Latent Variable Models (LVMs) propose to model the dynamics of neural populations by capturing low-dimensional structures that represent features involved in neural activity. Recent LVMs are based on deep learning methodology where a deep neural network is trained to reconstruct the same neural activity given as input and as a result to build the latent representation. Without taking past or future activity into account such a task is non-causal. In contrast, the task of forecasting neural activity based on given input extends the reconstruction task. LVMs that are trained on such a task could potentially capture temporal causality constraints within its latent representation.

Latent Variable Models (LVMs) propose to model the dynamics of neural populations by capturing low-dimensional structures that represent features involved in neural activity. Recent LVMs are based on deep learning methodology where a deep neural network is trained to reconstruct the same neural activity given as input and as a result to build the latent representation. Without taking past or future activity into account such a task is non-causal. In contrast, the task of forecasting neural activity based on given input extends the reconstruction task. LVMs that are trained on such a task could potentially capture temporal causality constraints within its latent representation.

Understanding generalization is crucial to confidently engineer and deploy machine learning models, especially when deployment implies a shift in the data domain. For such domain adaptation problems, we seek generalization bounds which are tractably computable and tight. If these desiderata can be reached, the bounds can serve as guarantees for adequate performance in deployment. However, in applications where deep neural networks are the models of choice, deriving results which fulfill these remains an unresolved challenge; most existing bounds are either vacuous or has non-estimable terms, even in favorable conditions. In this work, we evaluate existing bounds from the literature with potential to satisfy our desiderata on domain adaptation image classification tasks, where deep neural networks are preferred. We find that all bounds are vacuous and that sample generalization terms account for much of the observed looseness, especially when these terms interact with measures of domain shift. To overcome this and arrive at the tightest possible results, we combine each bound with recent data-dependent PAC-Bayes analysis, greatly improving the guarantees. We find that, when domain overlap can be assumed, a simple importance weighting extension of previous work provides the tightest estimable bound. Finally, we study which terms dominate the bounds and identify possible directions for further improvement.

Time series of counts arise in a variety of forecasting applications, for which traditional models are generally inappropriate. This paper introduces a hierarchical Bayesian formulation applicable to count time series that can easily account for explanatory variables and share statistical strength across groups of related time series. We derive an efficient approximate inference technique, and illustrate its performance on a number of datasets from supply chain planning.