Accurate energy demand forecasting is essential for the reliable operation and planning of modern sustainable energy systems. Spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have recently achieved strong performance in point forecasting by jointly modeling temporal dynamics and relational dependencies across interconnected energy nodes. However, in real-world energy systems, accurate point forecasts alone are insufficient, as operators also require reliable uncertainty estimates to support risk-aware decision-making, grid stability, and operational planning under uncertainty. Conformal prediction provides a principled and model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification with statistical coverage guarantees, making it particularly attractive for safety-critical energy applications. However, existing conformal prediction approaches often fail to fully capture the complex spatial-temporal structure of energy systems. To address these limitations, we propose STOIC (Spatial-Temporal Graph Conformal Prediction with In-Context Learning), a novel framework that integrates graph-based forecasting with the zero-shot calibration capabilities of tabular foundation models. STOIC first generates point forecasts using an STGNN and subsequently reformulates spatial-temporal residuals into a tabular representation suitable for in-context learning. Leveraging a tabular foundation model, STOIC calibrates prediction intervals without task-specific retraining, effectively capturing both sequential and relational dependencies. We evaluate STOIC on five diverse benchmarks, including synthetic simulations as well as real-world electricity and district heating networks. Across all datasets, STOIC consistently outperforms existing conformal prediction baselines, delivering more reliable and robust uncertainty estimates for complex graph-structured energy time series.

We present a universal theoretical framework for understanding long-context language modeling based on a bipartite mutual information scaling law that we rigorously verify in natural language. We demonstrate that bipartite mutual information captures multi-token interactions distinct from and scaling independently of conventional two-point mutual information, and show that this provides a more complete characterization of the dependencies needed for accurately modeling long sequences. Leveraging this scaling law, we formulate the Long-context Language Modeling (L2M) condition, which lower bounds the necessary scaling of a model's history state--the latent variables responsible for storing past information--for effective long-context modeling.

Accurately modeling complex dynamic spatio-temporal systems requires capturing flow-mediated interdependencies and context-sensitive interaction dynamics. Existing methods, predominantly graph-based or attention-driven, rely on similaritydriven connectivity assumptions, neglecting asymmetric flow exchanges that govern system evolution. We propose Spatio-Temporal Flow, a physics-inspired paradigm that explicitly models dynamic node couplings through quantifiable flow transfers governed by conservation principles. Building on this, we design FlowNet, a novel architecture leveraging flow tokens as information carriers to simulate source-todestination transfers via Flow Allocation Modules, ensuring state redistribution aligns with conservation laws. FlowNet dynamically adjusts the interaction radius through an Adaptive Spatial Masking module, suppressing irrelevant noise while enabling context-aware propagation. A cascaded architecture enhances scalability and nonlinear representation capacity. Experiments demonstrate that FlowNet significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches on seven metrics in the modeling of three real-world systems, validating its efficiency and physical interpretability. We establish a principled methodology for modeling complex systems through spatio-temporal flow interactions.

Discrete diffusion models have recently gained significant prominence in applications involving natural language and graph data. A key factor influencing their effectiveness is the efficiency of discretized samplers. Among these, τ-leaping samplers have become particularly popular due to their theoretical and empirical success. However, existing theoretical analyses of τ-leaping often rely on somewhat restrictive and difficult-to-verify regularity assumptions, and their convergence bounds contain quadratic dependence on the vocabulary size. In this work, we introduce a new analytical approach for discrete diffusion models that removes the need for such assumptions. For the standard τ-leaping method, we establish convergence guarantees in KL divergence that scale linearly with vocabulary size, improving upon prior results with quadratic dependence. Our approach is also more broadly applicable: it provides the first convergence guarantees for other widely used samplers, including the Euler method and Tweedie τ-leaping. Central to our approach is a novel technique based on differential inequalities, offering a more flexible alternative to the traditional Girsanov change-of-measure methods. This technique may also be of independent interest for the analysis of other stochastic processes.

Inferring directed interactions between neural systems from EEG and MEG remains challenging due to noise, nonstationarity, and the high sample complexity of informationtheoretic estimators. Transfer Entropy (TE) provides a principled and model-free measure of directed information flow, however its practical estimation is not stable in finite data regimes (particularly as embedding dimension increases). This work introduces Embedded Polygon Symbolic Transfer Entropy (EPSTE), a framework that reframes TE estimation as a learnable problem operating on structured symbolic representations of local temporal morphology rather than raw signal amplitudes. Neural time series are decomposed into sequences of geometric primitives derived from local triplets of samples encoding complementary aspects of waveform structure such as magnitude, curvature and directional change. These primitives are discretised into symbolic tokens, yielding a compact but expressive state space over which symbolic TE is estimated. A recurrent neural network with attention-based multiple-instance learning is trained to predict surrogate-validated TE values from bags of symbolic temporal windows. The method is evaluated on source-reconstructed MEG data parcellated using the AAL90 atlas and compared against a standard symbolic baseline using identical architectures and supervision. The results demonstrate that while local window-level predictions are noisy, aggregation across trials and channel pairs yields stable directed dependencies. At the pair level, EPSTE achieves near-perfect recovery of ground-truth directed structure (Pearson r 0.99, R 0.98) and significantly lower absolute error than the baseline (Wilcoxon signed-rank test, p 2.9 10), indicating that representational geometry plays a critical role in enabling practical learnability of information-theoretic dependencies.

Concept erasure aims to remove unwanted attributes, such as social or demographic factors, from learned representations, while preserving their task-relevant utility. While the goal of concept erasure is protection against all adversaries, existing methods remain vulnerable to nonlinear ones. This vulnerability arises from their failure to fully capture the complex, nonlinear statistical dependencies between learned representations and unwanted attributes. Moreover, although the existence of a trade-off between utility and erasure is expected, its progression during the erasure process, i.e., the cost of erasure, remains unstudied. In this work, we introduce Obliviator, a post-hoc erasure method designed to fully capture nonlinear statistical dependencies.

Dependency parsing is the task of inferring natural language structure, often approached by modeling word interactions via attention through biaffine scoring. This mechanism works like self-attention in Transformers, where scores are calculated for every pair of words in a sentence. However, unlike Transformer attention, biaffine scoring does not use normalization prior to taking the softmax of the scores. In this paper, we provide theoretical evidence and empirical results revealing that a lack of normalization necessarily results in overparameterized parser models, where the extra parameters compensate for the sharp softmax outputs produced by high variance inputs to the biaffine scoring function. We argue that biaffine scoring can be made substantially more efficient by performing score normalization. We conduct experiments on semantic and syntactic dependency parsing in multiple languages, along with latent graph inference on non-linguistic data, using various settings of a k-hop parser. We train N-layer stacked BiLSTMs and evaluate the parser's performance with and without normalizing biaffine scores. Normalizing allows us to achieve state-of-the-art performance with fewer samples and trainable parameters.

When a vision model performs image recognition, which visual attributes drive its predictions? Detecting unintended reliance on specific visual features is critical for ensuring model robustness, preventing overfitting, and avoiding spurious correlations. We introduce an automated framework for detecting such dependencies in trained vision models. At the core of our method is a self-reflective agent that systematically generates and tests hypotheses about visual attributes that a model may rely on. This process is iterative: the agent refines its hypotheses based on experimental outcomes and uses a self-evaluation protocol to assess whether its findings accurately explain model behavior. When inconsistencies arise, the agent self-reflects over its findings and triggers a new cycle of experimentation. We evaluate our approach on a novel benchmark of 130 models designed to exhibit diverse visual attribute dependencies across 18 categories. Our results show that the agent's performance consistently improves with self-reflection, with a significant performance increase over non-reflective baselines. We further demonstrate that the agent identifies real-world visual attribute dependencies in state-of-the-art models, including CLIP's vision encoder and the YOLOv8 object detector.

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) address these issues by enabling controllable, any-order, and parallel generation but encounter training difficulties as token prediction complexity varies with unmasked token positions. This work identifies two key characteristics of efficient MDM sampling paths: prioritizing tokens near unmasked ones and generating subsequence earlier in reasoning. We propose the Simple Path Masked Diffusion Model (SPMDM), which partitions sequences into fixed-length, non-overlapping subsequences and applies varying noise scales to learn token-level and cross-subsequence dependencies.

Speech is a fundamental form of human communication, and speech perception constitutes the initial stage of language comprehension. Although brain-to-speech interface technologies have made significant progress in recent years, most existing studies focus on neural decoding during speech production. Such approaches heavily rely on articulatory motor regions, rendering them unsuitable for individuals with speech motor impairments, such as those with aphasia or locked-in syndrome. To address this limitation, we construct and release NeuroListen, the first publicly available stereo-electroencephalography (sEEG) dataset specifically designed for auditory reconstruction. It contains over 10 hours of neuralspeech paired recordings from 5 clinical participants, covering a wide range of semantic categories. Building on this dataset, we propose HyperSpeech, a multi-band neural decoding framework that employs dynamic spatio-temporal hypergraph neural networks to capture high-order dependencies across frequency, spatial, and temporal dimensions. Experimental results demonstrate that HyperSpeech significantly outperforms existing methods across multiple objective speech quality metrics, and achieves superior performance in human subjective evaluations, validating its effectiveness and advancement. This study provides a dedicated dataset and modeling framework for auditory speech decoding, offering foundations for neural language processing and assistive communication systems.