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Venezuela Earthquake Destruction Revealed in New Satellite Images

WIRED

The maps and images show the extent of destruction and give rescue operations a tool to find any remaining survivors. A satellite image from Vantor shows collapsed apartment buildings and widespread damage caused by the earthquake in the Playa Grande neighborhood of La Guaira. Satellite Technology Is being used to streamline rescue efforts in Venezuela following the two earthquakes that struck on June 24. Space agencies have shared images with emergency authorities and the Venezuelan government that not only reveal the magnitude of the disaster but also allow response teams to identify where to focus their efforts--and the challenges on the ground. Following the twin earthquakes in Venezuela, the Copernicus satellite system activated its emergency mapping mode at the request of the European Commission's Directorate-General for Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations.


The Decision Geometry of Covariance Estimation for the Global Minimum-Variance Portfolio under Heavy Tails

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The global minimum-variance portfolio (GMVP) is the canonical decision built from an estimated covariance matrix, yet covariance estimators are universally evaluated by matrix-norm loss, which is not the object the decision depends on. We characterise exactly how covariance-estimation error maps into GMVP suboptimality. We prove an exact regret identity and a non-asymptotic bound showing decision regret depends on the estimation error only through its action on the portfolio weights, scaled by portfolio concentration and the conditioning of the true covariance. From this we derive the decision geometry: GMVP regret is invariant to a (p-1)-dimensional projection of the p^2-dimensional error matrix, with invariance to the covariance-scale direction as an exact special case. We then apply the framework to heavy-tailed returns (tail index kappa in (2,4)), establishing the regret convergence rate implied by the centred operator-norm rate, and confirm the theory on a skew-t/t-copula simulation design with pre-registered analysis. The decision-focused advantage is a sharper constant and a concentration discount rather than a faster rate; we report an honest high-conditioning boundary of the rate prediction. The results complement recent decision-focused learning approaches by supplying the exact estimation geometry and consistency theory they lack.


REMI: Reconstructing Episodic Memory During Internally Driven Path Planning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Grid cells fire in triangular grid patterns, while place cells fire at specific locations and respond to contextual cues. How do these interacting systems support not only spatial encoding but also internally driven path planning, such as navigating to locations recalled from cues? Here, we propose a system-level theory of MEC-HC wiring that explains how grid and place cell patterns could be connected to enable cue-triggered goal retrieval, path planning, and reconstruction of sensory experience along planned routes. We suggest that place cells autoassociate sensory inputs with grid cell patterns, allowing sensory cues to trigger recall of goal-location grid patterns. We show analytically that grid-based planning permits shortcuts through unvisited locations and generalizes local transitions to long-range paths. During planning, intermediate grid states trigger place cell pattern completion, reconstructing sensory experiences along the route. Using a single-layer RNN modeling the HC-MEC loop with a planning subnetwork, we demonstrate these effects in both biologically grounded navigation simulations using RatatouGym and visually realistic navigation tasks using Habitat Sim. Codes for experiments, simulations, and vision encoder are available at 1,2,3.


Generalised Eigenvalue Geometry of Semantic Adversarial Attacks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent empirical work shows that semantically equivalent paraphrases can fool financial sentiment classifiers: although a paraphrase remains close to the original under a strong reference embedding, it may shift the target model's representation enough to change the predicted class. Existing robustness theory either assumes a single-model threat model or focuses mainly on empirical attack algorithms. We develop a continuous local model of semantic paraphrase perturbations that captures this two-model structure. We show that the worst-case local displacement of the target representation, subject to a proxy-model budget, is governed by the largest generalised eigenvalue of a matrix pencil $(A,B)$ constructed from the Jacobians of the two embedding maps. The resulting attackability index $ฮป^*(x)$ is intrinsic to the local paraphrase geometry and the chosen embedders, yields a closed-form prediction-flip condition for affine readouts, and supports conservative population and finite-sample attackability certificates. For uniform control over classes of affine readouts, we derive a distribution-free VC bound for binary attackability indicators and a scale-sensitive margin bound based on an attackability-adjusted margin that subtracts a local geometric penalty from the standard classifier margin. We also connect the continuous theory to discrete paraphrase search, identify an asymmetry between successful and unsuccessful finite searches, and give a covering condition under which the discrete and continuous settings agree. Finally, we propose an empirical verification framework using soft-token relaxations and generated paraphrase sets to assess the local eigenvalue geometry, prediction-flip condition, and finite-search approximation on a deployed financial-text classifier.


GLVD: Guided Learned Vertex Descent

Neural Information Processing Systems

Existing 3D face modeling methods usually depend on 3DMorphable Models, which inherently constrain the representation capacity to fixed shape priors. Optimization-based approaches offer high-quality reconstructions but tend to be computationally expensive. In this work, we introduce GLVD, a hybrid method for 3D face reconstruction from few-shot images that extends Learned Vertex Descent (LVD) [11] by integrating per-vertex neural field optimization with global structural guidance from dynamically predicted 3D keypoints. By incorporating relative spatial encoding, GLVD iteratively refines mesh vertices without requiring dense 3D supervision. This enables expressive and adaptable geometry reconstruction while maintaining computational efficiency. GLVD achieves state-of-the-art performance in single-view settings and remains highly competitive in multi-view scenarios, all while substantially reducing inference time.


RigAnyFace: Scaling Neural Facial Mesh Auto-Rigging with Unlabeled Data

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we present RigAnyFace (RAF), a scalable neural auto-rigging framework for facial meshes of diverse topologies, including those with multiple disconnected components. RAF deforms a static neutral facial mesh into industry-standard FACS poses to form an expressive blendshape rig. Deformations are predicted by a triangulation-agnostic surface learning network augmented with our tailored architecture design to condition on FACS parameters and efficiently process disconnected components. For training, we curated a dataset of facial meshes, with a subset meticulously rigged by professional artists to serve as accurate 3D ground truth for deformation supervision. Due to the high cost of manual rigging, this subset is limited in size, constraining the generalization ability of models trained exclusively on it. To address this, we design a 2D supervision strategy for unlabeled neutral meshes without rigs. This strategy increases data diversity and allows for scaled training, thereby enhancing the generalization ability of models trained on this augmented data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RAF is able to rig meshes of diverse topologies on not only our artist-crafted assets but also in-the-wild samples, outperforming previous works in accuracy and generalizability. Moreover, our method advances beyond prior work by supporting multiple disconnected components, such as eyeballs, for more detailed expression animation.


Aerodynamic force reconstruction using physics-informed Gaussian processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate modeling of aerodynamic loads is essential for understanding and predicting the responses of complex structural systems. However, these models often rely on simplifications of the true physical forces, introducing assumptions that can limit their accuracy. Validating such models becomes particularly challenging in the presence of noisy or incomplete data. To address this, we introduce a probabilistic physics-informed machine learning approach designed to reconstruct the underlying aerodynamic loads from noisy measurements of structural dynamic responses. The model avoids overfitting, eliminates the need for regularization schemes, and allows for the use of heterogeneous and multi-fidelity data during the training process. The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated through the reconstruction of aerodynamic loads on the Great Belt East Bridge, simulated under a linear unsteady assumption. Results show a strong agreement between true and predicted loads, particularly related to root mean squared errors, magnitude, phase angle and peak values of the signals. The method for load reconstructing holds broad applicability, such as modeling validation, future load estimation, and structural damage prognosis.


How Data Augmentation Shapes Neural Representations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Data augmentation is widely recognized for improving generalization in deep networks, yet its impact on the geometry of learned representations remains poorly understood. In this work, we characterize how different data augmentation strategies reshape internal representations in neural networks. Using tools from shape analysis, we embed network hidden representations into a metric space where distance is invariant to scaling, translation, rotation and reflection. We show that increasing augmentation strength leads to well-behaved trajectories in this space, and that different augmentation types steer representations in distinct directions. Moreover, we investigate how neural representation shapes are distorted along data augmentation trajectories, and show that insights from neural geometry can predict which representations provide the most improvement when ensembling models. Our results reveal shared geometric patterns across architectures and seeds, and suggest that analyzing shape-space trajectories offers a principled tool for understanding and comparing data augmentation methods.


A Theory of Generalization in Deep Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a non-asymptotic theory of generalization in deep learning where the empirical neural tangent kernel partitions the output space. In directions corresponding to signal, error dissipates rapidly; in the vast orthogonal dimensions corresponding to noise, the kernel's near-zero eigenvalues trap residual error in a test-invisible reservoir. Within the signal channel, minibatch SGD ensures that coherent population signal accumulates via fast linear drift, while idiosyncratic memorization is suppressed into a slow, diffusive random walk. We prove generalization survives even when the kernel evolves $\mathcal{O}(1)$ in operator norm, the full feature-learning regime. This theory naturally explains disparate phenomena in deep learning theory, such as benign overfitting, double descent, implicit bias, and grokking. Lastly, we derive an exact population-risk objective from a single training run with no validation data, for any architecture, loss, or optimizer, and prove that it measures precisely the noise in the signal channel. This objective reduces in practice to an SNR preconditioner on top of Adam, adding one state vector at no extra cost; it accelerates grokking by $5 \times$, suppresses memorization in PINNs and implicit neural representations, and improves DPO fine-tuning under noisy preferences while staying $3 \times$ closer to the reference policy.


Explanation of Dynamic Physical Field Predictions using WassersteinGrad: Application to Autoregressive Weather Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As the demand to integrate Artificial Intelligence into high-stakes environments continues to grow, explaining the reasoning behind neural-network predictions has shifted from a theoretical curiosity to a strict operational requirement. Our work is motivated by the explanations of autoregressive neural predictions on dynamic physical fields, as in weather forecasting. Gradient-based feature attribution methods are widely used to explain the predictions on such data, in particular due to their scalability to high-dimensional inputs. It is also interesting to remark that gradient-based techniques such as SmoothGrad are now standard on images to robustify the explanations using pointwise averages of the attribution maps obtained from several noised inputs. Our goal is to efficiently adapt this aggregation strategy to dynamic physical fields. To do so, our first contribution is to identify a fundamental failure mode when averaging perturbed attribution maps on dynamic physical fields: stochastic input perturbations do not induce stationary amplitude noise in attribution maps, but instead cause a geometric displacement of the attributions. Consequently, pointwise averaging blurs these spatially misaligned features. To tackle this issue, we introduce WassersteinGrad, which extracts a geometric consensus of perturbed attribution maps by computing their entropic Wasserstein barycenter. The results, obtained on regional weather data and a meteorologist-validated neural model, demonstrate promising explainability properties of WassersteinGrad over gradient-based baselines across both single-step and autoregressive forecasting settings.