direct effect
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Long-TailedClassificationbyKeepingtheGoodand RemovingtheBadMomentumCausalEffect
Therefore, long-tailed classification is the key to deep learning at scale. However, existing methods are mainly based on reweighting/re-sampling heuristics that lack a fundamental theory. In this paper, weestablish acausal inference framework,which notonlyunravelsthewhysof previous methods, but also derives a new principled solution.
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Distributed Causality in the SDG Network: Evidence from Panel VAR and Conditional Independence Analysis
Fahim, Md Muhtasim Munif, Imran, Md Jahid Hasan, Debnath, Luknath, Shill, Tonmoy, Molla, Md. Naim, Pranto, Ehsanul Bashar, Saad, Md Shafin Sanyan, Karim, Md Rezaul
The achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is dependent upon strategic resource distribution. We propose a causal discovery framework using Panel Vector Autoregression, along with both country-specific fixed effects and PCMCI+ conditional independence testing on 168 countries (2000-2025) to develop the first complete causal architecture of SDG dependencies. Utilizing 8 strategically chosen SDGs, we identify a distributed causal network (i.e., no single 'hub' SDG), with 10 statistically significant Granger-causal relationships identified as 11 unique direct effects. Education to Inequality is identified as the most statistically significant direct relationship (r = -0.599; p < 0.05), while effect magnitude significantly varies depending on income levels (e.g., high-income: r = -0.65; lower-middle-income: r = -0.06; non-significant). We also reject the idea that there exists a single 'keystone' SDG. Additionally, we offer a proposed tiered priority framework for the SDGs namely, identifying upstream drivers (Education, Growth), enabling goals (Institutions, Energy), and downstream outcomes (Poverty, Health). Therefore, we conclude that effective SDG acceleration can be accomplished through coordinated multi-dimensional intervention(s), and that single-goal sequential strategies are insufficient.
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Unbiased Scene Graph Generation from Biased Training
Tang, Kaihua, Niu, Yulei, Huang, Jianqiang, Shi, Jiaxin, Zhang, Hanwang
Today's scene graph generation (SGG) task is still far from practical, mainly due to the severe training bias, e.g., collapsing diverse "human walk on / sit on / lay on beach" into "human on beach". Given such SGG, the down-stream tasks such as VQA can hardly infer better scene structures than merely a bag of objects. However, debiasing in SGG is not trivial because traditional debiasing methods cannot distinguish between the good and bad bias, e.g., good context prior (e.g., "person read book" rather than "eat") and bad long-tailed bias (e.g., "near" dominating "behind / in front of"). In this paper, we present a novel SGG framework based on causal inference but not the conventional likelihood. We first build a causal graph for SGG, and perform traditional biased training with the graph. Then, we propose to draw the counterfactual causality from the trained graph to infer the effect from the bad bias, which should be removed. In particular, we use Total Direct Effect (TDE) as the proposed final predicate score for unbiased SGG. Note that our framework is agnostic to any SGG model and thus can be widely applied in the community who seeks unbiased predictions. By using the proposed Scene Graph Diagnosis toolkit on the SGG benchmark Visual Genome and several prevailing models, we observed significant improvements over the previous state-of-the-art methods.
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