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WildfireSpreadTS: A dataset of multi-modal time series for wildfire spread prediction

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a multi-temporal, multi-modal remote-sensing dataset for predicting how active wildfires will spread at a resolution of 24 hours. The dataset consists of 13 607 images across 607 fire events in the United States from January 2018 to October 2021. For each fire event, the dataset contains a full time series of daily observations, containing detected active fires and variables related to fuel, topography and weather conditions. The dataset is challenging due to: a) its inputs being multi-temporal, b) the high number of 23 multi-modal input channels, c) highly imbalanced labels and d) noisy labels, due to smoke, clouds, and inaccuracies in the active fire detection.









Fast and Exact Least Absolute Deviations Line Fitting via Piecewise Affine Lower-Bounding

Volz, Stefan, Storath, Martin, Weinmann, Andreas

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Least-absolute-deviations (LAD) line fitting is robust to outliers but computationally more involved than least squares regression. Although the literature includes linear and near-linear time algorithms for the LAD line fitting problem, these methods are difficult to implement and, to our knowledge, lack maintained public implementations. As a result, practitioners often resort to linear programming (LP) based methods such as the simplex-based Barrodale-Roberts method and interior-point methods, or on iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) approximation which does not guarantee exact solutions. To close this gap, we propose the Piecewise Affine Lower-Bounding (PALB) method, an exact algorithm for LAD line fitting. PALB uses supporting lines derived from subgradients to build piecewise-affine lower bounds, and employs a subdivision scheme involving minima of these lower bounds. We prove correctness and provide bounds on the number of iterations. On synthetic datasets with varied signal types and noise including heavy-tailed outliers as well as a real dataset from the NOAA's Integrated Surface Database, PALB exhibits empirical log-linear scaling. It is consistently faster than publicly available implementations of LP based and IRLS based solvers. We provide a reference implementation written in Rust with a Python API.


Financial Fraud Identification and Interpretability Study for Listed Companies Based on Convolutional Neural Network

Li, Xiao

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Since the emergence of joint-stock companies, financial fraud by listed firms has repeatedly undermined capital markets. Fraud is difficult to detect because of covert tactics and the high labor and time costs of audits. Traditional statistical models are interpretable but struggle with nonlinear feature interactions, while machine learning models are powerful but often opaque. In addition, most existing methods judge fraud only for the current year based on current year data, limiting timeliness. This paper proposes a financial fraud detection framework for Chinese A-share listed companies based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We design a feature engineering scheme that transforms firm-year panel data into image like representations, enabling the CNN to capture cross-sectional and temporal patterns and to predict fraud in advance. Experiments show that the CNN outperforms logistic regression and LightGBM in accuracy, robustness, and early-warning performance, and that proper tuning of the classification threshold is crucial in high-risk settings. To address interpretability, we analyze the model along the dimensions of entity, feature, and time using local explanation techniques. We find that solvency, ratio structure, governance structure, and internal control are general predictors of fraud, while environmental indicators matter mainly in high-pollution industries. Non-fraud firms share stable feature patterns, whereas fraud firms exhibit heterogeneous patterns concentrated in short time windows. A case study of Guanong Shares in 2022 shows that cash flow analysis, social responsibility, governance structure, and per-share indicators are the main drivers of the model's fraud prediction, consistent with the company's documented misconduct.