Modern multivariate regression problems involve several related outcomes whose regression effects are not only nonlinear, heterogeneous, and outcome-specific, but also where the residual dependence among outcomes is scientifically meaningful. Existing multivariate Bayesian tree-based methods typically address only part of this problem: some impose substantial sharing of tree architecture across outcomes, which is overly restrictive when responses depend on distinct predictors or effect modifiers, while others accommodate residual dependence but retain simpler mean structures. This paper develops multiVCBART, a multivariate varying-coefficient Bayesian additive regression tree framework that jointly models flexible outcome-specific coefficient surfaces and a sparse residual precision matrix. Each entry of the coefficient matrix $B(x)$ is represented by an independent BART ensemble, allowing predictor effects to vary nonlinearly with modifiers $x$ across outcomes, while a Graphical Horseshoe prior on the precision matrix $Ω$ captures parsimonious residual conditional dependence. To permit efficient computation, we introduce a sampler that reduces the multivariate Gaussian likelihood to a sequence of scalar pseudo-response updates, decoupling the tree backfitting from the Graphical Horseshoe step. Theoretically, we establish the first posterior contraction rates for a multivariate BART model with jointly estimated residual dependence, proving near-minimax adaptation to underlying smoothness and structural sparsity. Empirically, multiVCBART outperforms existing multivariate tree models and Bayesian SUR competitors on sparse, high-dimensional datasets. Finally, in a re-analysis of the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer dataset, our method identifies distinct biomarker signals and recovers a coherent residual pharmacologic network.

Reliably quantifying predictive uncertainty is difficult for complex, high-dimensional, or misspecified models. Both fully Bayesian and bootstrap resampling methods provide principled uncertainty estimates but are often too expensive for modern machine-learning models because they require posterior sampling or repeated model refitting. We introduce Ribbon, a scalable approximation to Dirichlet-reweighted bootstrap uncertainty. Ribbon replaces repeated refitting with an influence-function linearization around a single fitted model, preserving the first-order data-reweighting structure of the Bayesian bootstrap while requiring only post-hoc linear algebra. Ribbon approximates the Bayesian-bootstrap or weighted-likelihood-bootstrap refitting target. With a general concentration parameter, Ribbon gives a calibrated Dirichlet-reweighting family whose uncertainty scale can be tuned on validation data. We show that Ribbon is asymptotically equivalent to a flat-prior Laplace approximation under correct likelihood specification and recovers the robust sandwich covariance under misspecification. Across synthetic regression, MNIST classification, and California Housing benchmarks, Ribbon provides competitive predictive performance and improved calibration in several settings while avoiding repeated model retraining.

As foundation Vision-Language Models (VLMs) unlock fine-tuning on smaller datasets while leveraging large-scale pre-training data, machine unlearning becomes critical in addressing privacy concerns and regulatory compliance. Task vector, representing the difference between parameters of models fine-tuned with and without specific data, is a popular retraining-free unlearning strategy. However, we observe that task vectors exhibit substantial sensitivity to various fine-tuning configurations, resulting in unstable unlearning effectiveness that correlates negatively with the prediction-level variance. While aggregating multiple functions (e.g., VLM with classifier) whose parameters are represented by different task vectors reduces function variance and improves unlearning, the computational cost of obtaining numerous task vectors and aggregating functions is computationally high. Thus, in order to capture the space of task vectors induced by diverse fine-tuning strategies, we propose modeling it within the convex hull of (Q 1)-simplex whose vertices represent Q task vectors. Although a function ensemble can be formed by sampling numerous task vectors from such a simplex, we derive a closed-form ensemble of an infinite number of functions whose parameters are uniformly sampled from the simplex, enabling efficient function-level task vector ensembling with enhanced unlearning performance. Extensive experiments and analyses across diverse datasets and scenarios demonstrate the efficacy of our method.

Anomaly detection is a crucial task in data mining, focusing on identifying data points that deviate significantly from the main patterns in the data. This paper introduces Anomaly Detection by an Ensemble of Random Pairs of Hyperspheres (ADERH), a new isolation-based technique leveraging two key observations: (i) anomalies are comparatively rare, and (ii) they typically deviate stronger from general patterns than normal data points. Drawing on a δ-separation argument, ADERH constructs an ensemble of multi-scale hyperspheres built upon randomly paired data points to identify anomalies. To address inevitable overlaps between anomalous and normal regions in the feature space, ADERH integrates two complementary concepts: Pitch, which highlights points near hypersphere boundaries, and NDensity, which down-weights hyperspheres centered on sparse (and often anomalous) regions.

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems. Several Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods exist that are either cheap or reliable, but not both. We propose a post-hoc, sampling-based UQ method for overparameterized networks at the end of training.

Leveraging the lottery ticket hypothesis, novel training GMV pipeline, activates which diverse includes sub-net mix works ed-vie within w generation, a single GNN and multi-vie through w a decomposition and learning. This approach simultaneously broadens "views" from the data, model, and optimization perspectives during training to enhance the generalization additional prediction capabilities heads of into GNNs.

Predictions in the form of sets of probability distributions, so-called credal sets, provide a suitable means to represent a learner's epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a theoretically grounded approach to credal prediction based on the statistical notion of relative likelihood: The target of prediction is the set of all (conditional) probability distributions produced by the collection of plausible models, namely those models whose relative likelihood exceeds a specified threshold. This threshold has an intuitive interpretation and allows for controlling the trade-off between correctness and precision of credal predictions. We tackle the problem of approximating credal sets defined in this way by means of suitably modified ensemble learning techniques. To validate our approach, we illustrate its effectiveness by experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrating superior uncertainty representation without compromising predictive performance. We also compare our method against several state-of-the-art baselines in credal prediction.

We present HyPINO, a multi-physics neural operator designed for zero-shot generalization across a broad class of PDEs without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Our approach combines a Swin Transformer-based hypernetwork with mixed supervision: (i) labeled data from analytical solutions generated via the Method of Manufactured Solutions (MMS), and (ii) unlabeled samples optimized using physics-informed objectives. The model maps PDE parameterizations to target Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) and can handle linear elliptic, hyperbolic, and parabolic equations in two dimensions with varying source terms, geometries, and mixed Dirichlet/Neumann boundary conditions, including interior boundaries. HyPINO achieves strong zero-shot accuracy on seven benchmark problems from PINN literature, outperforming U-Nets, Poseidon, and Physics-Informed Neural Operators (PINO). Further, we introduce an iterative refinement procedure that treats the residual of the generated PINN as "delta PDE" and performs another forward pass to generate a corrective PINN. Summing their contributions and repeating this process forms an ensemble whose combined solution progressively reduces the error on six benchmarks and achieves a >100 lower L2 loss in the best case, while retaining forward-only inference. Additionally, we evaluate the fine-tuning behavior of PINNs initialized by HyPINO and show that they converge faster and to lower final error than both randomly initialized and Reptilemeta-learned PINNs on five benchmarks, performing on par on the remaining two. Our results highlight the potential of this scalable approach as a foundation for extending neural operators toward solving increasingly complex, nonlinear, and high-dimensional PDE problems. The code and model weights are publicly available at https://github.com/rbischof/hypino.

In the zero-shot policy transfer setting in reinforcement learning, the goal is to train an agent on a fixed set of training environments so that it can generalise to similar, but unseen, testing environments. Previous work has shown that policy distillation after training can sometimes produce a policy that outperforms the original in the testing environments. However, it is not yet entirely clear why that is, or what data should be used to distil the policy. In this paper, we prove, under certain assumptions, a generalisation bound for policy distillation after training. The theory provides two practical insights: for improved generalisation, you should 1) train an ensemble of distilled policies, and 2) distil it on as much data from the training environments as possible. We empirically verify that these insights hold in more general settings, when the assumptions required for the theory no longer hold. Finally, we demonstrate that an ensemble of policies distilled on a diverse dataset can generalise significantly better than the original agent.

In recent years, multicalibration has emerged as a desirable learning objective for ensuring that a predictor is calibrated across a rich collection of overlapping subpopulations. Existing approaches typically achieve multicalibration by discretizing the predictor's output space and iteratively adjusting its output values. However, this discretization approach departs from the standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) pipeline, introduces rounding error and an additional sensitive hyperparameter, and may distort the predictor's outputs in ways that hinder downstream decision-making. In this work, we propose a discretization-free multicalibration method that directly optimizes an empirical risk objective over an ensemble of depth-two decision trees. Our ERM approach can be implemented using off-the-shelf tree ensemble learning methods such as LightGBM. Our algorithm provably achieves multicalibration, provided that the data distribution satisfies a technical condition we term as loss saturation. Across multiple datasets, our empirical evaluation shows that this condition is always met in practice. Our discretization-free algorithm consistently matches or outperforms existing multicalibration approaches-- even when evaluated using a discretization-based multicalibration metric that shares its discretization granularity with the baselines. Code to replicate the results in this work is available at https://github.com/hjenryin/