diffsformer
"Generative Models for Financial Time Series Data: Enhancing Signal-to-Noise Ratio and Addressing Data Scarcity in A-Share Market
The financial industry is increasingly seeking robust methods to address the challenges posed by data scarcity and low signal-to-noise ratios, which limit the application of deep learning techniques in stock market analysis. This paper presents two innovative generative model-based approaches to synthesize stock data, specifically tailored for different scenarios within the A-share market in China. The first method, a sector-based synthesis approach, enhances the signal-to-noise ratio of stock data by classifying the characteristics of stocks from various sectors in China's A-share market. This method employs an Approximate Non-Local Total Variation algorithm to smooth the generated data, a bandpass filtering method based on Fourier Transform to eliminate noise, and Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models to accelerate sampling speed. The second method, a recursive stock data synthesis approach based on pattern recognition, is designed to synthesize data for stocks with short listing periods and limited comparable companies. It leverages pattern recognition techniques and Markov models to learn and generate variable-length stock sequences, while introducing a sub-time-level data augmentation method to alleviate data scarcity issues.We validate the effectiveness of these methods through extensive experiments on various datasets, including those from the main board, STAR Market, Growth Enterprise Market Board, Beijing Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, NYSE, and AMEX. The results demonstrate that our synthesized data not only improve the performance of predictive models but also enhance the signal-to-noise ratio of individual stock signals in price trading strategies. Furthermore, the introduction of sub-time-level data significantly improves the quality of synthesized data.
DiffsFormer: A Diffusion Transformer on Stock Factor Augmentation
Gao, Yuan, Chen, Haokun, Wang, Xiang, Wang, Zhicai, Wang, Xue, Gao, Jinyang, Ding, Bolin
Machine learning models have demonstrated remarkable efficacy and efficiency in a wide range of stock forecasting tasks. However, the inherent challenges of data scarcity, including low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and data homogeneity, pose significant obstacles to accurate forecasting. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach that utilizes artificial intelligence-generated samples (AIGS) to enhance the training procedures. In our work, we introduce the Diffusion Model to generate stock factors with Transformer architecture (DiffsFormer). DiffsFormer is initially trained on a large-scale source domain, incorporating conditional guidance so as to capture global joint distribution. When presented with a specific downstream task, we employ DiffsFormer to augment the training procedure by editing existing samples. This editing step allows us to control the strength of the editing process, determining the extent to which the generated data deviates from the target domain. To evaluate the effectiveness of DiffsFormer augmented training, we conduct experiments on the CSI300 and CSI800 datasets, employing eight commonly used machine learning models. The proposed method achieves relative improvements of 7.2% and 27.8% in annualized return ratio for the respective datasets. Furthermore, we perform extensive experiments to gain insights into the functionality of DiffsFormer and its constituent components, elucidating how they address the challenges of data scarcity and enhance the overall model performance. Our research demonstrates the efficacy of leveraging AIGS and the DiffsFormer architecture to mitigate data scarcity in stock forecasting tasks.