Many analysts are predicting an election-year upturn, but they aren't accounting for the President's ability to cause more chaos. In a primetime address from the Oval Office last week, Donald Trump said, "We are poised for an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen." This was the sort of bloviating that has convinced many voters he's hopelessly out of touch, but it did raise the question of how the economy is likely to perform in 2026, a midterm-election year. Given the data fog that the government shutdown created, the old joke applies more than ever: it's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. But some things seem reasonably clear.

Is Sam Altman Gambling With the U.S. Economy? Sam Altman tours the Stargate AI data center in Abilene, Texas on Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025. Sam Altman tours the Stargate AI data center in Abilene, Texas on Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025. Welcome back to In the Loop, new twice-weekly newsletter about AI. If you're reading this in your browser, why not subscribe to have the next one delivered straight to your inbox?

Typically when we put out a call for audience questions, there’s no single topic that dominates. This time was different. The questions we received were overwhelmingly focused on artificial intelligence: Do A.I. systems pose an existential threat to humanity? Will robots take our jobs? How could these machines potentially make our lives — and the lives of our children — better? So I asked the show’s senior editor, Roge Karma, to join me to talk through them. We also discuss my mixed feelings about the calls to “pause” A.I. development, why I’m less worried about rogue A.I. systems than the incentives of the companies and countries developing A.I., the need for a “public vision” for A.I. development, whether A.I. companions can help address widespread loneliness, why I’m skeptical that A.I. advances will lead to skyrocketing economic productivity, the possibility that A.I. advances will lead to a post-work utopia, why I think of A.I. less as a normal technology and more as a “hyper object,” what A.I. systems are unveiling about what it means to be human and more. Mentioned: “Natural Selection Favors AIs over Humans” by Dan Hendrycks “2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI” God, Human, Animal, Machine by Meghan O’Gieblyn “Resisting dehumanization in the age of A.I.” with Emily Bender “The Moral Economy of High-Tech Modernism” by Henry Farrell and Marion Fourcade Recommendations: “Some of Us Are Brave” by Danielle Ponder “In Memory of a Honeybee” by Felix Rösch “Clouds” by Felix Rösch and Laura Masotto “Driven” by Felix Rösch Mabe Fratti Trance Frendz by Ólafur Arnalds and Nils Frahm Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com. You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs. This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Roge Karma, Kristin Lin and Jeff Geld. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris and Kate Sinclair. Mixing by Jeff Geld. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Sonia Herrero and Kristina Samulewski.

Youth Unemployment & the Lost Generation. It's enough to make your head spin! We are living in a time of unparalleled change and contradictions. At the same time we have amazing changes technology and business models that are providing opportunities and riches for some and leaving others behind, frustrated, confused and angry. Not since the mid-1800s have we seen such a radical change in labor markets, business models and political systems.

Renault's concept vehicle EZ-GO is designed to be pooled and available on-demand like a taxi service, continuing the trend of the'sharing economy' seen with companies like Uber. A link has been sent to your friend's email address. A link has been posted to your Facebook feed. Renault's concept vehicle EZ-GO is designed to be pooled and available on-demand like a taxi service, continuing the trend of the'sharing economy' seen with companies like Uber.

Each day we read about amazing technology breakthroughs, particularly when it comes to artificial intelligence (AI). But if AI is so great, why are these breathtaking technological achievements not matched with soaring productivity and economic growth? Or, to paraphrase an old jibe: If the economy is so smart, why aren't we all rich? After all, we live among astonishing examples of potentially transformative new technologies that could greatly increase productivity and economic welfare. As noted in the 2014 book, "The Second Machine Age," leaps in AI, machine learning and, more recently in areas such as image recognition, abound.

Artificial intelligence (AI) will have many profound societal effects It promises potential benefits (and may also pose risks) in education, defense, business, law, and science In this article we explore how AI is likely to affect employment and the distribution of income. I am grateful for the helpful comments provided by many people Specifically I would like to acknowledge the advice teceived from Sandra Cook and Victor Walling of SRI, Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin of the New York University Institute for Economic Analysis, Margaret Boden of The University of Sussex, Henry Levin and Charles Holloway of Stanford University, James Albus of the National Bureau of Standards, and Peter Hart of Syntelligence Herbert Simon, of Carnegie-Mellon Univetsity, wrote me extensive criticisms and rebuttals of my arguments Robert Solow of MIT was quite skeptical of my premises, but conceded nevertheless that my conclusions could possibly follow from them if certain other economic conditions were satisfied. There are two opposing views in response to this question Some claim that AI is not really very different from other technologies that have supported automation and increased productivity-technologies such as mechanical engineering, ele&onics, control engineering, and operations rcsearch. Like them, AI may also lead ultimately to an expanding economy with a concomitant expansion of employment opportunities. At worst, according to this view, thcrc will be some, perhaps even substantial shifts in the types of jobs, but certainly no overall reduction in the total number of jobs.

Digital computers have transformed work in almost every sector of the economy over the past several decades (1). We are now at the beginning of an even larger and more rapid transformation due to recent advances in machine learning (ML), which is capable of accelerating the pace of automation itself. However, although it is clear that ML is a "general purpose technology," like the steam engine and electricity, which spawns a plethora of additional innovations and capabilities (2), there is no widely shared agreement on the tasks where ML systems excel, and thus little agreement on the specific expected impacts on the workforce and on the economy more broadly. We discuss what we see to be key implications for the workforce, drawing on our rubric of what the current generation of ML systems can and cannot do [see the supplementary materials (SM)]. Although parts of many jobs may be "suitable for ML" (SML), other tasks within these same jobs do not fit the criteria for ML well; hence, effects on employment are more complex than the simple replacement and substitution story emphasized by some.

With so much excitement about progress in artificial intelligence, you may wonder why intelligent machines aren't already running our lives. Key advances have the capacity to dazzle the public, policymakers, and investors into believing that human-level machine intelligence may be just around the corner. But a new report (PDF), which tries to gauge actual progress being made, attests that this is far from true. The findings may help inform the discussion over how AI will affect the economy and jobs in the coming years. "There's no question there have been a number of breakthroughs in recent years," says Erik Brynjolfsson, a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and one of the authors of the report.

Do you know what's more dangerous than artificial intelligence? In this article, I will explore natural stupidity in more detail and show how our current technology (driven by narrow artificial intelligence) is making us collectively dumber. We've all had this experience of using a GPS to guide us around an unfamiliar place only to realize later that we have no recollection or ability to get to that place again without the aid of a GPS. Not only is our directional instinct diminished because of lack of use, but so is our own memories. We've all experienced losing our ability to recall due to our over use of Google.