Counterfactual explanations (CFXs) provide human-understandable justifications for model predictions, enabling actionable recourse and enhancing interpretability. To be reliable, CFXs must avoid regions of high predictive uncertainty, where explanations may be misleading or inapplicable. However, existing methods often neglect uncertainty or lack principled mechanisms for incorporating it with formal guarantees. We propose CONFEX, a novel method for generating uncertainty-aware counterfactual explanations using Conformal Prediction (CP) and Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP). CONFEX explanations are designed to provide local coverage guarantees, addressing the issue that CFX generation violates exchangeability. To do so, we develop a novel localised CP procedure that enjoys an efficient MILP encoding by leveraging an offline tree-based partitioning of the input space. This way, CONFEX generates CFXs with rigorous guarantees on both predictive uncertainty and optimality. We evaluate CONFEX against state-of-the-art methods across diverse benchmarks and metrics, demonstrating that our uncertainty-aware approach yields robust and plausible explanations.

As urbanization accelerates, open spaces are increasingly recognized for their role in enhancing sustainability and well-being, yet they remain underexplored compared to built spaces. This study introduces an AI-driven framework that integrates machine learning models (MLMs) and explainable AI techniques to optimize Sky View Factor (SVF) and visibility, key spatial metrics influencing thermal comfort and perceived safety in urban spaces. Unlike global optimization methods, which are computationally intensive and impractical for localized adjustments, this framework supports incremental design improvements with lower computational costs and greater flexibility. The framework employs SHapley Adaptive Explanations (SHAP) to analyze feature importance and Counterfactual Explanations (CFXs) to propose minimal design changes. Simulations tested five MLMs, identifying XGBoost as the most accurate, with building width, park area, and heights of surrounding buildings as critical for SVF, and distances from southern buildings as key for visibility. Compared to Genetic Algorithms, which required approximately 15/30 minutes across 3/4 generations to converge, the tested CFX approach achieved optimized results in 1 minute with a 5% RMSE error, demonstrating significantly faster performance and suitability for scalable retrofitting strategies. This interpretable and computationally efficient framework advances urban performance optimization, providing data-driven insights and practical retrofitting solutions for enhancing usability and environmental quality across diverse urban contexts.

We study the problem of assessing the robustness of counterfactual explanations for deep learning models. We focus on $\textit{plausible model shifts}$ altering model parameters and propose a novel framework to reason about the robustness property in this setting. To motivate our solution, we begin by showing for the first time that computing the robustness of counterfactuals with respect to plausible model shifts is NP-complete. As this (practically) rules out the existence of scalable algorithms for exactly computing robustness, we propose a novel probabilistic approach which is able to provide tight estimates of robustness with strong guarantees while preserving scalability. Remarkably, and differently from existing solutions targeting plausible model shifts, our approach does not impose requirements on the network to be analyzed, thus enabling robustness analysis on a wider range of architectures. Experiments on four binary classification datasets indicate that our method improves the state of the art in generating robust explanations, outperforming existing methods on a range of metrics.

The use of counterfactual explanations (CFXs) is an increasingly popular explanation strategy for machine learning models. However, recent studies have shown that these explanations may not be robust to changes in the underlying model (e.g., following retraining), which raises questions about their reliability in real-world applications. Existing attempts towards solving this problem are heuristic, and the robustness to model changes of the resulting CFXs is evaluated with only a small number of retrained models, failing to provide exhaustive guarantees. To remedy this, we propose {\Delta}-robustness, the first notion to formally and deterministically assess the robustness (to model changes) of CFXs for neural networks. We introduce an abstraction framework based on interval neural networks to verify the {\Delta}-robustness of CFXs against a possibly infinite set of changes to the model parameters, i.e., weights and biases. We then demonstrate the utility of this approach in two distinct ways. First, we analyse the {\Delta}-robustness of a number of CFX generation methods from the literature and show that they unanimously host significant deficiencies in this regard. Second, we demonstrate how embedding {\Delta}-robustness within existing methods can provide CFXs which are provably robust.