Deep state-space models (DSSMs) enable temporal predictions by learning the underlying dynamics ofobservedsequence data.

Deep state-space models (DSSMs) enable temporal predictions by learning the underlying dynamics of observed sequence data. They are often trained by maximising the evidence lower bound. However, as we show, this does not ensure the model actually learns the underlying dynamics. We therefore propose a constrained optimisation framework as a general approach for training DSSMs. Building upon this, we introduce the extended Kalman VAE (EKVAE), which combines amortised variational inference with classic Bayesian filtering/smoothing to model dynamics more accurately than RNN-based DSSMs. Our results show that the constrained optimisation framework significantly improves system identification and prediction accuracy on the example of established state-of-the-art DSSMs. The EKVAE outperforms previous models w.r.t.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Deep state-space models (DSSMs) enable temporal predictions by learning the underlying dynamics of observed sequence data. They are often trained by maximising the evidence lower bound. However, as we show, this does not ensure the model actually learns the underlying dynamics. We therefore propose a constrained optimisation framework as a general approach for training DSSMs. Building upon this, we introduce the extended Kalman VAE (EKVAE), which combines amortised variational inference with classic Bayesian filtering/smoothing to model dynamics more accurately than RNN-based DSSMs. Our results show that the constrained optimisation framework significantly improves system identification and prediction accuracy on the example of established state-of-the-art DSSMs.

We introduce and analyze Discriminative State-Space Models for forecasting nonstationary time series. We provide data-dependent generalization guarantees for learning these models based on the recently introduced notion of discrepancy. We provide an in-depth analysis of the complexity of such models. We also study the generalization guarantees for several structural risk minimization approaches to this problem and provide an efficient implementation for one of them which is based on a convex objective.

Deep state-space models (DSSMs) have gained popularity in recent years due to their potent modeling capacity for dynamic systems. However, existing DSSM works are limited to single-task modeling, which requires retraining with historical task data upon revisiting a forepassed task. To address this limitation, we propose continual learning DSSMs (CLDSSMs), which are capable of adapting to evolving tasks without catastrophic forgetting. Our proposed CLDSSMs integrate mainstream regularization-based continual learning (CL) methods, ensuring efficient updates with constant computational and memory costs for modeling multiple dynamic systems. We also conduct a comprehensive cost analysis of each CL method applied to the respective CLDSSMs, and demonstrate the efficacy of CLDSSMs through experiments on real-world datasets. The results corroborate that while various competing CL methods exhibit different merits, the proposed CLDSSMs consistently outperform traditional DSSMs in terms of effectively addressing catastrophic forgetting, enabling swift and accurate parameter transfer to new tasks.

Sequential data often originates from diverse domains across which statistical regularities and domain specifics exist. To specifically learn cross-domain sequence representations, we introduce disentangled state space models (DSSM) -- a class of SSM in which domain-invariant state dynamics is explicitly disentangled from domain-specific information governing that dynamics. We analyze how such separation can improve knowledge transfer to new domains, and enable robust prediction, sequence manipulation and domain characterization. We furthermore propose an unsupervised VAE-based training procedure to implement DSSM in form of Bayesian filters. In our experiments, we applied VAE-DSSM framework to achieve competitive performance in online ODE system identification and regression across experimental settings, and controlled generation and prediction of bouncing ball video sequences across varying gravitational influences.

In this paper, we introduce and analyze Discriminative State-Space Models for forecasting non-stationary time series. We provide data-dependent generalization guarantees for learning these models based on the recently introduced notion of discrepancy. We provide an in-depth analysis of the complexity of such models. Finally, we also study the generalization guarantees for several structural risk minimization approaches to this problem and provide an efficient implementation for one of them which is based on a convex objective.