First provide a summary of the paper, and then address the following criteria: Quality, clarity, originality and significance. Summary: This very strong paper proposes a rational model for algorithm selection based on problem features and Bayesian regression. The model is shown to be effective computationally and to better predict human performance than comparable models. This paper is the epitome of a strong NIPS paper. The paper is clearly written and addresses an interesting problem. There is both a nice computational result about the algorithm and a cognitive model that is tested with a brief experiment.

The L-1 regression problem can be interpreted as maximum likelihood with a Laplacian error model. By taking negative log on Eq. 1, we have, ln P (t

In the highly competitive environment of the banking industry, it is essential to precisely forecast the behavior of customers in order to maximize the effectiveness of marketing initiatives and improve financial consequences. The purpose of this research is to examine the efficacy of logit and probit models in predicting term deposit subscriptions using a Portuguese bank's direct marketing data. There are several demographic, economic, and behavioral characteristics in the dataset that affect the probability of subscribing. To increase model performance and provide an unbiased evaluation, the target variable was balanced, considering the inherent imbalance in the dataset. The two model's prediction abilities were evaluated using Bayesian techniques and Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). The logit model performed better than the probit model in handling this classification problem. The results highlight the relevance of model selection when dealing with complicated decision-making processes in the financial services industry and imbalanced datasets. Findings from this study shed light on how banks can optimize their decision-making processes, improve their client segmentation, and boost their marketing campaigns by utilizing machine learning models.

The paper considers an approach of using Google Search API and GPT-4o model for qualitative and quantitative analyses of news through retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). This approach was applied to analyze news about the 2024 US presidential election process. Different news sources for different time periods have been analyzed. Quantitative scores generated by GPT model have been analyzed using Bayesian regression to derive trend lines. The distributions found for the regression parameters allow for the analysis of uncertainty in the election process. The obtained results demonstrate that using the GPT models for news analysis, one can get informative analytics and provide key insights that can be applied in further analyses of election processes.

We propose a new parameter-adaptive uncertainty-penalized Bayesian information criterion (UBIC) to prioritize the parsimonious partial differential equation (PDE) that sufficiently governs noisy spatial-temporal observed data with few reliable terms. Since the naive use of the BIC for model selection has been known to yield an undesirable overfitted PDE, the UBIC penalizes the found PDE not only by its complexity but also the quantified uncertainty, derived from the model supports' coefficient of variation in a probabilistic view. We also introduce physics-informed neural network learning as a simulation-based approach to further validate the selected PDE flexibly against the other discovered PDE. Numerical results affirm the successful application of the UBIC in identifying the true governing PDE. Additionally, we reveal an interesting effect of denoising the observed data on improving the trade-off between the BIC score and model complexity. Code is available at https://github.com/Pongpisit-Thanasutives/UBIC.

In our previous work, we introduced the rule-based Bayesian Regression, a methodology that leverages two concepts: (i) Bayesian inference, for the general framework and uncertainty quantification and (ii) rule-based systems for the incorporation of expert knowledge and intuition. The resulting method creates a penalty equivalent to a common Bayesian prior, but it also includes information that typically would not be available within a standard Bayesian context. In this work, we extend the aforementioned methodology with grammatical evolution, a symbolic genetic programming technique that we utilise for automating the rules' derivation. Our motivation is that grammatical evolution can potentially detect patterns from the data with valuable information, equivalent to that of expert knowledge. We illustrate the use of the rule-based Evolutionary Bayesian learning technique by applying it to synthetic as well as real data, and examine the results in terms of point predictions and associated uncertainty.

Recent years have seen an increased interest in using mean-field density based modelling and control strategy for deploying robotic swarms. In this paper, we study how to dynamically deploy the robots subject to their physical constraints to efficiently measure and reconstruct certain unknown spatial field (e.g. the air pollution index over a city). Specifically, the evolution of the robots' density is modelled by mean-field partial differential equations (PDEs) which are uniquely determined by the robots' individual dynamics. Bayesian regression models are used to obtain predictions and return a variance function that represents the confidence of the prediction. We formulate a PDE constrained optimization problem based on this variance function to dynamically generate a reference density signal which guides the robots to uncertain areas to collect new data, and design mean-field feedback-based control laws such that the robots' density converges to this reference signal. We also show that the proposed feedback law is robust to density estimation errors in the sense of input-to-state stability. Simulations are included to verify the effectiveness of the algorithms.

Bayesian regression remains a simple but effective tool based on Bayesian inference techniques. For large-scale applications, with complicated posterior distributions, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are applied. To improve the well-known computational burden of Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach for Bayesian regression, we developed a multilevel Gibbs sampler for Bayesian regression of linear mixed models. The level hierarchy of data matrices is created by clustering the features and/or samples of data matrices. Additionally, the use of correlated samples is investigated for variance reduction to improve the convergence of the Markov Chain. Testing on a diverse set of data sets, speed-up is achieved for almost all of them without significant loss in predictive performance.

Wikipedia: "In statistics, Bayesian linear regression is an approach to linear regression in which the statistical analysis is undertaken within the context of Bayesian inference. When the regression model has errors that have a normal distribution, and if a particular form of the prior distribution is assumed, explicit results are available for the posterior probability distributions of the model's parameters." The most common interpretation of Bayes' formula in finance is the diachronic interpretation. This mainly states that over time we learn new information about certain variables or parameters of interest, like the mean return of a time series. Here, H stands for an event, the hypothesis, and D represents the data an experiment or the real world might present.

We introduce a novel rule-based approach for handling regression problems. The new methodology carries elements from two frameworks: (i) it provides information about the uncertainty of the parameters of interest using Bayesian inference, and (ii) it allows the incorporation of expert knowledge through rule-based systems. The blending of those two different frameworks can be particularly beneficial for various domains (e.g. engineering), where, even though the significance of uncertainty quantification motivates a Bayesian approach, there is no simple way to incorporate researcher intuition into the model. We validate our models by applying them to synthetic applications: a simple linear regression problem and two more complex structures based on partial differential equations. Finally, we review the advantages of our methodology, which include the simplicity of the implementation, the uncertainty reduction due to the added information and, in some occasions, the derivation of better point predictions, and we address limitations, mainly from the computational complexity perspective, such as the difficulty in choosing an appropriate algorithm and the added computational burden.