For a transition between two stable states, the committor is the probability that the dynamics leads to one stable state before the other. It can be estimated from trajectory data by minimizing an expression for the transition rate that depends on a lag time. We show that an existing such expression is minimized by the exact committor only when the lag time is a single time step, resulting in a biased estimate in practical applications. We introduce an alternative expression that is minimized by the exact committor at any lag time. The key idea is that, when trajectories enter the stable states, the times that they enter (stopping times) must be used for estimating the committor and transition rate instead of the lag time. Numerical tests on benchmark systems demonstrate that our committor and transition rate estimates are much less sensitive to the choice of lag time. We show how further accuracy for the transition rate can be achieved by combining results from two lag times. We also relate the transition rate expression to a variational approach for kinetic statistics based on the mean-squared residual and discuss further numerical considerations with the aid of a decomposition of the error into dynamic modes.

Identifying optimal collective variables to model transformations, using atomic-scale simulations, is a long-standing challenge. We propose a new method for the generation, optimization, and comparison of collective variables, which can be thought of as a data-driven generalization of the path collective variable concept. It consists in a kernel ridge regression of the committor probability, which encodes a transformation's progress. The resulting collective variable is one-dimensional, interpretable, and differentiable, making it appropriate for enhanced sampling simulations requiring biasing. We demonstrate the validity of the method on two different applications: a precipitation model, and the association of Li$^+$ and F$^-$ in water. For the former, we show that global descriptors such as the permutation invariant vector allow to reach an accuracy far from the one achieved \textit{via} simpler, more intuitive variables. For the latter, we show that information correlated with the transformation mechanism is contained in the first solvation shell only, and that inertial effects prevent the derivation of optimal collective variables from the atomic positions only.

Understanding dynamics in complex systems is challenging because there are many degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are often not obvious. The leading eigenfunctions of the transition operator are useful for visualization, and they can provide an efficient basis for computing statistics such as the likelihood and average time of events (predictions). Here we develop inexact iterative linear algebra methods for computing these eigenfunctions (spectral estimation) and making predictions from a data set of short trajectories sampled at finite intervals. We demonstrate the methods on a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization and a high-dimensional model of a biomolecular system. Implications for the prediction problem in reinforcement learning are discussed.

The computer simulation of many molecular processes is complicated by long time scales caused by rare transitions between long-lived states. Here, we propose a new approach to simulate such rare events, which combines transition path sampling with enhanced exploration of configuration space. The method relies on exchange moves between configuration and trajectory space, carried out based on a generalized ensemble. This scheme substantially enhances the efficiency of the transition path sampling simulations, particularly for systems with multiple transition channels, and yields information on thermodynamics, kinetics and reaction coordinates of molecular processes without distorting their dynamics. The method is illustrated using the isomerization of proline in the KPTP tetrapeptide.