Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) integrates physics and data into the learning process, offering improved generalization compared with purely data-driven models. Despite its potential, applications of SciML in prognostics remain limited, partly due to the complexity of incorporating partial differential equations (PDEs) for ageing physics and the scarcity of robust uncertainty quantification methods. This work introduces a Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Network (B-PINN) framework for probabilistic prognostics estimation. By embedding Bayesian Neural Networks into the PINN architecture, the proposed approach produces principled, uncertainty-aware predictions. The method is applied to a transformer ageing case study, where insulation degradation is primarily driven by thermal stress. The heat diffusion PDE is used as the physical residual, and different prior distributions are investigated to examine their impact on predictive posterior distributions and their ability to encode a priori physical knowledge. The framework is validated against a finite element model developed and tested with real measurements from a solar power plant. Results, benchmarked against a dropout-PINN baseline, show that the proposed B-PINN delivers more reliable prognostic predictions by accurately quantifying predictive uncertainty. This capability is crucial for supporting robust and informed maintenance decision-making in critical power assets.

Bayesian physics-informed neural networks (B-PINNs) merge data with governing equations to solve differential equations under uncertainty. However, interpreting uncertainty and overconfidence in B-PINNs requires care due to the poorly understood effects the physical constraints have on the network; overconfidence could reflect warranted precision, enforced by the constraints, rather than miscalibration. Motivated by the need to further clarify how individual physical constraints shape these networks, we introduce a scalable, matrix-free Laplace framework that decomposes the posterior Hessian into contributions from each constraint and provides metrics to quantify their relative influence on the loss landscape. Applied to the Van der Pol equation, our method tracks how constraints sculpt the network's geometry and shows, directly through the Hessian, how changing a single loss weight non-trivially redistributes curvature and effective dominance across the others.

We present a novel class of Physics-Informed Neural Networks that is formulated based on the principles of Evidential Deep Learning, where the model incorporates uncertainty quantification by learning parameters of a higher-order distribution. The dependent and trainable variables of the PDE residual loss and data-fitting loss terms are recast as functions of the hyperparameters of an evidential prior distribution. Our model is equipped with an information-theoretic regularizer that contains the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two inverse-gamma distributions characterizing predictive uncertainty. Relative to Bayesian-Physics-Informed-Neural-Networks, our framework appeared to exhibit higher sensitivity to data noise, preserve boundary conditions more faithfully and yield empirical coverage probabilities closer to nominal ones. Toward examining its relevance for data mining in scientific discoveries, we demonstrate how to apply our model to inverse problems involving 1D and 2D nonlinear differential equations.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are at the forefront of scientific machine learning, making possible the creation of machine intelligence that is cognizant of physical laws and able to accurately simulate them. In this paper, the potential of discovering PINNs that generalize over an entire family of physics tasks is studied, for the first time, through a biological lens of the Baldwin effect. Drawing inspiration from the neurodevelopment of precocial species that have evolved to learn, predict and react quickly to their environment, we envision PINNs that are pre-wired with connection strengths inducing strong biases towards efficient learning of physics. To this end, evolutionary selection pressure (guided by proficiency over a family of tasks) is coupled with lifetime learning (to specialize on a smaller subset of those tasks) to produce PINNs that demonstrate fast and physics-compliant prediction capabilities across a range of empirically challenging problem instances. The Baldwinian approach achieves an order of magnitude improvement in prediction accuracy at a fraction of the computation cost compared to state-of-the-art results with PINNs meta-learned by gradient descent. This paper marks a leap forward in the meta-learning of PINNs as generalizable physics solvers.

Data-driven discovery of governing equations in computational science has emerged as a new paradigm for obtaining accurate physical models and as a possible alternative to theoretical derivations. The recently developed physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have also been employed to learn governing equations given data across diverse scientific disciplines. Despite the effectiveness of PINNs for discovering governing equations, the physical models encoded in PINNs may be misspecified in complex systems as some of the physical processes may not be fully understood, leading to the poor accuracy of PINN predictions. In this work, we present a general approach to correct the misspecified physical models in PINNs for discovering governing equations, given some sparse and/or noisy data. Specifically, we first encode the assumed physical models, which may be misspecified, then employ other deep neural networks (DNNs) to model the discrepancy between the imperfect models and the observational data. Due to the expressivity of DNNs, the proposed method is capable of reducing the computational errors caused by the model misspecification and thus enables the applications of PINNs in complex systems where the physical processes are not exactly known. Furthermore, we utilize the Bayesian PINNs (B-PINNs) and/or ensemble PINNs to quantify uncertainties arising from noisy and/or gappy data in the discovered governing equations. A series of numerical examples including non-Newtonian channel and cavity flows demonstrate that the added DNNs are capable of correcting the model misspecification in PINNs and thus reduce the discrepancy between the physical models and the observational data. We envision that the proposed approach will extend the applications of PINNs for discovering governing equations in problems where the physico-chemical or biological processes are not well understood.

Globally, there are many polluted groundwater sites that need an active remediation plan for the restoration of local ecosystem and environment. Engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) have proven to be an effective reactive agent for the in-situ degradation of pollutants in groundwater. While the performance of these ENPs has been highly promising on the laboratory scale, their application in real field case conditions is still limited. The complex transport and retention mechanisms of ENPs hinder the development of an efficient remediation strategy. Therefore, a predictive tool to comprehend the transport and retention behavior of ENPs is highly required. The existing tools in the literature are dominated with numerical simulators, which have limited flexibility and accuracy in the presence of sparse datasets and the aquifer heterogeneity. This work uses a Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Network (B-PINN) framework to model the nano-particles mobility within an aquifer. The result from the forward model demonstrates the effective capability of B-PINN in accurately predicting the ENPs mobility and quantifying the uncertainty. The inverse model output is then used to predict the governing parameters for the ENPs mobility in a small-scale aquifer. The research demonstrates the capability of the tool to provide predictive insights for developing an efficient groundwater remediation strategy.

Bayesian Physics Informed Neural Networks (B-PINNs) have gained significant attention for inferring physical parameters and learning the forward solutions for problems based on partial differential equations. However, the overparameterized nature of neural networks poses a computational challenge for high-dimensional posterior inference. Existing inference approaches, such as particle-based or variance inference methods, are either computationally expensive for highdimensional posterior inference or provide unsatisfactory uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we present a new efficient inference algorithm for B-PINNs that uses Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) for high-dimensional inference tasks. By reframing the setup of B-PINNs as a traditional Bayesian inverse problem, we can take advantage of EKI's key features: (1) gradient-free, (2) computational complexity scales linearly with the dimension of the parameter spaces, and (3) rapid convergence with typically O(100) iterations. We demonstrate the applicability and performance of the proposed method through various types of numerical examples. We find that our proposed method can achieve inference results with informative uncertainty estimates comparable to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC)-based B-PINNs with a much reduced computational cost. These findings suggest that our proposed approach has great potential for uncertainty quantification in physics-informed machine learning for practical applications.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) are gaining popularity as a method for solving differential equations. While being more feasible in some contexts than the classical numerical techniques, PINNs still lack credibility. A remedy for that can be found in Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) which is just beginning to emerge in the context of PINNs. Assessing how well the trained PINN complies with imposed differential equation is the key to tackling uncertainty, yet there is lack of comprehensive methodology for this task. We propose a framework for UQ in Bayesian PINNs (B-PINNs) that incorporates the discrepancy between the B-PINN solution and the unknown true solution. We exploit recent results on error bounds for PINNs on linear dynamical systems and demonstrate the predictive uncertainty on a class of linear ODEs.