Graph-based recommender systems leverage neighborhood aggregation to generate node representations, which is highly sensitive to popularity bias, resulting in an echo effect during information propagation. Existing graph-based debiasing solutions refine the aggregation process with attempts such as edge reconstruction or weight adjustment. However, these methods remain inadequate in fully alleviating popularity bias. Specifically, this is because 1) they provide no insights into graph aggregation rationality, thus lacking an optimality guarantee; 2) they fail to well balance the training and debiasing process, which undermines the effectiveness. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to mitigate popularity bias through rational modeling of the graph aggregation process. We reveal that graph aggregation is a special form of backdoor adjustment in causal inference, where the aggregation weight corresponds to the historical interaction likelihood distribution. Based on this insight, we devise an encoder-decoder architecture, namely Causality-aware Graph Aggregation Weight Estimator for Debiasing (CAGED), to approximate the unbiased aggregation weight by optimizing the evidence lower bound of the interaction likelihood. In order to enhance the debiasing effectiveness during early training stages, we further design a momentum update strategy that incrementally refines the aggregation weight matrix. Extensive experiments on three datasets demonstrate that CAGED outperforms existing graph-based debiasing methods. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/QueYork/CAGED.

We introduce a Partial Functional Dynamic Backdoor Diffusion-based Causal Model (PFD-BDCM), specifically designed for causal inference in the presence of unmeasured confounders with spatial heterogeneity and temporal dependency. The proposed PFD-BDCM framework addresses the restrictions of the existing approaches by uniquely integrating models for complex spatio-temporal dynamics with the analysis of multi-resolution variables. Specifically, the framework systematically mitigates confounding bias by integrating valid backdoor adjustment sets into a diffusion-based sampling mechanism. Moreover, it accounts for the intricate dynamics of unmeasured confounders through the deployment of region-specific structural equations and conditional autoregressive processes, and accommodates variables observed at heterogeneous resolutions via basis expansions for functional data. Our theoretical analysis establishes error bounds for counterfactual estimates of PFD-BDCM, formally linking reconstruction accuracy to counterfactual fidelity under monotonicity assumptions of structural equation and invertibility assumptions of encoding function. Empirical evaluations on synthetic datasets and real-world air pollution data demonstrate PFD-BDCM's superiority over existing methods.

External reasoning systems combine language models with process reward models (PRMs) to select high-quality reasoning paths for complex tasks such as mathematical problem solving. However, these systems are prone to reward hacking, where high-scoring but logically incorrect paths are assigned high scores by the PRMs, leading to incorrect answers. From a causal inference perspective, we attribute this phenomenon primarily to the presence of confounding semantic features. To address it, we propose Causal Reward Adjustment (CRA), a method that mitigates reward hacking by estimating the true reward of a reasoning path. CRA trains sparse autoencoders on the PRM's internal activations to recover interpretable features, then corrects confounding by using backdoor adjustment. Experiments on math solving datasets demonstrate that CRA mitigates reward hacking and improves final accuracy, without modifying the policy model or retraining PRM.

Hidden confounders that influence both states and actions can bias policy learning in reinforcement learning (RL), leading to suboptimal or non-generalizable behavior. Most RL algorithms ignore this issue, learning policies from observational trajectories based solely on statistical associations rather than causal effects. We propose DoSAC (Do-Calculus Soft Actor-Critic with Backdoor Adjustment), a principled extension of the SAC algorithm that corrects for hidden confounding via causal intervention estimation. DoSAC estimates the interventional policy $π(a | \mathrm{do}(s))$ using the backdoor criterion, without requiring access to true confounders or causal labels. To achieve this, we introduce a learnable Backdoor Reconstructor that infers pseudo-past variables (previous state and action) from the current state to enable backdoor adjustment from observational data. This module is integrated into a soft actor-critic framework to compute both the interventional policy and its entropy. Empirical results on continuous control benchmarks show that DoSAC outperforms baselines under confounded settings, with improved robustness, generalization, and policy reliability.

Accurate trajectory prediction has long been a major challenge for autonomous driving (AD). Traditional data-driven models predominantly rely on statistical correlations, often overlooking the causal relationships that govern traffic behavior. In this paper, we introduce a novel trajectory prediction framework that leverages causal inference to enhance predictive robustness, generalization, and accuracy. By decomposing the environment into spatial and temporal components, our approach identifies and mitigates spurious correlations, uncovering genuine causal relationships. We also employ a progressive fusion strategy to integrate multimodal information, simulating human-like reasoning processes and enabling real-time inference. Evaluations on five real-world datasets--ApolloScape, nuScenes, NGSIM, HighD, and MoCAD--demonstrate our model's superiority over existing state-of-the-art (SOT A) methods, with improvements in key metrics such as RMSE and FDE. Our findings highlight the potential of causal reasoning to transform trajectory prediction, paving the way for robust AD systems.

The causal bandit problem aims to sequentially learn the intervention that maximizes the expectation of a reward variable within a system governed by a causal graph. Most existing approaches assume prior knowledge of the graph structure, or impose unrealistically restrictive conditions on the graph. In this paper, we assume a Gaussian linear directed acyclic graph (DAG) over arms and the reward variable, and study the causal bandit problem when the graph structure is unknown. We identify backdoor adjustment sets for each arm using sequentially generated experimental and observational data during the decision process, which allows us to estimate causal effects and construct upper confidence bounds. By integrating estimates from both data sources, we develop a novel bandit algorithm, based on modified upper confidence bounds, to sequentially determine the optimal intervention. We establish both case-dependent and case-independent upper bounds on the cumulative regret for our algorithm, which improve upon the bounds of the standard multi-armed bandit algorithms. Our empirical study demonstrates its advantage over existing methods with respect to cumulative regret and computation time.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are increasingly being applied in the medical field, particularly in medical imaging. However, developing MLLMs for ECG signals, which are crucial in clinical settings, has been a significant challenge beyond medical imaging. Previous studies have attempted to address this by converting ECGs into several text tags using an external classifier in a training-free manner. However, this approach significantly compresses the information in ECGs and underutilizes the reasoning capabilities of LLMs. In this work, we directly feed the embeddings of ECGs into the LLM through a projection layer, retaining more information about ECGs and better leveraging the reasoning abilities of LLMs. Our method can also effectively handle a common situation in clinical practice where it is necessary to compare two ECGs taken at different times. Recent studies found that MLLMs may rely solely on text input to provide answers, ignoring inputs from other modalities. We analyzed this phenomenon from a causal perspective in the context of ECG MLLMs and discovered that the confounder, severity of illness, introduces a spurious correlation between the question and answer, leading the model to rely on this spurious correlation and ignore the ECG input. Such models do not comprehend the ECG input and perform poorly in adversarial tests where different expressions of the same question are used in the training and testing sets. We designed a de-biased pre-training method to eliminate the confounder's effect according to the theory of backdoor adjustment. Our model performed well on the ECG-QA task under adversarial testing and demonstrated zero-shot capabilities. An interesting random ECG test further validated that our model effectively understands and utilizes the input ECG signal.

Kernel embeddings have emerged as a powerful tool for representing probability measures in a variety of statistical inference problems. By mapping probability measures into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), kernel embeddings enable flexible representations of complex relationships between variables. They serve as a mechanism for efficiently transferring the representation of a distribution downstream to other tasks, such as hypothesis testing or causal effect estimation. In the context of causal inference, the main challenges include identifying causal associations and estimating the average treatment effect from observational data, where confounding variables may obscure direct cause-and-effect relationships. Kernel embeddings provide a robust nonparametric framework for addressing these challenges. They allow for the representations of distributions of observational data and their seamless transformation into representations of interventional distributions to estimate relevant causal quantities.

Prior image-text matching methods have shown remarkable performance on many benchmark datasets, but most of them overlook the bias in the dataset, which exists in intra-modal and inter-modal, and tend to learn the spurious correlations that extremely degrade the generalization ability of the model. Furthermore, these methods often incorporate biased external knowledge from large-scale datasets as prior knowledge into image-text matching model, which is inevitable to force model further learn biased associations. To address above limitations, this paper firstly utilizes Structural Causal Models (SCMs) to illustrate how intra- and inter-modal confounders damage the image-text matching. Then, we employ backdoor adjustment to propose an innovative Deconfounded Causal Inference Network (DCIN) for image-text matching task. DCIN (1) decomposes the intra- and inter-modal confounders and incorporates them into the encoding stage of visual and textual features, effectively eliminating the spurious correlations during image-text matching, and (2) uses causal inference to mitigate biases of external knowledge. Consequently, the model can learn causality instead of spurious correlations caused by dataset bias. Extensive experiments on two well-known benchmark datasets, i.e., Flickr30K and MSCOCO, demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method.

Domain adaption has been widely adapted for cross-domain sentiment analysis to transfer knowledge from the source domain to the target domain. Whereas, most methods are proposed under the assumption that the target (test) domain is known, making them fail to generalize well on unknown test data that is not always available in practice. In this paper, we focus on the problem of domain generalization for cross-domain sentiment analysis. Specifically, we propose a backdoor adjustment-based causal model to disentangle the domain-specific and domain-invariant representations that play essential roles in tackling domain shift. First, we rethink the cross-domain sentiment analysis task in a causal view to model the causal-and-effect relationships among different variables. Then, to learn an invariant feature representation, we remove the effect of domain confounders (e.g., domain knowledge) using the backdoor adjustment. A series of experiments over many homologous and diverse datasets show the great performance and robustness of our model by comparing it with the state-of-the-art domain generalization baselines.