This is because most pairs of axis have similar variances.

Generative models producing images have enormous potential to advance discoveries across scientific fields and require metrics capable of quantifying the high dimensional output. We propose that astrophysics data, such as galaxy images, can test generative models with additional physics-motivated ground truths in addition to human judgment. For example, galaxies in the Universe form and change over billions of years, following physical laws and relationships that are both easy to characterize and difficult to encode in generative models. We build a conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) and a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) and test their ability to generate realistic galaxies conditioned on their redshifts (galaxy ages). This is one of the first studies to probe these generative models using physically motivated metrics. We find that both models produce comparable realistic galaxies based on human evaluation, but our physics-based metrics are better able to discern the strengths and weaknesses of the generative models. Overall, the DDPM model performs better than the CVAE on the majority of the physics-based metrics. Ultimately, if we can show that generative models can learn the physics of galaxy evolution, they have the potential to unlock new astrophysical discoveries.

Since the turn of the century, astronomers have been exploiting the rich information afforded by combining stellar kinematic maps and imaging in an attempt to recover the intrinsic, three-dimensional (3D) shape of a galaxy. A common intrinsic shape recovery method relies on an expected monotonic relationship between the intrinsic misalignment of the kinematic and morphological axes and the triaxiality parameter. Recent studies have, however, cast doubt about underlying assumptions relating shape and intrinsic kinematic misalignment. In this work, we aim to recover the 3D shape of individual galaxies using their projected stellar kinematic and flux distributions using a supervised machine learning approach with mixture density network (MDN). Using a mock dataset of the EAGLE hydrodynamical cosmological simulation, we train the MDN model for a carefully selected set of common kinematic and photometric parameters. Compared to previous methods, we demonstrate potential improvements achieved with the MDN model to retrieve the 3D galaxy shape along with the uncertainties, especially for prolate and triaxial systems. We make specific recommendations for recovering galaxy intrinsic shapes relevant for current and future integral field spectroscopic galaxy surveys.

Weak gravitational lensing of distant galaxies provides a powerful probe of dark energy. The aim of this study is to investigate the application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to precision shear estimation. In particular, using a shallow CNN, we explore the impact of point spread function (PSF) misestimation and `galaxy population bias' (including `distribution bias' and `morphology bias'), focusing on the accuracy requirements of next generation surveys. We simulate a population of noisy disk and elliptical galaxies and adopt a PSF that is representative of a Euclid-like survey. We quantify the accuracy achieved by the CNN assuming a linear relationship between the estimated and true shears and measure the multiplicative ($m$) and additive ($c$) biases. We make use of an unconventional loss function to mitigate the effects of noise bias and measure $m$ and $c$ when we use either: (i) an incorrect galaxy ellipticity distribution or size-magnitude relation, or the wrong ratio of morphological types, to describe the population of galaxies (distribution bias); (ii) an incorrect galaxy light profile (morphology bias); or (iii) a PSF with size or ellipticity offset from its true value (PSF misestimation). We compare our results to the Euclid requirements on the knowledge of the PSF model shape and size. Finally, we outline further work to build on the promising potential of CNNs in precision shear estimation.

Cosmic shear is a primary cosmological probe for several present and upcoming surveys investigating dark matter and dark energy, such as Euclid or WFIRST. The probe requires an extremely accurate measurement of the shapes of millions of galaxies based on imaging data. Crucially, the shear measurement must address and compensate for a range of interwoven nuisance effects related to the instrument optics and detector, noise, unknown galaxy morphologies, colors, blending of sources, and selection effects. This paper explores the use of supervised machine learning (ML) as a tool to solve this inverse problem. We present a simple architecture that learns to regress shear point estimates and weights via shallow artificial neural networks. The networks are trained on simulations of the forward observing process, and take combinations of moments of the galaxy images as inputs. A challenging peculiarity of this ML application is the combination of the noisiness of the input features and the requirements on the accuracy of the inverse regression. To address this issue, the proposed training algorithm minimizes bias over multiple realizations of individual source galaxies, reducing the sensitivity to properties of the overall sample of source galaxies. Importantly, an observational selection function of these source galaxies can be straightforwardly taken into account via the weights. We first introduce key aspects of our approach using toy-model simulations, and then demonstrate its potential on images mimicking Euclid data. Finally, we analyze images from the GREAT3 challenge, obtaining competitively low shear biases despite the use of a simple training set. We conclude that the further development of ML approaches is of high interest to meet the stringent requirements on the shear measurement in current and future surveys. A demonstration implementation of our technique is publicly available.

Understanding the nature of dark energy, the mysterious force driving the accelerated expansion of the Universe, is a major challenge of modern cosmology. The next generation of cosmological surveys, specifically designed to address this issue, rely on accurate measurements of the apparent shapes of distant galaxies. However, shape measurement methods suffer from various unavoidable biases and therefore will rely on a precise calibration to meet the accuracy requirements of the science analysis. This calibration process remains an open challenge as it requires large sets of high quality galaxy images. To this end, we study the application of deep conditional generative models in generating realistic galaxy images. In particular we consider variations on conditional variational autoencoder and introduce a new adversarial objective for training of conditional generative networks. Our results suggest a reliable alternative to the acquisition of expensive high quality observations for generating the calibration data needed by the next generation of cosmological surveys.

Understanding the nature of dark energy, the mysterious force driving the accelerated expansion of the Universe, is a major challenge of modern cosmology. The next generation of cosmological surveys, specifically designed to address this issue, rely on accurate measurements of the apparent shapes of distant galaxies. However, shape measurement methods suffer from various unavoidable biases and therefore will rely on a precise calibration to meet the accuracy requirements of the science analysis. This calibration process remains an open challenge as it requires large sets of high quality galaxy images. To this end, we study the application of deep conditional generative models in generating realistic galaxy images. In particular we consider variations on conditional variational autoencoder and introduce a new adversarial objective for training of conditional generative networks. Our results suggest a reliable alternative to the acquisition of expensive high quality observations for generating the calibration data needed by the next generation of cosmological surveys.

Probabilistic programming allows specification of probabilistic models in a declarative manner. Recently, several new software systems and languages for probabilistic programming have been developed on the basis of newly developed and improved methods for approximate inference in probabilistic models. In this contribution a probabilistic model for an idealized dark matter localization problem is described. We first derive the probabilistic model for the inference of dark matter locations and masses, and then show how this model can be implemented using BUGS and Infer.NET, two software systems for probabilistic programming. Finally, the different capabilities of both systems are discussed. The presented dark matter model includes mainly non-conjugate factors, thus, it is difficult to implement this model with Infer.NET.