This paper presents a real time, data driven decision support framework for epidemic control. We combine a compartmental epidemic model with sequential Bayesian inference and reinforcement learning (RL) controllers that adaptively choose intervention levels to balance disease burden, such as intensive care unit (ICU) load, against socio economic costs. We construct a context specific cost function using empirical experiments and expert feedback. We study two RL policies: an ICU threshold rule computed via Monte Carlo grid search, and a policy based on a posterior averaged Q learning agent. We validate the framework by fitting the epidemic model to publicly available ICU occupancy data from the COVID 19 pandemic in England and then generating counterfactual roll out scenarios under each RL controller, which allows us to compare the RL policies to the historical government strategy. Over a 300 day period and for a range of cost parameters, both controllers substantially reduce ICU burden relative to the observed interventions, illustrating how Bayesian sequential learning combined with RL can support the design of epidemic control policies.

Large-scale outbreaks of epidemics, misinformation, or other harmful contagions pose significant threats to human society, yet the fundamental question of whether an emerging outbreak will escalate into a major epidemic or naturally die out remains largely unaddressed. This problem is challenging, partially due to inadequate data during the early stages of outbreaks and also because established models focus on average behaviors of large epidemics rather than the stochastic nature of small transmission chains. Here, we introduce the first systematic framework for forecasting whether initial transmission events will amplify into major outbreaks or fade into extinction during early stages, when intervention strategies can still be effectively implemented. Using extensive data from stochastic spreading models, we developed a deep learning framework that predicts early-stage spreading outcomes in real-time. Validation across Erdős-Rényi and Barabási-Albert networks with varying infectivity levels shows our method accurately forecasts stochastic spreading events well before potential outbreaks, demonstrating robust performance across different network structures and infectivity scenarios.To address the challenge of sparse data during early outbreak stages, we further propose a pretrain-finetune framework that leverages diverse simulation data for pretraining and adapts to specific scenarios through targeted fine-tuning. The pretrain-finetune framework consistently outperforms baseline models, achieving superior performance even when trained on limited scenario-specific data. To our knowledge, this work presents the first framework for predicting stochastic take-off versus die-out. This framework provides valuable insights for epidemic preparedness and public health decision-making, enabling more informed early intervention strategies.

This study presents an integrated approach to understanding epidemic dynamics through a stochastic spatio-temporal simulation model on a multiplex network, blending physical and informational layers. The physical layer maps the geographic movement of individuals, while the information layer tracks the spread of knowledge and health behavior via social interactions. We explore the interplay between physical mobility, information flow, and epidemic outcomes by simulating disease spread within this dual-structured network. Our model employs stochastic elements to mirror human behavior, mobility, and information dissemination uncertainties. Through simulations, we assess the impact of network structure, mobility patterns, and information spread speed on epidemic dynamics. The findings highlight the crucial role of effective communication in curbing disease transmission, even in highly mobile societies. Additionally, our agent-based simulation allows for real-time scenario analysis through a user interface, offering insights into leveraging physical and informational networks for epidemic control. This research sheds light on designing strategic interventions in complex social systems to manage disease outbreaks.

Modelling disease outbreak models remains challenging due to incomplete surveillance data, noise, and limited access to standardized datasets. We have created BIGBOY1.2, an open synthetic dataset generator that creates configurable epidemic time series and population-level trajectories suitable for benchmarking modelling, forecasting, and visualisation. The framework supports SEIR and SIR-like compartmental logic, custom seasonality, and noise injection to mimic real reporting artifacts. BIGBOY1.2 can produce datasets with diverse characteristics, making it suitable for comparing traditional epidemiological models (e.g., SIR, SEIR) with modern machine learning approaches (e.g., SVM, neural networks).

Advancing epidemic dynamics forecasting is vital for targeted interventions and safeguarding public health. Current approaches mainly fall into two categories: mechanism-based and data-driven models. Mechanism-based models are constrained by predefined compartmental structures and oversimplified system assumptions, limiting their ability to model complex real-world dynamics, while data-driven models focus solely on intrinsic data dependencies without physical or epidemiological constraints, risking biased or misleading representations. Although recent studies have attempted to integrate epidemiological knowledge into neural architectures, most of them fail to reconcile explicit physical priors with neural representations. To overcome these obstacles, we introduce Epi$^2$-Net, a Epidemic Forecasting Framework built upon Physics-Inspired Neural Networks. Specifically, we propose reconceptualizing epidemic transmission from the physical transport perspective, introducing the concept of neural epidemic transport. Further, we present a physic-inspired deep learning framework, and integrate physical constraints with neural modules to model spatio-temporal patterns of epidemic dynamics. Experiments on real-world datasets have demonstrated that Epi$^2$-Net outperforms state-of-the-art methods in epidemic forecasting, providing a promising solution for future epidemic containment. The code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Epi-2-Net-48CE.

Globally, the outbreaks of infectious diseases have exerted an extremely profound and severe influence on health security and the economy. During the critical phases of epidemics, devising effective intervention measures poses a significant challenge to both the academic and practical arenas. There is numerous research based on reinforcement learning to optimize intervention measures of infectious diseases. Nevertheless, most of these efforts have been confined within the differential equation based on infectious disease models. Although a limited number of studies have incorporated reinforcement learning methodologies into individual-based infectious disease models, the models employed therein have entailed simplifications and limitations, rendering it incapable of modeling the complexity and dynamics inherent in infectious disease transmission. We establish a decision-making framework based on an individual agent-based transmission model, utilizing reinforcement learning to continuously explore and develop a strategy function. The framework's validity is verified through both experimental and theoretical approaches. Covasim, a detailed and widely used agent-based disease transmission model, was modified to support reinforcement learning research. We conduct an exhaustive exploration of the application efficacy of multiple algorithms across diverse action spaces. Furthermore, we conduct an innovative preliminary theoretical analysis concerning the issue of "time coverage". The results of the experiment robustly validate the effectiveness and feasibility of the methodological framework of this study. The coping strategies gleaned therefrom prove highly efficacious in suppressing the expansion of the epidemic scale and safeguarding the stability of the economic system, thereby providing crucial reference perspectives for the formulation of global public health security strategies.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. conducts a news conference to discuss the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's latest Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network survey.Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/AP While his anti-vaccine allies swooned and scientists cringed, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. used his first-ever press conference this week, in response to new data showing an apparent increase in the number of autistic kids, to promote a variety of debunked, half-true, and deeply ableist ideas about autism. He painted the condition as a terrifying "disease" that "destroys," as he put it, children and their families. Kennedy made it clear he planned to use his powerful role as the person in charge of a massive federal agency devoted to protecting public health to promote the idea that autism is caused by "environmental factors," a still-speculative thesis that's clearly a short walk towards advancing his real aim: blaming vaccines. Kennedy has spent the last 20 years promoting anti-vaccine rhetoric, falsely and repeatedly claiming that vaccines are linked to autism. Yet as the press conference made clear, Kennedy knows startlingly little about autism.

Accurate epidemic forecasting is crucial for effective disease control and prevention. Traditional compartmental models often struggle to estimate temporally and spatially varying epidemiological parameters, while deep learning models typically overlook disease transmission dynamics and lack interpretability in the epidemiological context. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Causal Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network (CSTGNN), a hybrid framework that integrates a Spatio-Contact SIR model with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to capture the spatiotemporal propagation of epidemics. Inter-regional human mobility exhibits continuous and smooth spatiotemporal patterns, leading to adjacent graph structures that share underlying mobility dynamics. To model these dynamics, we employ an adaptive static connectivity graph to represent the stable components of human mobility and utilize a temporal dynamics model to capture fluctuations within these patterns. By integrating the adaptive static connectivity graph with the temporal dynamics graph, we construct a dynamic graph that encapsulates the comprehensive properties of human mobility networks. Additionally, to capture temporal trends and variations in infectious disease spread, we introduce a temporal decomposition model to handle temporal dependence. This model is then integrated with a dynamic graph convolutional network for epidemic forecasting. We validate our model using real-world datasets at the provincial level in China and the state level in Germany. Extensive studies demonstrate that our method effectively models the spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious diseases, providing a valuable tool for forecasting and intervention strategies. Furthermore, analysis of the learned parameters offers insights into disease transmission mechanisms, enhancing the interpretability and practical applicability of our model.

The necessity of achieving an effective balance between minimizing the losses associated with restricting human mobility and ensuring hospital capacity has gained significant attention in the aftermath of COVID-19. Reinforcement learning (RL)-based strategies for human mobility management have recently advanced in addressing the dynamic evolution of cities and epidemics; however, they still face challenges in achieving coordinated control at the township level and adapting to cities of varying scales. To address the above issues, we propose a multi-agent RL approach that achieves Pareto optimality in managing hospital capacity and human mobility (H2-MARL), applicable across cities of different scales. We first develop a township-level infection model with online-updatable parameters to simulate disease transmission and construct a city-wide dynamic spatiotemporal epidemic simulator. On this basis, H2-MARL is designed to treat each division as an agent, with a trade-off dual-objective reward function formulated and an experience replay buffer enriched with expert knowledge built. To evaluate the effectiveness of the model, we construct a township-level human mobility dataset containing over one billion records from four representative cities of varying scales. Extensive experiments demonstrate that H2-MARL has the optimal dual-objective trade-off capability, which can minimize hospital capacity strain while minimizing human mobility restriction loss. Meanwhile, the applicability of the proposed model to epidemic control in cities of varying scales is verified, which showcases its feasibility and versatility in practical applications.

In this work, we integrate the predictive capabilities of compartmental disease dynamics models with machine learning ability to analyze complex, high-dimensional data and uncover patterns that conventional models may overlook. Specifically, we present a proof of concept demonstrating the application of data-driven methods and deep neural networks to a recently introduced SIR-type model with social features, including a saturated incidence rate, to improve epidemic prediction and forecasting. Our results show that a robust data augmentation strategy trough suitable data-driven models can improve the reliability of Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FNNs) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Networks (NARs), making them viable alternatives to Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). This approach enhances the ability to handle nonlinear dynamics and offers scalable, data-driven solutions for epidemic forecasting, prioritizing predictive accuracy over the constraints of physics-based models. Numerical simulations of the post-lockdown phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy and Spain validate our methodology.