bidding zone
Leveraging Asynchronous Cross-border Market Data for Improved Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting in European Markets
Mascarenhas, Maria Margarida, De Blauwe, Jilles, Amelin, Mikael, Kazmi, Hussain
Accurate short-term electricity price forecasting is crucial for strategically scheduling demand and generation bids in day-ahead markets. While data-driven techniques have shown considerable prowess in achieving high forecast accuracy in recent years, they rely heavily on the quality of input covariates. In this paper, we investigate whether asynchronously published prices as a result of differing gate closure times (GCTs) in some bidding zones can improve forecasting accuracy in other markets with later GCTs. Using a state-of-the-art ensemble of models, we show significant improvements of 22% and 9% in forecast accuracy in the Belgian (BE) and Swedish bidding zones (SE3) respectively, when including price data from interconnected markets with earlier GCT (Germany-Luxembourg, Austria, and Switzerland). This improvement holds for both general as well as extreme market conditions. Our analysis also yields further important insights: frequent model recalibration is necessary for maximum accuracy but comes at substantial additional computational costs, and using data from more markets does not always lead to better performance - a fact we delve deeper into with interpretability analysis of the forecast models. Overall, these findings provide valuable guidance for market participants and decision-makers aiming to optimize bidding strategies within increasingly interconnected and volatile European energy markets.
A Machine Learning Model for Long-Term Power Generation Forecasting at Bidding Zone Level
Moschella, Michela, Tucci, Mauro, Crisostomi, Emanuele, Betti, Alessandro
--The increasing penetration level of energy generation from renewable sources is demanding for more accurate and reliable forecasting tools to support classic power grid operations (e.g., unit commitment, electricity market clearing or maintenance planning). For this purpose, many physical models have been employed, and more recently many statistical or machine learning algorithms, and data-driven methods in general, are becoming subject of intense research. While generally the power research community focuses on power forecasting at the level of single plants, in a short future horizon of time, in this time we are interested in aggregated macro-area power generation (i.e., in a territory of size greater than 100000 km Real data are used to validate the proposed forecasting methodology on a test set of several months. A. Motivations As the penetration level of Renewable Energy (RE) sources is growing worldwide to meet ever tightening sustainability goals [1], the intermittent and uncertain nature of RE is posing increasing challenges to efficiently manage a power grid, eventually endangering its own stability. In this context, the availability of accurate forecasts of power generation from RE may mitigate the impact of the increasing penetration level and improve the operation of power systems [2].