGMM while reducing grid complexity from $O(n^{1/2})$ to $O(n^{1/5})$ for the majority of quantile levels, thereby substantially improving computational efficiency. Empirically, E-QRGMM achieves a superior trade-off between distributional accuracy and training speed compared to both QRGMM and other advanced deep generative models on synthetic and practical datasets. Moreover, by enabling bootstrap-based construction of confidence intervals for arbitrary estimands of interest, E-QRGMM provides a practical solution for covariate-dependent uncertainty quantification.

Within heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) analysis, various estimands have been proposed to capture the effect of a treatment conditional on covariates. Recently, the conditional quantile comparator (CQC) has emerged as a promising estimand, offering quantile-level summaries akin to the conditional quantile treatment effect (CQTE) while preserving some interpretability of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). It achieves this by summarising the treated response conditional on both the covariates and the untreated response. Despite these desirable properties, the CQC's current estimation is limited by the need to first estimate the difference in conditional cumulative distribution functions and then invert it. This inversion obscures the CQC estimate, hampering our ability to both model and interpret it. To address this, we propose the first direct estimator of the CQC, allowing for explicit modelling and parameterisation. This explicit parameterisation enables better interpretation of our estimate while also providing a means to constrain and inform the model. We show, both theoretically and empirically, that our estimation error depends directly on the complexity of the CQC itself, improving upon the existing estimation procedure. Furthermore, it retains the desirable double robustness property with respect to nuisance parameter estimation. We further show our method to outperform existing procedures in estimation accuracy across multiple data scenarios while varying sample size and nuisance error. Finally, we apply it to real-world data from an employment scheme, uncovering a reduced range of potential earnings improvement as participant age increases.

The standard tools of causal inference have been developed to answer simple causal queries which can be easily formalized as a small number of statistical estimands in the context of a particular structural causal model (SCM); however, scientific theories often make diffuse predictions about a large number of causal variables. This article proposes a framework for parameterizing such complex causal queries as the maximum difference in causal effects associated with two sets of causal variables that have a researcher specified probability of occurring. We term this estimand the Maximum Causal Set Effect (MCSE) and develop an estimator for it that is asymptotically consistent and conservative in finite samples under assumptions that are standard in the causal inference literature. This estimator is also asymptotically normal and amenable to the non-parametric bootstrap, facilitating classical statistical inference about this novel estimand. We compare this estimator to more common latent variable approaches and find that it can uncover larger causal effects in both real world and simulated data.