Previous work has focused primarily on developing ML-based "meta-learners" that can provide point estimates of the conditional

Accurately quantifying uncertainty of individual treatment effects (ITEs) across multiple decision points is crucial for personalized decision-making in fields such as healthcare, finance, education, and online marketplaces. Previous work has focused on predicting non-causal longitudinal estimands or constructing prediction bands for ITEs using cross-sectional data based on exchangeability assumptions. We propose a novel method for constructing prediction intervals using conformal inference techniques for time-varying ITEs with weaker assumptions than prior literature. We guarantee a lower bound for coverage, which is dependent on the degree of non-exchangeability in the data. Although our method is broadly applicable across decision-making contexts, we support our theoretical claims with simulations emulating micro-randomized trials (MRTs) -- a sequential experimental design for mobile health (mHealth) studies. We demonstrate the practical utility of our method by applying it to a real-world MRT - the Intern Health Study (IHS).

Dominance is a fundamental concept in game theory. In normal-form games dominated strategies can be identified in polynomial time. As a consequence, iterative removal of dominated strategies can be performed efficiently as a preprocessing step for reducing the size of a game before computing a Nash equilibrium. For imperfect-information games in extensive form, we could convert the game to normal form and then iteratively remove dominated strategies in the same way; however, this conversion may cause an exponential blowup in game size. In this paper we define and study the concept of dominated actions in imperfect-information games. Our main result is a polynomial-time algorithm for determining whether an action is dominated (strictly or weakly) by any mixed strategy in n-player games, which can be extended to an algorithm for iteratively removing dominated actions. This allows us to efficiently reduce the size of the game tree as a preprocessing step for Nash equilibrium computation. We explore the role of dominated actions empirically in "All In or Fold" No-Limit Texas Hold'em poker.

Factor analysis studies have shown that the primary dimensions of word meaning are Valence (V), Arousal (A), and Dominance (D). Existing lexicons such as the NRC VAD Lexicon, published in 2018, include VAD association ratings for words. Here, we present a complement to it, which has human ratings of valence, arousal, and dominance for 10k English Multiword Expressions (MWEs) and their constituent words. We also increase the coverage of unigrams, especially words that have become more common since 2018. In all, the new NRC VAD Lexicon v2 now has entries for 10k MWEs and 25k words, in addition to the entries in v1. We show that the associations are highly reliable. We use the lexicon to examine emotional characteristics of MWEs, including: 1. The degree to which MWEs (idioms, noun compounds, and verb particle constructions) exhibit strong emotionality; 2. The degree of emotional compositionality in MWEs. The lexicon enables a wide variety of research in NLP, Psychology, Public Health, Digital Humanities, and Social Sciences. The NRC VAD Lexicon v2 is freely available through the project webpage: http://saifmohammad.com/WebPages/nrc-vad.html

Intelligent agents equipped with causal knowledge can optimize their action spaces to avoid unnecessary exploration. The structural causal bandit framework provides a graphical characterization for identifying actions that are unable to maximize rewards by leveraging prior knowledge of the underlying causal structure. While such knowledge enables an agent to estimate the expected rewards of certain actions based on others in online interactions, there has been little guidance on how to transfer information inferred from arbitrary combinations of datasets collected under different conditions -- observational or experimental -- and from heterogeneous environments. In this paper, we investigate the structural causal bandit with transportability, where priors from the source environments are fused to enhance learning in the deployment setting. We demonstrate that it is possible to exploit invariances across environments to consistently improve learning. The resulting bandit algorithm achieves a sub-linear regret bound with an explicit dependence on informativeness of prior data, and it may outperform standard bandit approaches that rely solely on online learning.

Human emotions are difficult to convey through words and are often abstracted in the process; however, electroencephalogram (EEG) signals can offer a more direct lens into emotional brain activity. Recent studies show that deep learning models can process these signals to perform emotion recognition with high accuracy. However, many existing approaches overlook the dynamic interplay between distinct brain regions, which can be crucial to understanding how emotions unfold and evolve over time, potentially aiding in more accurate emotion recognition. To address this, we propose RBTransformer, a Transformer-based neural network architecture that models inter-cortical neural dynamics of the brain in latent space to better capture structured neural interactions for effective EEG-based emotion recognition. First, the EEG signals are converted into Band Differential Entropy (BDE) tokens, which are then passed through Electrode Identity embeddings to retain spatial provenance. These tokens are processed through successive inter-cortical multi-head attention blocks that construct an electrode x electrode attention matrix, allowing the model to learn the inter-cortical neural dependencies. The resulting features are then passed through a classification head to obtain the final prediction. We conducted extensive experiments, specifically under subject-dependent settings, on the SEED, DEAP, and DREAMER datasets, over all three dimensions, Valence, Arousal, and Dominance (for DEAP and DREAMER), under both binary and multi-class classification settings. The results demonstrate that the proposed RBTransformer outperforms all previous state-of-the-art methods across all three datasets, over all three dimensions under both classification settings. The source code is available at: https://github.com/nnilayy/RBTransformer.

The motivating example comes from e-commerce, where a customer typically has a greater appetence for items of a specific well-identified but unknown category than any other one.

Large Language Models that are evaluated on multiple metrics.

This paper is the first investigation of the connection between emotion, embodiment, and everyday language in a large sample of natural language data. We created corpora of body part mentions (BPMs) in online English text (blog posts and tweets). This includes a subset featuring human annotations for the emotions of the person whose body part is mentioned in the text. We show that BPMs are common in personal narratives and tweets (~5% to 10% of posts include BPMs) and that their usage patterns vary markedly by time and %geographic location. Using word-emotion association lexicons and our annotated data, we show that text containing BPMs tends to be more emotionally charged, even when the BPM is not explicitly used to describe a physical reaction to the emotion in the text. Finally, we discover a strong and statistically significant correlation between body-related language and a variety of poorer health outcomes. In sum, we argue that investigating the role of body-part related words in language can open up valuable avenues of future research at the intersection of NLP, the affective sciences, and the study of human wellbeing.

Before deploying an AI system to replace an existing process, it must be compared with the incumbent to ensure improvement without added risk. Traditional evaluation relies on ground truth for both systems, but this is often unavailable due to delayed or unknowable outcomes, high costs, or incomplete data, especially for long-standing systems deemed safe by convention. The more practical solution is not to compute absolute risk but the difference between systems. We therefore propose a marginal risk assessment framework, that avoids dependence on ground truth or absolute risk. It emphasizes three kinds of relative evaluation methodology, including predictability, capability and interaction dominance. By shifting focus from absolute to relative evaluation, our approach equips software teams with actionable guidance: identifying where AI enhances outcomes, where it introduces new risks, and how to adopt such systems responsibly.