Methods for probability updating, of which Bayesian conditionalization is the most well-known and widely used, are modeling tools that aim to represent the process of modifying an initial epistemic state, typically represented by a prior probability function P, which is adjusted in light of new information. Notably, updating methods and conditional sentences seem to intuitively share a deep connection, as is evident in the case of conditionalization. The present work contributes to this line of research and aims at shedding new light on the relationship between updating methods and conditional connectives. Departing from previous literature that often focused on a specific type of conditional or a particular updating method, our goal is to prove general results concerning the connection between conditionals and their probabilities. This will allow us to characterize the probabilities of certain conditional connectives and to understand what class of updating procedures can be represented using specific conditional connectives. Broadly, we adopt a general perspective that encompasses a large class of conditionals and a wide range of updating methods, enabling us to prove some general results concerning their interrelation.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in finance and economics, where prompt-based attempts against look-ahead bias implicitly assume that models understand chronology. We test this fundamental question with a series of chronological ordering tasks with increasing complexities over facts the model already knows from pre-training. Our tasks cover (1) chronological ordering, (2) conditional sorting (filter, then order), and (3) anachronism detection. We evaluate GPT-4.1, Claude-3.7 Sonnet, with and without Extended Thinking (ET), and GPT-5 across multiple reasoning-effort settings. Across models, Exact match rate drops sharply as sequences lengthen even while rank correlations stay high as LLMs largely preserve local order but struggle to maintain a single globally consistent timeline. In conditional sorting, most failures stem from the filtering step rather than the ordering step, but GPT-5 and Claude-3.7 Sonnet with Extended Thinking outshine normal models significantly. Lastly, anachronism detection is found to be the easiest task for the LLMs but performance still declines with increasingly overlapping timelines or entities. Overall, our main contribution is showing that allocating explicit reasoning budget helps with chronological ordering with GPT-5 at medium/high reasoning effort achieving flawless ordering at all lengths and perfect conditional sorting (both self-filtered and given-subset), whereas low/minimal effort degrades with longer lists, mirroring earlier models. Our findings delineate limits of current LLMs on chronological tasks, providing insights into task complexity, and demonstrate scenarios in which reasoning helps. These patterns are important for the real-time application of LLMs in finance. We release all code and evaluation templates to support full reproducibility.

The application of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) in remote sensing (RS) has demonstrated significant potential in traditional tasks such as scene classification, object detection, and image captioning. However, current models, which excel in Referring Expression Comprehension (REC), struggle with tasks involving complex instructions (e.g., exists multiple conditions) or pixel-level operations like segmentation and change detection. In this white paper, we provide a comprehensive hierarchical summary of vision-language tasks in RS, categorized by the varying levels of cognitive capability required. We introduce the Remote Sensing Vision-Language Task Set (RSVLTS), which includes Open-Vocabulary Tasks (OVT), Referring Expression Tasks (RET), and Described Object Tasks (DOT) with increased difficulty, and Visual Question Answering (VQA) aloneside. Moreover, we propose a novel unified data representation using a set-of-points approach for RSVLTS, along with a condition parser and a self-augmentation strategy based on cyclic referring. These features are integrated into the GeoRSMLLM model, and this enhanced model is designed to handle a broad range of tasks of RSVLTS, paving the way for a more generalized solution for vision-language tasks in geoscience and remote sensing.

The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics recognized a theory of causal inference, which deserves more attention from philosophers. To that end, I develop a dialectic that extends the Lewis-Stalnaker debate on a logical principle called Conditional Excluded Middle (CEM). I first play the good cop for CEM, and give a new argument for it: a Quine-Putnam indispensability argument based on the Nobel-Prize winning theory. But then I switch sides and play the bad cop: I undermine that argument with a new theory of causal inference that preserves the success of the original theory but dispenses with CEM.

It has been widely observed that exact or approximate MAP (mode-seeking) decoding from natural language generation (NLG) models consistently leads to degenerate outputs (Stahlberg and Byrne, 2019, Holtzman et al., 2019). This has generally been attributed to either a fundamental inadequacy of modes in models or weaknesses in language modeling. Contrastingly in this work, we emphasize that degenerate modes can even occur in the absence of any model error, due to contamination of the training data. Specifically, we show that mixing even a tiny amount of low-entropy noise with a population text distribution can cause the data distribution's mode to become degenerate, implying that any models trained on it will be as well. As the unconditional mode of NLG models will often be degenerate, we therefore propose to apply MAP decoding to the model's distribution conditional on avoiding specific degeneracies. Using exact-search, we empirically verify that the length-conditional modes of machine translation models and language models are indeed more fluent and topical than their unconditional modes. For the first time, we also share many examples of exact modal sequences from these models, and from several variants of the LLaMA-7B model. Notably, the modes of the LLaMA models are still degenerate, showing that improvements in modeling have not fixed this issue. Because of the cost of exact mode finding algorithms, we develop an approximate mode finding approach, ACBS, which finds sequences that are both high-likelihood and high-quality. We apply this approach to LLaMA-7B, a model which was not trained for instruction following, and find that we are able to elicit reasonable outputs without any finetuning.

Despite their groundbreaking performance for many generative modeling tasks, diffusion models have fallen short on discrete data domains such as natural language. Crucially, standard diffusion models rely on the well-established theory of score matching, but efforts to generalize this to discrete structures have not yielded the same empirical gains. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing score entropy, a novel discrete score matching loss that is more stable than existing methods, forms an ELBO for maximum likelihood training, and can be efficiently optimized with a denoising variant. We scale our Score Entropy Discrete Diffusion models (SEDD) to the experimental setting of GPT-2, achieving highly competitive likelihoods while also introducing distinct algorithmic advantages. In particular, when comparing similarly sized SEDD and GPT-2 models, SEDD attains comparable perplexities (normally within $+10\%$ of and sometimes outperforming the baseline). Furthermore, SEDD models learn a more faithful sequence distribution (around $4\times$ better compared to GPT-2 models with ancestral sampling as measured by large models), can trade off compute for generation quality (needing only $16\times$ fewer network evaluations to match GPT-2), and enables arbitrary infilling beyond the standard left to right prompting.

This paper considers the task of linear regression with shuffled labels, i.e., $\mathbf Y = \mathbf \Pi \mathbf X \mathbf B + \mathbf W$, where $\mathbf Y \in \mathbb R^{n\times m}, \mathbf Pi \in \mathbb R^{n\times n}, \mathbf X\in \mathbb R^{n\times p}, \mathbf B \in \mathbb R^{p\times m}$, and $\mathbf W\in \mathbb R^{n\times m}$, respectively, represent the sensing results, (unknown or missing) corresponding information, sensing matrix, signal of interest, and additive sensing noise. Given the observation $\mathbf Y$ and sensing matrix $\mathbf X$, we propose a one-step estimator to reconstruct $(\mathbf \Pi, \mathbf B)$. From the computational perspective, our estimator's complexity is $O(n^3 + np^2m)$, which is no greater than the maximum complexity of a linear assignment algorithm (e.g., $O(n^3)$) and a least square algorithm (e.g., $O(np^2 m)$). From the statistical perspective, we divide the minimum $snr$ requirement into four regimes, e.g., unknown, hard, medium, and easy regimes; and present sufficient conditions for the correct permutation recovery under each regime: $(i)$ $snr \geq \Omega(1)$ in the easy regime; $(ii)$ $snr \geq \Omega(\log n)$ in the medium regime; and $(iii)$ $snr \geq \Omega((\log n)^{c_0}\cdot n^{{c_1}/{srank(\mathbf B)}})$ in the hard regime ($c_0, c_1$ are some positive constants and $srank(\mathbf B)$ denotes the stable rank of $\mathbf B$). In the end, we also provide numerical experiments to confirm the above claims.

Belief contraction is the operation of removing from the set K of initial beliefs a particular belief φ . One reason for doing so is, for example, the discovery that some previously trusted evidence supporting φ was faulty. For instance, a prosecutor might form the belief that the defendant is guilty on the basis of his confession; if the prosecutor later discovers that the confession was extorted, she might abandon the belief of guilt, that is, become open minded about whether the defendant is guilty or not. In their seminal contribution to belief change, Alchourrón, Gärdenfors and Makinson ([1]) defined the notion of "rational and minimal" contraction by means of a set of eight properties, known as the AGM axioms or postulates. They did so within a syntactic approach where the initial belief set K is a consistent and deductively closed set of propositional formulas and the result of removing φ from K is a new set of propositional formulas, denoted by K φ . We provide a new characterization of AGM belief contraction based on a so-far-unnoticed connection between the notion of belief contraction and the Stalnaker-Lewis theory of conditionals ([34, 21]).

This paper develops a trivalent semantics for the truth conditions and the probability of the natural language indicative conditional. Our framework rests on trivalent truth conditions first proposed by W. Cooper and yields two logics of conditional reasoning: (i) a logic C of inference from certain premises; and (ii) a logic U of inference from uncertain premises. But whereas C is monotonic for the conditional, U is not, and whereas C obeys Modus Ponens, U does not without restrictions. We show systematic correspondences between trivalent and probabilistic representations of inferences in either framework, and we use the distinction between the two systems to cast light, in particular, on McGee's puzzle about Modus Ponens. The result is a unified account of the semantics and epistemology of indicative conditionals that can be fruitfully applied to analyzing the validity of conditional inferences.

Clustering is commonly performed as an initial analysis step for uncovering structure in 'omics datasets, e.g. to discover molecular subtypes of disease. The high-throughput, high-dimensional nature of these datasets means that they provide information on a diverse array of different biomolecular processes and pathways. Different groups of variables (e.g. genes or proteins) will be implicated in different biomolecular processes, and hence undertaking analyses that are limited to identifying just a single clustering partition of the whole dataset is therefore liable to conflate the multiple clustering structures that may arise from these distinct processes. To address this, we propose a multi-view Bayesian mixture model that identifies groups of variables (``views"), each of which defines a distinct clustering structure. We consider applications in stratified medicine, for which our principal goal is to identify clusters of patients that define distinct, clinically actionable disease subtypes. We adopt the semi-supervised, outcome-guided mixture modelling approach of Bayesian profile regression that makes use of a response variable in order to guide inference toward the clusterings that are most relevant in a stratified medicine context. We present the model, together with illustrative simulation examples, and examples from pan-cancer proteomics. We demonstrate how the approach can be used to perform integrative clustering, and consider an example in which different 'omics datasets are integrated in the context of breast cancer subtyping.