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Sample Complexity of Forecast Aggregation

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider a Bayesian forecast aggregation model where n experts, after observing private signals about an unknown binary event, report th eir posterior beliefs about the event to a principal, who then aggregates the repor ts into a single prediction for the event. The signals of the experts and the outcome of the event follow a joint distribution that is unknown to the principal, but th e principal has access to i.i.d. "samples" from the distribution, where each sampl e is a tuple of the experts' reports (not signals) and the realization of the even t. Using these samples, the principal aims to find an ε -approximately optimal aggregator, where optimal-ity is measured in terms of the expected squared distance bet ween the aggregated prediction and the realization of the event.




Generalised f-Mean Aggregation for Graph Neural Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

Graph Neural Network (GNN) architectures are defined by their implementations of update and aggregation modules. While many works focus on new ways to parametrise the update modules, the aggregation modules receive comparatively little attention. Because it is difficult to parametrise aggregation functions, currently most methods select a "standard aggregator" such as mean, sum, or max . While this selection is often made without any reasoning, it has been shown that the choice in aggregator has a significant impact on performance, and the best choice in aggregator is problem-dependent. Since aggregation is a lossy operation, it is crucial to select the most appropriate aggregator in order to minimise information loss. In this paper, we present GenAgg, a generalised aggregation operator, which parametrises a function space that includes all standard aggregators. In our experiments, we show that GenAgg is able to represent the standard aggregators with much higher accuracy than baseline methods. We also show that using GenAgg as a drop-in replacement for an existing aggregator in a GNN often leads to a significant boost in performance across various tasks.