Fox News Flash top sports headlines are here. Check out what's clicking on Foxnews.com. At long last, an iPhone finally went off while someone was broadcasting a Tampa Bay Rays game. Because the Rays have a guy named Jose Siri on their team. And yes, his last name is pronounced just like the iPhone's "Siri."

The data I used can be found on Kaggle. The overall dataset contains eight comma-separated value(CSV) files, containing data from the MLB seasons 2015–2018. However, I focused on two of the files, pitches and at-bats. The pitches CSV file contained 40 data columns, and the at-bats had 11. Both of them had data values that I would need, so I decided to merge the files.

The field of quantitative analytics has transformed the world of sports over the last decade. To date, these analytic approaches are statistical at their core, characterizing what is and what was, while using this information to drive decisions about what to do in the future. However, as we often view team sports, such as soccer, hockey, and baseball, as pairwise win-lose encounters, it seems natural to model these as zero-sum games. We propose such a model for one important class of sports encounters: a baseball at-bat, which is a matchup between a pitcher and a batter. Specifically, we propose a novel model of this encounter as a zero-sum stochastic game, in which the goal of the batter is to get on base, an outcome the pitcher aims to prevent. The value of this game is the on-base percentage (i.e., the probability that the batter gets on base). In principle, this stochastic game can be solved using classical approaches. The main technical challenges lie in predicting the distribution of pitch locations as a function of pitcher intention, predicting the distribution of outcomes if the batter decides to swing at a pitch, and characterizing the level of patience of a particular batter. We address these challenges by proposing novel pitcher and batter representations as well as a novel deep neural network architecture for outcome prediction. Our experiments using Kaggle data from the 2015 to 2018 Major League Baseball seasons demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Fox News Flash top headlines are here. Check out what's clicking on Foxnews.com. Jose Siri and Chas McCormick hit back-to-back home runs in the eighth inning, rallying the AL West-leading Houston Astros over the Arizona Diamondbacks 7-6 on Sunday. Carlos Correa also homered as the Astros held their comfortable division lead over Oakland. Houston won for the fourth time in five games and cut Tampa Bay's lead for the best record in the AL to 3 ½ games.

In this series we've been using the empirical Bayes method to estimate batting averages of baseball players. Empirical Bayes is useful here because when we don't have a lot of information about a batter, they're "shrunken" towards the average across all players, as a natural consequence of the beta prior. When players are better, they are given more chances to bat! (Hat tip to Hadley Wickham to pointing this complication out to me). That means there's a relationship between the number of at-bats (AB) and the true batting average. For reasons I explain below, this makes our estimates systematically inaccurate.