The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a widely-used statistical model for handling sequential data. However, the presence of missing observations in real-world datasets often complicates the application of the model. The EM algorithm and Gibbs samplers can be used to estimate the model, yet suffering from various problems including non-convexity, high computational complexity and slow mixing. In this paper, we propose a collapsed Gibbs sampler that efficiently samples from HMMs' posterior by integrating out both the missing observations and the corresponding latent states. The proposed sampler is fast due to its three advantages. First, it achieves an estimation accuracy that is comparable to existing methods. Second, it can produce a larger Effective Sample Size (ESS) per iteration, which can be justified theoretically and numerically. Third, when the number of missing entries is large, the sampler has a significant smaller computational complexity per iteration compared to other methods, thus is faster computationally. In summary, the proposed sampling algorithm is fast both computationally and theoretically and is particularly advantageous when there are a lot of missing entries. Finally, empirical evaluations based on numerical simulations and real data analysis demonstrate that the proposed algorithm consistently outperforms existing algorithms in terms of time complexity and sampling efficiency (measured in ESS).

LLM-as-judge evaluation has become the de facto standard for scaling model assessment, but the practice is statistically unsound: uncalibrated scores can invert preferences, naive confidence intervals on uncalibrated scores achieve near-0% coverage, and importance-weighted estimators collapse under limited overlap despite high effective sample size (ESS). We introduce Causal Judge Evaluation (CJE), a framework that fixes all three failures. On n=4,961 Chatbot Arena prompts (after filtering from 5k), CJE achieves 99% pairwise ranking accuracy at full sample size (94% averaged across configurations), matching oracle quality, at 14x lower cost (for ranking 5 policies) by calibrating a 16x cheaper judge on just 5% oracle labels (~250 labels). CJE combines three components: (i) AutoCal-R, reward calibration via mean-preserving isotonic regression; (ii) SIMCal-W, weight stabilization via stacking of S-monotone candidates; and (iii) Oracle-Uncertainty Aware (OUA) inference that propagates calibration uncertainty into confidence intervals. We formalize the Coverage-Limited Efficiency (CLE) diagnostic, which explains why IPS-style estimators fail even when ESS exceeds 90%: the logger rarely visits regions where target policies concentrate. Key findings: SNIPS inverts rankings even with reward calibration (38% pairwise, negative Kendall's tau) due to weight instability; calibrated IPS remains near-random (47%) despite weight stabilization, consistent with CLE; OUA improves coverage from near-0% to ~86% (Direct) and ~96% (stacked-DR), where naive intervals severely under-cover.

First, we propose an efficient likelihood-free adversarial training method to train a Markov chain and mimic a given data distribution.

HMC include being sensitive to parameter tuning and being restricted to continuous distributions.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Efficient sampling from high-dimensional and multimodal unnormalized probability distributions is a central challenge in many areas of science and machine learning. We focus on Boltzmann generators (BGs) that aim to sample the Boltzmann distribution of physical systems, such as molecules, at a given temperature. Classical variational approaches that minimize the reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence are prone to mode collapse, while annealing-based methods, commonly using geometric schedules, can suffer from mass teleportation and rely heavily on schedule tuning. We introduce Constrained Mass Transport (CMT), a variational framework that generates intermediate distributions under constraints on both the KL divergence and the entropy decay between successive steps. These constraints enhance distributional overlap, mitigate mass teleportation, and counteract premature convergence. Across standard BG benchmarks and the here introduced ELIL tetrapeptide, the largest system studied to date without access to samples from molecular dynamics, CMT consistently surpasses state-of-the-art variational methods, achieving more than 2.5x higher effective sample size while avoiding mode collapse.

At each layer, the flow maps atoms' positions into learned SE(3)