However, the exact formula for front-door adjustment depends on the structure of the graph, which is difficult to learn in practice.

Instrumental variable (IV) methods mitigate bias from unobserved confounding in observational causal inference but rely on the availability of a valid instrument, which can often be difficult or infeasible to identify in practice. In this paper, we propose a representation learning approach that constructs instrumental representations from observed covariates, which enable IV-based estimation even in the absence of an explicit instrument. Our model (ZNet) achieves this through an architecture that mirrors the structural causal model of IVs; it decomposes the ambient feature space into confounding and instrumental components, and is trained by enforcing empirical moment conditions corresponding to the defining properties of valid instruments (i.e., relevance, exclusion restriction, and instrumental unconfoundedness). Importantly, ZNet is compatible with a wide range of downstream two-stage IV estimators of causal effects. Our experiments demonstrate that ZNet can (i) recover ground-truth instruments when they already exist in the ambient feature space and (ii) construct latent instruments in the embedding space when no explicit IVs are available. This suggests that ZNet can be used as a ``plug-and-play'' module for causal inference in general observational settings, regardless of whether the (untestable) assumption of unconfoundedness is satisfied.

Figure 2: Latentz extracted by DSEs.

We consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in linear structural causal models (SCM) with latent confounders when we have access to a single proxy variable.Several methods (such as difference-in-difference (DiD) estimator or negative outcome control) have been proposed in this setting in the literature. However, these approaches require either restrictive assumptions on the data generating model or having access to at least two proxy variables.We propose a method to estimate the causal effect using cross moments between the treatment, the outcome, and the proxy variable. In particular, we show that the causal effect can be identified with simple arithmetic operations on the cross moments if the latent confounder in linear SCM is non-Gaussian.In this setting, DiD estimator provides an unbiased estimate only in the special case where the latent confounder has exactly the same direct causal effects on the outcomes in the pre-treatment and post-treatment phases. This translates to the common trend assumption in DiD, which we effectively relax.Additionally, we provide an impossibility result that shows the causal effect cannot be identified if the observational distribution over the treatment, the outcome, and the proxy is jointly Gaussian. Our experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets showcase the effectivenessof the proposed approach in estimating the causal effect.

Estimating the effect of intervention from observational data while accounting for confounding variables is a key task in causal inference. Oftentimes, the confounders are unobserved, but we have access to large amounts of additional unstructured data (images, text) that contain valuable proxy signal about the missing confounders. This paper argues that leveraging this unstructured data can greatly improve the accuracy of causal effect estimation. Specifically, we introduce deep multi-modal structural equations, a generative model for causal effect estimation in which confounders are latent variables and unstructured data are proxy variables. This model supports multiple multimodal proxies (images, text) as well as missing data. We empirically demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing methods based on propensity scores and corrects for confounding using unstructured inputs on tasks in genomics and healthcare.

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent a gold standard when developing policy guidelines. However, RCTs are often narrow, and lack data on broader populations of interest. Causal effects in these populations are often estimated using observational datasets, which may suffer from unobserved confounding and selection bias. Given a set of observational estimates (e.g., from multiple studies), we propose a meta-algorithm that attempts to reject observational estimates that are biased. We do so using validation effects, causal effects that can be inferred from both RCT and observational data. After rejecting estimators that do not pass this test, we generate conservative confidence intervals on the extrapolated causal effects for subgroups not observed in the RCT. Under the assumption that at least one observational estimator is asymptotically normal and consistent for both the validation and extrapolated effects, we provide guarantees on the coverage probability of the intervals output by our algorithm. To facilitate hypothesis testing in settings where causal effect transportation across datasets is necessary, we give conditions under which a doubly-robust estimator of group average treatment effects is asymptotically normal, even when flexible machine learning methods are used for estimation of nuisance parameters. We illustrate the properties of our approach on semi-synthetic experiments based on the IHDP dataset, and show that it compares favorably to standard meta-analysis techniques.

Estimation of causal effects is critical to a range of scientific disciplines. Existing methods for this task either require interventional data, knowledge about the ground truth causal graph, or rely on assumptions such as unconfoundedness, restricting their applicability in real-world settings. In the domain of tabular machine learning, Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have achieved state-of-the-art predictive performance, having been pre-trained on synthetic data to solve tabular prediction problems via in-context learning. To assess whether this can be transferred to the harder problem of causal effect estimation, we pre-train PFNs on synthetic data drawn from a wide variety of causal structures, including interventions, to predict interventional outcomes given observational data. Through extensive experiments on synthetic case studies, we show that our approach allows for the accurate estimation of causal effects without knowledge of the underlying causal graph. We also perform ablation studies that elucidate Do-PFN's scalability and robustness across datasets with a variety of causal characteristics.

Estimating the effect of an intervention from observational data while accounting for confounding variables is a key task in causal inference.

The field of causal inference has developed a variety of methods to accurately estimate treatment effects in the presence of nuisance. Meanwhile, the field of identifiability theory has developed methods like Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to identify latent sources and mixing weights from data. While these two research communities have developed largely independently, they aim to achieve similar goals: the accurate and sample-efficient estimation of model parameters. In the partially linear regression (PLR) setting, Mackey et al. (2018) recently found that estimation consistency can be improved with non-Gaussian treatment noise. Non-Gaussianity is also a crucial assumption for identifying latent factors in ICA. We provide the first theoretical and empirical insights into this connection, showing that ICA can be used for causal effect estimation in the PLR model. Surprisingly, we find that linear ICA can accurately estimate multiple treatment effects even in the presence of Gaussian confounders or nonlinear nuisance.