Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes applications, where overconfident predictions can lead to serious consequences. An effective UQ method must balance computational efficiency with the ability to generalize across diverse scenarios. Evidential deep learning (EDL) achieves efficiency by modeling uncertainty through the prediction of a Dirichlet distribution over class probabilities. However, the restrictive assumption of Dirichlet-distributed class probabilities limits EDL's robustness, particularly in complex or unforeseen situations. To address this, we propose *flexible evidential deep learning* ($\mathcal{F}$-EDL), which extends EDL by predicting a flexible Dirichlet distribution--a generalization of the Dirichlet distribution--over class probabilities. This approach provides a more expressive and adaptive representation of uncertainty, significantly enhancing UQ generalization and reliability under challenging scenarios. We theoretically establish several advantages of $\mathcal{F}$-EDL and empirically demonstrate its state-of-the-art UQ performance across diverse evaluation settings, including classical, long-tailed, and noisy in-distribution scenarios.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes applications, where overconfident predictions can lead to serious consequences. An effective UQ method must balance computational efficiency with the ability to generalize across diverse scenarios. Evidential deep learning (EDL) achieves efficiency by modeling uncertainty through the prediction of a Dirichlet distribution over class probabilities. However, the restrictive assumption of Dirichlet-distributed class probabilities limits EDL's robustness, particularly in complex or unforeseen situations. To address this, we propose \textit{flexible evidential deep learning} ($\mathcal{F}$-EDL), which extends EDL by predicting a flexible Dirichlet distribution -- a generalization of the Dirichlet distribution -- over class probabilities. This approach provides a more expressive and adaptive representation of uncertainty, significantly enhancing UQ generalization and reliability under challenging scenarios. We theoretically establish several advantages of $\mathcal{F}$-EDL and empirically demonstrate its state-of-the-art UQ performance across diverse evaluation settings, including classical, long-tailed, and noisy in-distribution scenarios.

Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for trustworthy decision-making and the deployment of AI models in medical imaging. While prior work has explored the ability of neural networks to quantify predictive, epistemic, and aleatoric uncertainties using an information-theoretical approach in synthetic or well defined data settings like natural image classification, its applicability to real life medical diagnosis tasks remains underexplored. In this study, we provide an extensive uncertainty quantification benchmark for multi-label chest X-ray classification using the MIMIC-CXR-JPG dataset. We evaluate 13 uncertainty quantification methods for convolutional (ResNet) and transformer-based (Vision Transformer) architectures across a wide range of tasks. Additionally, we extend Evidential Deep Learning, HetClass NNs, and Deep Deterministic Uncertainty to the multi-label setting. Our analysis provides insights into uncertainty estimation effectiveness and the ability to disentangle epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, revealing method- and architecture-specific strengths and limitations.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods play an important role in reducing errors in weather forecasting. Conventional approaches in UQ for weather forecasting rely on generating an ensemble of forecasts from physics-based simulations to estimate the uncertainty. However, it is computationally expensive to generate many forecasts to predict real-time extreme weather events. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is an uncertainty-aware deep learning approach designed to provide confidence about its predictions using only one forecast. It treats learning as an evidence acquisition process where more evidence is interpreted as increased predictive confidence. We apply EDL to storm forecasting using real-world weather datasets and compare its performance with traditional methods. Our findings indicate that EDL not only reduces computational overhead but also enhances predictive uncertainty. This method opens up novel opportunities in research areas such as climate risk assessment, where quantifying the uncertainty about future climate is crucial.

Autonomous and semi-autonomous systems are using deep learning models to improve decision-making. However, deep classifiers can be overly confident in their incorrect predictions, a major issue especially in safety-critical domains. The present study introduces three foundational desiderata for developing real-world risk-aware classification systems. Expanding upon the previously proposed Evidential Deep Learning (EDL), we demonstrate the unity between these principles and EDL's operational attributes. We then augment EDL empowering autonomous agents to exercise discretion during structured decision-making when uncertainty and risks are inherent. We rigorously examine empirical scenarios to substantiate these theoretical innovations. In contrast to existing risk-aware classifiers, our proposed methodologies consistently exhibit superior performance, underscoring their transformative potential in risk-conscious classification strategies.

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is an emerging method for uncertainty estimation that provides reliable predictive uncertainty in a single forward pass, attracting significant attention. Grounded in subjective logic, EDL derives Dirichlet concentration parameters from neural networks to construct a Dirichlet probability density function (PDF), modeling the distribution of class probabilities. Despite its success, EDL incorporates several nonessential settings: In model construction, (1) a commonly ignored prior weight parameter is fixed to the number of classes, while its value actually impacts the balance between the proportion of evidence and its magnitude in deriving predictive scores. In model optimization, (2) the empirical risk features a variance-minimizing optimization term that biases the PDF towards a Dirac delta function, potentially exacerbating overconfidence. (3) Additionally, the structural risk typically includes a KL-divergence-minimizing regularization, whose optimization direction extends beyond the intended purpose and contradicts common sense, diminishing the information carried by the evidence magnitude. Therefore, we propose Re-EDL, a simplified yet more effective variant of EDL, by relaxing the nonessential settings and retaining the essential one, namely, the adoption of projected probability from subjective logic. Specifically, Re-EDL treats the prior weight as an adjustable hyperparameter rather than a fixed scalar, and directly optimizes the expectation of the Dirichlet PDF provided by deprecating both the variance-minimizing optimization term and the divergence regularization term. Extensive experiments and state-of-the-art performance validate the effectiveness of our method. The source code is available at https://github.com/MengyuanChen21/Re-EDL.

Reliable uncertainty estimation has become a crucial requirement for the industrial deployment of deep learning algorithms, particularly in high-risk applications such as autonomous driving and medical diagnosis. However, mainstream uncertainty estimation methods, based on deep ensembling or Bayesian neural networks, generally impose substantial computational overhead. To address this challenge, a novel paradigm called Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) has emerged, providing reliable uncertainty estimation with minimal additional computation in a single forward pass. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the current research on EDL, designed to offer readers a broad introduction to the field without assuming prior knowledge. Specifically, we first delve into the theoretical foundation of EDL, the subjective logic theory, and discuss its distinctions from other uncertainty estimation frameworks. We further present existing theoretical advancements in EDL from four perspectives: reformulating the evidence collection process, improving uncertainty estimation via OOD samples, delving into various training strategies, and evidential regression networks. Thereafter, we elaborate on its extensive applications across various machine learning paradigms and downstream tasks. In the end, an outlook on future directions for better performances and broader adoption of EDL is provided, highlighting potential research avenues.

Moreover, when we tackle a K-progress by propagating the label information from way classification problem with a large K, the binary detectors labeled data to unlabeled data (Berthelot et al. 2019; Xu et al. are less robust to identify outliers from such a complex 2021; Wang et al. 2022b; Zheng et al. 2022). Despite the dataset that contains multi-class information (Carbonneau success, SSL methods are deeply rooted in the closed-set assumption et al. 2018). One advanced method, evidential deep learning that labeled data, unlabeled data and test data share (EDL) (Sensoy, Kaplan, and Kandemir 2018) can explicitly the same predefined label set. In reality (Yu et al. 2020), such quantify the classification uncertainty corresponding an assumption may not always hold as we can only accurately to the unknown class, by treating the network's output as evidence control the label set of labeled data, while unlabeled for parameterizing the Dirichlet distribution according and test data may include outliers that belong to the novel to subjective logic (Jøsang 2016). Compared with Softmax classes that are not seen in labeled data.

Uncertainty estimation is a key factor that makes deep learning reliable in practical applications. Recently proposed evidential neural networks explicitly account for different uncertainties by treating the network's outputs as evidence to parameterize the Dirichlet distribution, and achieve impressive performance in uncertainty estimation. However, for high data uncertainty samples but annotated with the one-hot label, the evidence-learning process for those mislabeled classes is over-penalized and remains hindered. To address this problem, we propose a novel method, Fisher Information-based Evidential Deep Learning ($\mathcal{I}$-EDL). In particular, we introduce Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) to measure the informativeness of evidence carried by each sample, according to which we can dynamically reweight the objective loss terms to make the network more focused on the representation learning of uncertain classes. The generalization ability of our network is further improved by optimizing the PAC-Bayesian bound. As demonstrated empirically, our proposed method consistently outperforms traditional EDL-related algorithms in multiple uncertainty estimation tasks, especially in the more challenging few-shot classification settings.

Most named entity recognition (NER) systems focus on improving model performance, ignoring the need to quantify model uncertainty, which is critical to the reliability of NER systems in open environments. Evidential deep learning (EDL) has recently been proposed as a promising solution to explicitly model predictive uncertainty for classification tasks. However, directly applying EDL to NER applications faces two challenges, i.e., the problems of sparse entities and OOV/OOD entities in NER tasks. To address these challenges, we propose a trustworthy NER framework named E-NER by introducing two uncertainty-guided loss terms to the conventional EDL, along with a series of uncertainty-guided training strategies. Experiments show that E-NER can be applied to multiple NER paradigms to obtain accurate uncertainty estimation. Furthermore, compared to state-of-the-art baselines, the proposed method achieves a better OOV/OOD detection performance and better generalization ability on OOV entities.