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Choosing Online Experiment Designs under Interference in Ads, Recommendations, and Member-Experience Systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Online experiments in ads, recommendation, and member-experience systems are often planned before the dominant interference mechanism is known. A treatment may propagate through budgets, inventory, producer exposure, graph spillovers, or temporal carryover, making the randomization design itself a statistical decision. We formulate this problem as robust design selection over uncertain exposure mechanisms. Given a finite catalog of six implementable designs, the selector compares each design by worst-case planning risk over an ambiguity set. The risk combines exposure bias, assignment-unit variance, minimum detectable effect, contamination or carryover, operational cost, and estimand mismatch. For theoretical justification, the paper develops a geometry-aware guarantee, stating that design bias is bounded by Wasserstein distance to the launch exposure distribution, and this penalty is minimax tight under Lipschitz exposure response. We also prove finite-catalog approximation and a robust selector theorem with excess-risk control, exact recovery under separation, and certified shortlists when the risk surface is flat. Empirically, the same selector gives different recommendations across samples from public datasets. It selects user-randomization on Criteo ads with dimensionless robust risk 1.295, switchbacks on Open Bandit-bts/men with risk 2.105, and cluster-randomization on KuaiRand with risk 2.240. The Open Bandit case stresses known but uneven logging support, with propensities from 0.00006 to 0.594 and a 5.17% IPS effective-sample share. Overall, the paper contributes an interference-aware experiment design framework based on mechanism-robust design decisions, where the output is either a justified design choice or an uncertainty shortlist.


Support-aware offline policy selection for advertising marketplaces

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Logged advertising auctions make offline reserve-price evaluation attractive but risky. Replay tables can identify policies with large apparent yield gains, yet they can also hide weak threshold support, multiple-comparison effects, subgroup harm, and bidder-response uncertainty. Existing replay and off-policy evaluation methods estimate or rank policy values, but they do not directly answer the operational question of whether the available evidence is strong enough to justify validation. This paper develops a support-aware offline decision framework for reserve-policy selection. Rather than outputting a single point-estimate winner, the framework converts logged evidence into a conservative decision object consisting of certified policies, statistically dominated alternatives, and unresolved candidates requiring further validation. The main theoretical result gives a unified finite-catalog guarantee showing that, under simultaneous uncertainty control and conservative support gates, the framework preserves the best gate-passing policy while eliminating only policies with certified regret. Supporting results characterize support-localized replay generalization, establish information-theoretic threshold-resolution limits, and quantify when heterogeneous bidder response can overturn localized replay rankings. Experiments on iPinYou real-time-bidding logs show that the leading reserve rule achieves a 47.66% replay lift in season two, a 40.71% simultaneous lower-bound lift, and a 43.87% frozen out-of-time replay lift in season three. The framework reduces a 19-policy catalog to a two-policy validation shortlist while certifying non-harm across 44 advertiser, exchange, and region segments. The results support the central claim that offline reserve-policy evaluation should produce certified validation decisions rather than point-estimate rankings alone.


The PS Plus Games Catalog is getting Space Marine 2 and Persona 5 Royal in March

Engadget

Subscribers will also be able to play EA Sports Madden NFL 26 and Astroneer. Sony has announced its latest additions to the PlayStation Plus Game Catalog. While they might not top last month's introduction of, Extra and Premium subscribers are still getting access to some notable games. In March, the new additions include (PS5) one of Engadget's picks for the Best Games of 2024, and (PS5 and PS4). The PS4 version of -, the complete version of one of Atlus' most popular RPGs, will also be available alongside a collection of other fun additions.



The best subscription gifts to send to your loved ones this Christmas: Disney bundle, MasterClass, Field Notes and more

Engadget

From Headspace to Apple One, these gift ideas will come in handy if you've procrastinated with your shopping. There are way too many online services and subscriptions to keep track of these days, but the flip side is there's a tool for just about everything. Time is just about up to get a physical gift shipped in time for the holidays, so below we've pulled together some of our favorite digital gifts and subscriptions, including time-tested video, music and gaming services as well as tools to clear your mental space and learn new skills. There are also a few subscriptions that provide ongoing, IRL deliveries, if you think your giftee will appreciate the nostalgic charm of a physical object. The big streaming video platforms just keep getting more expensive. As such, Disney's latest content bundle feels like a breath of fresh air.


AI Agent for Source Finding by SoFiA-2 for SKA-SDC2

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Source extraction is crucial in analyzing data from next-generation, large-scale sky surveys in radio bands, such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA). Several source extraction programs, including SoFiA and Aegean, have been developed to address this challenge. However, finding optimal parameter configurations when applying these programs to real observations is non-trivial. For example, the outcomes of SoFiA intensely depend on several key parameters across its preconditioning, source-finding, and reliability-filtering modules. To address this issue, we propose a framework to automatically optimize these parameters using an AI agent based on a state-of-the-art reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm, i.e., Soft Actor-Critic (SAC). The SKA Science Data Challenge 2 (SDC2) dataset is utilized to assess the feasibility and reliability of this framework. The AI agent interacts with the environment by adjusting parameters based on the feedback from the SDC2 score defined by the SDC2 Team, progressively learning to select parameter sets that yield improved performance. After sufficient training, the AI agent can automatically identify an optimal parameter configuration that outperform the benchmark set by Team SoFiA within only 100 evaluation steps and with reduced time consumption. Our approach could address similar problems requiring complex parameter tuning, beyond radio band surveys and source extraction. Yet, high-quality training sets containing representative observations and catalogs of ground truth are essential.


LLM-Empowered Event-Chain Driven Code Generation for ADAS in SDV systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents an event-chain-driven, LLM-empowered workflow for generating validated, automotive code from natural-language requirements. A Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) layer retrieves relevant signals from large and evolving Vehicle Signal Specification (VSS) catalogs as code generation prompt context, reducing hallucinations and ensuring architectural correctness. Retrieved signals are mapped and validated before being transformed into event chains that encode causal and timing constraints. These event chains guide and constrain LLM-based code synthesis, ensuring behavioral consistency and real-time feasibility. Based on our initial findings from the emergency braking case study, with the proposed approach, we managed to achieve valid signal usage and consistent code generation without LLM retraining.


Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based $w$CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning. I. Analysis design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. This work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological $w$CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving $2-3\times$ higher figures of merit in the $ฮฉ_m - S_8$ plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.


LookSync: Large-Scale Visual Product Search System for AI-Generated Fashion Looks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generative AI is reshaping fashion by enabling virtual looks and avatars making it essential to find real products that best match AI-generated styles. We propose an end-to-end product search system that has been deployed in a real-world, internet scale which ensures that AI-generated looks presented to users are matched with the most visually and semantically similar products from the indexed vector space. The search pipeline is composed of four key components: query generation, vectorization, candidate retrieval, and reranking based on AI-generated looks. Recommendation quality is evaluated using human-judged accuracy scores. The system currently serves more than 350,000 AI Looks in production per day, covering diverse product categories across global markets of over 12 million products. In our experiments, we observed that across multiple annotators and categories, CLIP outperformed alternative models by a small relative margin of 3--7\% in mean opinion scores. These improvements, though modest in absolute numbers, resulted in noticeably better user perception matches, establishing CLIP as the most reliable backbone for production deployment.


Your Town's Local History Books Have a Very Secret and Powerful New Buyer

Slate

Arcadia Publishing built its empire on small-town storytellers. Now it wants to sell their words to an A.I. company no one will name. Enter your email to receive alerts for this author. You can manage your newsletter subscriptions at any time. You're already subscribed to the aa_Nitish_Pahwa newsletter. You can manage your newsletter subscriptions at any time.