Score 0 4 (normal) is most common across cohorts, while score 3 (severe) is rare--especially in PD-GaM 5 and 3DGait, highlighting class imbalance challenges. BMCLab offers a balanced ON/OFF medication split, 7 while E-LC is skewed toward ON-medication. DNE includes healthy, Parkinsonian, and other disease 8 groups for broader contrastive training. Figure A.3 shows label distributions for FoG-related cohorts. This artifact likely stems from the unusual top-down perspective--different from the front15 facing or side views seen in WHAM's training data [1]. While motion encoder-based models may be 16 robust to such distortions, feature-based gait classifiers rely on precise kinematic measurements and 17 thus require carefully corrected input data. To correct this slope artifact, we perform a frame-wise 18 rigid alignment of the reconstructed SMPL skeleton using the Kabsch algorithm [2]. The goal is to 19 rotate each frame so that anatomical directions align with canonical coordinate axes (up, forward), 20 while preserving natural gait structure. This motion 28 vector is then projected onto the ground plane (xz-plane) and used as the walking axis. In frames where the sacrum displacement is less than 30 4mm--indicating near-stationary posture--we fall back on a proxy direction: the cross product of 31 the hip vector (left hip to right hip) and the vertical vector.

Clinical risk prediction plays a crucial role in early disease detection and personalized intervention. While recent models increasingly incorporate multimodal data, their development typically assumes access to large-scale, multimodal datasets and substantial computational resources. In practice, however, most clinical sites operate under resource constraints, with access limited to EHR data alone and insufficient capacity to train complicated models. This gap highlights the urgent need to democratize clinical risk prediction by enabling effective deployment in dataand resource-limited local clinical settings. In this work, we propose a cross-cohort cross-modal knowledge transfer framework that leverages the multimodal model trained on a nationwide cohort and adapts it to local cohorts with only EHR data. We focus on EHR and genetic data as representative multimodal inputs and address two key challenges. First, to mitigate the influence of noisy or less informative biological signals, we propose a novel mixture-of-aggregations design to enhance the modeling of informative and relevant genetic features. Second, to support rapid model adaptation in low-resource sites, we develop a lightweight graph-guided fine-tuning method that adapts pretrained phenotypical EHR representations to local cohorts using limited patient data. Extensive experiments on real-world clinical data validate the effectiveness of our proposed model.

In this paper, we propose HiPoNet, an end-to-end differentiable neural network for regression, classification, and representation learning on high-dimensional point clouds. Our work is motivated by single-cell data which can have very high-dimensionality --exceeding the capabilities of existing methods for point clouds which are mostly tailored for 3D data. Moreover, modern single-cell and spatial experiments now yield entire cohorts of datasets (i.e., one data set for every patient), necessitating models that can process large, high-dimensional point-clouds at scale. Most current approaches build a single nearest-neighbor graph, discarding important geometric and topological information. In contrast, HiPoNet models the point-cloud as a set of higher-order simplicial complexes, with each particular complex being created using a reweighting of features. This method thus generates multiple constructs corresponding to different views of high-dimensional data, which in biology offers the possibility of disentangling distinct cellular processes. It then employs simplicial wavelet transforms to extract multiscale features, capturing both local and global topology from each view. We show that geometric and topological information is preserved in this framework both theoretically and empirically.

Clinical risk prediction plays a crucial role in early disease detection and personalized intervention. While recent models increasingly incorporate multimodal data, their development typically assumes access to large-scale, multimodal datasets and substantial computational resources. In practice, however, most clinical sites operate under resource constraints, with access limited to EHR data alone and insufficient capacity to train complicated models. This gap highlights the urgent need to democratize clinical risk prediction by enabling effective deployment in data-and resource-limited local clinical settings. In this work, we propose a cross-cohort cross-modal knowledge transfer framework that leverages the multimodal model trained on a nationwide cohort and adapts it to local cohorts with only EHR data. We focus on EHR and genetic data as representative multimodal inputs and address two key challenges. First, to mitigate the influence of noisy or less informative biological signals, we propose a novel mixture-of-aggregations design to enhance the modeling of informative and relevant genetic features. Second, to support rapid model adaptation in low-resource sites, we develop a lightweight graph-guided fine-tuning method that adapts pretrained phenotypical EHR representations to target cohorts using limited patient data. Extensive experiments on real-world clinical data validate the effectiveness of our proposed model.

Integrating multimodal datasets in clinical oncology is frequently hindered by high dimensionality and blockwise missingness, where entire data sources are unavailable for specific patient subsets. Standard survival models often struggle with these gaps, leading to biased results or patient exclusion. We introduce Multimodality Stacking with Blockwise missing values (MSB), a late-fusion framework for survival analysis that independently models modality-specific features before aggregating predictions via a cross-validated stacking meta-learner. MSB was validated on the PIONeeR study (n=443 patients, 378 biomarkers across eight heterogeneous sources) to predict progression-free survival in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients receiving immunotherapy. MSB yielded higher predictive performance (C-index) than baseline algorithms. Improvements varied by baseline strength: linear models showed a 15.9% increase (p<0.001 for the Wilcoxon signed-rank test), random survival forests gained 5.4% (p=0.002), and gradient boosting methods improved by 2.1% (p=0.030). Beyond discrimination, MSB reduced the generalization gap (train-test difference in 5 folds cross-validation repeated 3 times: 0.055 vs 0.380 for linear models). Permutation importance analysis identified routine laboratory markers, clinical features, and PD-L1 expression as primary predictive drivers. Missing block indicators showed negligible importance, suggesting the model learned from biomarker values rather than data availability patterns. MSB provides a statistically validated framework for multimodal survival prediction with blockwise missingness. By enabling systematic biomarker evaluation without requiring complete data, MSB offers a practical tool for predictive modeling in biomedical research, pending external validation. Implementation is available at https://github.com/MohamedBoussena/MSB under Inria license.

Microsimulation models used by ministries of finance and central banks rely on parametric processes for lifetime earnings that capture only first and second moments of the conditional distribution and miss long-range nonlinear structure. We propose SAGA, a decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular panel sequences, paired with a split conformal calibration wrapper that delivers individual-level prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees. Trained on the longitudinal Swedish LISA register over 1990 to 2022, comprising 2,143,817 individuals and 61,284,903 person-years, the model forecasts annual labor earnings at horizons of one to thirty years and aggregates them by Monte Carlo into present-discounted lifetime earnings distributions. Against the canonical Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song parametric process and tabular and recurrent baselines, SAGA reduces continuous ranked probability score by 31.9 percent at the ten-year horizon and mean absolute error by 37.7 percent at the twenty-year horizon. Conformal intervals achieve nominal coverage to within 0.4 percentage points marginally and within 2.4 percentage points on the worst-case demographic subgroup. The reconstructed lifetime earnings Gini coefficient is 0.327 against the partially observed truth of 0.341 and the GKOS estimate of 0.378. Model weights, calibration tables, and a synthetic equivalent dataset are released for replication outside the protected SCB MONA environment.

Capped-usage SaaS products -- LLM subscriptions such as Claude Code and ChatGPT, cloud platforms such as Vercel and Cloudflare Workers, corporate benefit platforms, identity-verification services with liability transfer -- share a structural signature with insurance products: a fixed premium decoupled from realized consumption, stochastic per-user demand with heavy-tailed severity, a non-fungible cap that resets on a fixed schedule, and a portfolio-level exposure that requires reserve adequacy under tail risk. We argue that this is not an analogy. It is the same operational problem actuarial science has been tooled for decades to address, restated with new dependent variables (tokens, bandwidth bytes, function-invocations, gym check-ins) in place of medical claims. This paper proposes a modeling framework for capped-usage SaaS pricing built from frequency-severity decomposition, premium calculation principles, and Monte Carlo reserve adequacy. We map the framework to publicly observable subscription tiers in two domains (LLM services and cloud platforms), ground it in canonical health-insurance economics (Arrow 1963; Pauly 1968; Manning et al. 1987; Brot-Goldberg et al. 2017), and demonstrate divergence from traditional unit economics through a worked example. The contribution is operational rather than theoretical: not a new theorem, but vocabulary and tools currently absent from cs.LG/stat.ML practice.

We developed a tool for detecting domain shifts, namely subtle differences in the probability distributions of datasets. We identify these shifts using an algorithm designed to detect localised density anomalies in high-dimensional feature spaces. If an anomaly is present, we then identify the feature subspace in which the anomaly is most pronounced. This allows us to trace the domain shift to a small set of features, making the shift interpretable. Moreover, we provide a protocol for compensating domain shifts by extracting, from two unlabelled datasets, subsets of samples with no detectable residual distributional difference. We validate the framework on controlled 20-dimensional benchmarks with known ground truth, recovering both broad and localized shifts together with their supporting feature subspaces. We then apply it to healthy electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings represented by 782 features. In age- and sex-matched cohort comparisons differing in measurement-device composition, the method detects device-induced shifts, extracts representative subsets enriched in the imbalanced device components, and identifies ECG features associated with the acquisition contrast. These results suggest that density-shift detection and subspace attribution provide a practical framework for uncovering hidden cohort biases before downstream modelling.

Many decision in clinical science and epidemiology -- estimating probability of technical success for a clinical trial, assessing comparative effectiveness of two therapies, imputing a placebo effect onto natural history data -- rely on combining sources of information about a clinical cohort that comes from different kinds of studies. Specifically we contrast patient-level sources that provide granular pictures of individual disease course (clinical trial, registries, or electronic health records) with aggregate sources such as published clinical trial results and the TFLs (tables figures and listings). One strategy for combining aggregate with patient-level data sources is to bring each into a common format for a unified analysis. If one wants to maintain the analytic flexibility of patient-level data, then a natural solution is to convert the aggregate data information into a simulated patient-level dataset that recapitulate those aggregate statistics. This is an under-determined inverse problem in that there are many such datasets, and it cannot be well specified without further constraints. FRESH(Fusion of Recent Evidence with Subject Histories) provides a well-defined method for solving this problem, and therefore providing maximal analytic flexibility.

We propose a novel method of understanding disease transformation from a healthy baseline with biomarker-level explainability. By modeling the biomarker covariance matrices of healthy controls and disease states, the perturbation can be individually characterized to accomplish mechanistic explanations of disease trajectories, both at a molecular level and for individual patients. Given a cohort of n patients each measured on p biomarkers, we define the biomarker "Hamiltonian" H = X^T X / n \in R^{p \times p}, where X \in R^{n \times p} is the covariant biomarker matrix. The eigenvectors of H define a set of normal modes of biomarker coordination, and the eigenvalues quantify the energy carried by each mode. In the healthy state, the reference Hamiltonian H_0 governs this structure where disease perturbs H_0 by an additive operator ΔH, thus shifting eigenvalues and rotating eigenvectors in proportion to the severity of pathological disruption. We formalize this framework, derive the spectral change given a disease perturbation, and demonstrate that the projection of a newly diagnosed patient's cumulative biomarker covariance structure onto disease-discriminant eigenmodes constitutes an optimal prognostic statistic for greater precision in disease prognosis. This work serves as a veritable white paper with application across a panoply of disease frameworks from cancer to neurodegenerative disorders.