If we know beforehand that the problem is periodic, we can easily solve it, e.g., in Fourier space, orafteranappropriate transformation.

This study develops a forecasting framework t hat leverages the Construction Specifications Institute (CSI) MasterFormat as the target data structure, enabling predictions at the six - digit section level and supporting detailed cost projections across a wide spectrum of building materials. To enhance p redictive accuracy, the framework integrates explanatory variables such as raw material prices, commodity indexes, and macroeconomic indicators. Four time - series models, Long Short - Term Memory (LSTM), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Vecto r Error Correction Model (VECM), and Chronos - Bolt, were evaluated under both baseline configurations (using CSI data only) and extended versions with explanatory variables. Results demonstrate that incorporating explanatory variables significantly improves predictive performance across all models. Among the tested approaches, the LSTM model consistently ach ieved the highest accuracy, with RMSE values as low as 1.390 and MAPE values of 0.957, representing improvements of up to 59 % over traditional statistical time - series model, ARIMA. Validation across multiple CSI divisions confirmed the framework's scalability, while Division 06 (Wood, Plastics, and Composites) is presented in detail as a demonstration case. This research offers a robust methodology that enables owners and contractors to improve budgeting practices and achieve more reliable cost estimation at the Definitive level. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Motivation The construction industry continues to demonstrate steady long - term growth, with global activity projected to reach US$9.8 trillion by 2026 [1] . Major upcoming programs in the United States, such as the Los Angeles 2028 Olympics and TSMC's fabrication facility in Arizona [2] [3], highlight the scale of high - value projects in the near future. However, volatility in construction material prices has emerged as a critical challenge, creating significant uncertainty for contractors in project planning, budgeting, and cost management. Price fluctuations, driven by raw material costs, macroeconomic conditions such as inflation and interest rates, and supply - demand imbalances, have amplified risks of cost overruns and delays [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] . Traditional econometric methods (i.e.,multiple regression analysis) and modern econometric methods (i.e., univariate, and multivariate time series methods) have faced limitations in effectively capturing the high - frequency volatility observed in constructi on material prices [9] . These models often struggle to handle the complexity of input data and exhibit limited predictive accuracy in real - world applications.

Accurate electricity forecasting is crucial for grid stability and energy planning, especially in Benghazi, Libya, where frequent load shedding, generation deficits, and infrastructure limitations persist. This study proposes a data-driven approach to forecast electricity load, generation, and deficits for 2025 using historical data from 2019 (a year marked by instability) and 2023 (a more stable year). Multiple time series models were applied, including ARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, dynamic regression ARIMA, exponential smoothing, extreme gradient boosting, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. The dataset was enhanced through missing value imputation, outlier smoothing, and log transformation. Performance was assessed using mean squared error, root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error. LSTM outperformed all other models, showing strong capabilities in modeling non-stationary and seasonal patterns. A key contribution of this work is an optimized LSTM framework that integrates exogenous factors such as temperature and humidity, offering robust performance in forecasting multiple electricity indicators. These results provide practical insights for policymakers and grid operators to enable proactive load management and resource planning in data-scarce, volatile regions.

This work evaluates the effectiveness of spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for multi-store retail sales forecasting and compares their performance against ARIMA, LSTM, and XGBoost baselines. Using weekly sales data from 45 Walmart stores, we construct a relational forecasting framework that models inter-store dependencies through a learned adaptive graph. The proposed STGNN predicts log-differenced sales and reconstructs final values through a residual path, enabling stable training and improved generalisation. Experiments show that STGNN achieves the lowest overall forecasting error, outperforming all baselines in Normalised Total Absolute Error, P90 MAPE, and variance of MAPE across stores. Analysis of the learned adjacency matrix reveals meaningful functional store clusters and high-influence nodes that emerge without geographic metadata. These results demonstrate that relational structure significantly improves forecast quality in interconnected retail environments and establishes STGNNs as a robust modelling choice for multi-store demand prediction.

Grasslands, constituting the world's second-largest terrestrial carbon sink, play a crucial role in biodiversity and the regulation of the carbon cycle. Currently, the Irish dairy sector, a significant economic contributor, grapples with challenges related to profitability and sustainability. Presently, grass growth forecasting relies on impractical mechanistic models. In response, we propose deep learning models tailored for univariate datasets, presenting cost-effective alternatives. Notably, a temporal convolutional network designed for forecasting Perennial Ryegrass growth in Cork exhibits high performance, leveraging historical grass height data with RMSE of 2.74 and MAE of 3.46. V alidation across a comprehensive dataset spanning 1,757 weeks over 34 years provides insights into optimal model configurations. This study enhances our understanding of model behavior, thereby improving reliability in grass growth forecasting and contributing to the advancement of sustainable dairy farming practices. Introduction Grasslands stand as the world's largest terrestrial ecosystem, serving as a pivotal source of sustenance for livestock. Tackling the escalating demand for meat and dairy products in an environmentally sustainable manner presents a formidable challenge. Encompassing 31.5% of the Earth's landmass (Latham et al., 2014), grasslands rank among the most prevalent and widespread vegetation types.

In the evolution of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), traffic flow prediction has played a pivotal role [1]. Accurate and real-time traffic forecasting is not only a fundamental component of ITS but also a key enabler for efficient urban operation and intelligent mobility development [2, 3]. With the rapid increase in private vehicle ownership, particularly in fast-growing economies, urban road networks have become increasingly congested, and major intersections and arterial roads often experience persistent traffic jams [4]. By accurately predicting traffic flow over short time intervals at critical intersections, transportation authorities can make informed decisions on traffic control and road planning, reduce accidents and delays, and provide travelers with reasonable route recommendations, thereby alleviating traffic pressure and maximizing the utilization of road resources. Figure 1 shows the traffic flow distribution scene at a typical four-way intersection on a city road. In traditional traffic flow prediction studies, various modeling approaches have been proposed, ranging from classical time series models (such as ARIMA) to machine learning and deep learning frameworks (such as RNN and LSTM) [5]. Although these single-model approaches can achieve satisfactory planning performance under controlled conditions [6], their generalization and robustness are often limited by the highly dynamic and nonlinear nature of urban traffic systems [7]. Moreover, most existing models primarily emphasize prediction accuracy while overlooking critical aspects such as computational efficiency, adaptability, and scalability, which are essential for real-time applications in large-scale traffic networks [8]. To address the aforementioned limitations, hybrid and decomposition-based modeling approaches have attracted growing research interest.

Traditional neural networks struggle to capture the spectral structure of complex signals. Fourier neural networks (FNNs) attempt to address this by embedding Fourier series components, yet many real-world signals are almost-periodic with non-commensurate frequencies, posing additional challenges. Building on prior work showing that ARIMA outperforms large language models (LLMs) for forecasting, we extend the comparison to neural predictors and find ARIMA still superior. We therefore propose the Autoregressive-Weight-Enhanced Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (AR-KAN), which integrates a pre-trained AR module for temporal memory with a KAN for nonlinear representation. The AR module preserves essential temporal features while reducing redundancy. Experiments demonstrate that AR-KAN matches ARIMA on almost-periodic functions and achieves the best results on $72\%$ of Rdatasets series, with a clear advantage on data with periodic structure. These results highlight AR-KAN as a robust and effective framework for time series forecasting.

These sources provide verified visual data on Russian equipment losses--including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and support vehicles--enabling researchers to track material attrition at an unprecedented level of detail. Accurate forecasting of such losses is vital for military strategists, policymakers, and analysts attempting to model battlefield sustainability, logistics capacity, and broader trends in Russian force degradation. Traditional statistical models such as ARIMA offer a baseline for temporal forecasting, while more modern approaches--such as Prophet, LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), and XGBoost--introduce the ability to capture nonlinear dynamics, regime shifts, and short-term volatility. This paper evaluates each of these models using daily and monthly WarSpotting data. We assess their predictive accuracy, sensitivity to input granularity, and their robustness under shifting battlefield conditions.

Time-series forecasting underpins critical decisions across aviation, energy, retail and health. Classical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models offer interpretability via coefficients but struggle with nonlinearities, whereas tree-based machine-learning models such as XGBoost deliver high accuracy but are often opaque. This paper presents a unified framework for interpreting time-series forecasts using local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) and SHapley additive exPlanations (SHAP). We convert a univariate series into a leakage-free supervised learning problem, train a gradient-boosted tree alongside an ARIMA baseline and apply post-hoc explainability. Using the Air Passengers dataset as a case study, we show that a small set of lagged features -- particularly the twelve-month lag -- and seasonal encodings explain most forecast variance. We contribute: (i) a methodology for applying LIME and SHAP to time series without violating chronology; (ii) theoretical exposition of the underlying algorithms; (iii) empirical evaluation with extensive analysis; and (iv) guidelines for practitioners.

- This paper addresses the critical need for efficient energy management in healthcare facilities, where fluctuating energy demands challenge both operational and sustainability goals. Traditional energy management methods often fall short in healthcare settings, lead ing to inefficiencies and increased costs. To address this, the paper explores AI - driven approaches for demand forecasting and load balancing, introducing a novel integration of LSTM (Long Short - Term Memory), g enetic a lgorithm, and SHAP (Shapley Additive E xplanations) specifically tailored for healthcare energy management. While LSTM has been widely used for time - series forecasting, its application in healthcare energy demand prediction is underexplored. Here, LSTM is demonstrated to significantly outperfor m ARIMA and Prophet models in handling complex, non - linear demand patterns. Results show that LSTM achieved a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 21.69 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 29.96, significantly improving upon Prophet (MAE: 59.78, RMSE: 81.22) and ARIMA (MAE: 87.73, RMSE: 125.22), highlighting its superior forecasting capability. Genetic algorithm is employed not only for optimising forecasting model parameters but also for dynamically improving load balancing strategies, ensuring adaptability to real - time energy fluctuations. Additionally, SHAP analysis is used to interpret the models and understan d the impact of various input features on predictions, enhancing model transparency and trustworthiness in energy decision - making. The combined LSTM - GA - SH AP approach offers a comprehensive framework that improves forecasting accuracy, enhances energy efficiency, and supports sustainability in healthcare environments. Future work could focus on real - time implementation and further hybridisation with reinforc ement learning for continuous optimisation. This study establishes a strong foundation for leveraging AI in healthcare energy management, showcasing its potential for scalability, efficiency, and resilience. Introduction Australia has a big capacity of using renewable energy in different regions ( Holloway, R, 2023; Rahimi et al., 2025) . Australian healthcare system plays a major role in using renewable energies. Optimising energy use in healthcare systems is essential due to the high and often unpredictable energy demands needed to run medical equipment, keep environmental conditions stable, and support constant patient care.