We study parametric change-point detection, where the goal is to identify distributional changes in time series, under local differential privacy. In the non-private setting, we derive improved finite-sample accuracy guarantees for a change-point detection algorithm based on the generalized log-likelihood ratio test, via martingale methods. In the private setting, we propose two locally differentially private algorithms based on randomized response and binary mechanisms, and analyze their theoretical performance. We derive bounds on detection accuracy and validate our results through empirical evaluation. Our results characterize the statistical cost of local differential privacy in change-point detection and show how privacy degrades performance relative to a non-private benchmark. As part of this analysis, we establish a structural result for strong data processing inequalities (SDPI), proving that SDPI coefficients for Rényi divergences and their symmetric variants (Jeffreys-Rényi divergences) are achieved by binary input distributions. These results on SDPI coefficients are also of independent interest, with applications to statistical estimation, data compression, and Markov chain mixing.

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Recent works on compression of large language models (LLM) using quantization considered reparameterizing the architecture such that weights are distributed on the sphere. This demonstratively improves the ability to quantize by increasing the mathematical notion of coherence, resulting in fewer weight outliers without affecting the network output. In this work, we aim to further exploit this spherical geometry of the weights when performing quantization by considering Pyramid Vector Quantization (PVQ) for large language models. Arranging points evenly on the sphere is notoriously difficult, especially in high dimensions, and in case approximate solutions exists, representing points explicitly in a codebook is typically not feasible due to its additional memory cost. Instead, PVQ uses a fixed integer lattice on the sphere by projecting points onto the 1-sphere, which allows for efficient encoding and decoding without requiring an explicit codebook in memory. To obtain a practical algorithm, we propose to combine PVQ with scale quantization for which we derive theoretically optimal quantizations, under empirically verified assumptions. Further, we extend pyramid vector quantization to use Hessian information to minimize quantization error under expected feature activations, instead of only relying on weight magnitudes. Experimentally, we achieves state-of-the-art quantization performance with pareto-optimal trade-off between performance and bits per weight and bits per activation, compared to compared methods. On weight-only, we find that we can quantize a Llama-3 70B model to 3.25 bits per weight and retain 98\% accuracy on downstream tasks.

This paper focuses on best-arm identification in multi-armed bandits with bounded rewards. We develop an algorithm that is a fusion of lil-UCB and KL-LUCB, offering the best qualities of the two algorithms in one method. This is achieved by proving a novel anytime confidence bound for the mean of bounded distributions, which is the analogue of the LIL-type bounds recently developed for sub-Gaussian distributions. We corroborate our theoretical results with numerical experiments based on the New Yorker Cartoon Caption Contest.

The selection of the assumed effect size (AES) critically determines the duration of an experiment, and hence its accuracy and efficiency. Traditionally, experimenters determine AES based on domain knowledge. However, this method becomes impractical for online experimentation services managing numerous experiments, and a more automated approach is hence of great demand. We initiate the study of data-driven AES selection in for online experimentation services by introducing two solutions. The first employs a three-layer Gaussian Mixture Model considering the heteroskedasticity across experiments, and it seeks to estimate the true expected effect size among positive experiments. The second method, grounded in utility theory, aims to determine the optimal effect size by striking a balance between the experiment's cost and the precision of decision-making. Through comparisons with baseline methods using both simulated and real data, we showcase the superior performance of the proposed approaches.

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) and distributionally robust optimization (DRO) are popular approaches for solving stochastic optimization problems that appear in operations management and machine learning. Existing generalization error bounds for these methods depend on either the complexity of the cost function or dimension of the random perturbations. Consequently, the performance of these methods can be poor for high-dimensional problems with complex objective functions. We propose a simple approach in which the distribution of random perturbations is approximated using a parametric family of distributions. This mitigates both sources of complexity; however, it introduces a model misspecification error. We show that this new source of error can be controlled by suitable DRO formulations. Our proposed parametric DRO approach has significantly improved generalization bounds over existing ERM and DRO methods and parametric ERM for a wide variety of settings. Our method is particularly effective under distribution shifts and works broadly in contextual optimization. We also illustrate the superior performance of our approach on both synthetic and real-data portfolio optimization and regression tasks.

Fair representation learning (FRL) is a popular class of methods aiming to produce fair classifiers via data preprocessing. Recent regulatory directives stress the need for FRL methods that provide practical certificates, i.e., provable upper bounds on the unfairness of any downstream classifier trained on preprocessed data, which directly provides assurance in a practical scenario. Creating such FRL methods is an important challenge that remains unsolved. In this work, we address that challenge and introduce FARE (Fairness with Restricted Encoders), the first FRL method with practical fairness certificates. FARE is based on our key insight that restricting the representation space of the encoder enables the derivation of practical guarantees, while still permitting favorable accuracy-fairness tradeoffs for suitable instantiations, such as one we propose based on fair trees. To produce a practical certificate, we develop and apply a statistical procedure that computes a finite sample high-confidence upper bound on the unfairness of any downstream classifier trained on FARE embeddings. In our comprehensive experimental evaluation, we demonstrate that FARE produces practical certificates that are tight and often even comparable with purely empirical results obtained by prior methods, which establishes the practical value of our approach.

What makes a paper independently reproducible? Debates on reproducibility center around intuition or assumptions but lack empirical results. Our field focuses on releasing code, which is important, but is not sufficient for determining reproducibility. We take the first step toward a quantifiable answer by manually attempting to implement 255 papers published from 1984 until 2017, recording features of each paper, and performing statistical analysis of the results. For each paper, we did not look at the authors code, if released, in order to prevent bias toward discrepancies between code and paper.

Models for predicting the time of a future event are crucial for risk assessment, across a diverse range of applications. Existing time-to-event (survival) models have focused primarily on preserving pairwise ordering of estimated event times, or relative risk. Model calibration is relatively under explored, despite its critical importance in time-to-event applications. We present a survival function estimator for probabilistic predictions in time-to-event models, based on a neural network model for draws from the distribution of event times, without explicit assumptions on the form of the distribution. This is done like in adversarial learning, but we achieve learning without a discriminator or adversarial objective. The proposed estimator can be used in practice as a means of estimating and comparing conditional survival distributions, while accounting for the predictive uncertainty of probabilistic models. Extensive experiments show that the proposed model outperforms existing approaches, trained both with and without adversarial learning, in terms of both calibration and concentration of time-to-event distributions.