Suppose we observe data from a distribution $P$ and we wish to test the composite null hypothesis that $P\in\mathscr P$ against a composite alternative $P\in \mathscr Q\subseteq \mathscr P^c$. Herbert Robbins and coauthors pointed out around 1970 that, while no batch test can have a level $α\in(0,1)$ and power equal to one, sequential tests can be constructed with this fantastic property. Since then, and especially in the last decade, a plethora of sequential tests have been developed for a wide variety of settings. However, the literature has not yet provided a clean and general answer as to when such power-one sequential tests exist. This paper provides a remarkably general sufficient condition (that we also prove is not necessary). Focusing on i.i.d. laws in Polish spaces without any further restriction, we show that there exists a level-$α$ sequential test for any weakly compact $\mathscr P$, that is power-one against $\mathscr P^c$ (or any subset thereof). We show how to aggregate such tests into an $e$-process for $\mathscr P$ that increases to infinity under $\mathscr P^c$. We conclude by building an $e$-process that is asymptotically relatively growth rate optimal against $\mathscr P^c$, an extremely powerful result.

Inrealisticscenarios with very limited numbers of data samples, it can be challenging to identify a kernel powerful enough to distinguish complex distributions.

Given Assumptions 1-4 in Giordanoetal.

ARacknowledgesfundingfroman Adobe Faculty Research Award, andan NSFDMS 1916320 grant.

Agentic AI systems execute a sequence of actions, such as reasoning steps or tool calls, in response to a user prompt. To evaluate the success of their trajectories, researchers have developed verifiers, such as LLM judges and process-reward models, to score the quality of each action in an agent's trajectory. Although these heuristic scores can be informative, there are no guarantees of correctness when used to decide whether an agent will yield a successful output. Here, we introduce e-valuator, a method to convert any black-box verifier score into a decision rule with provable control of false alarm rates. We frame the problem of distinguishing successful trajectories (that is, a sequence of actions that will lead to a correct response to the user's prompt) and unsuccessful trajectories as a sequential hypothesis testing problem. E-valuator builds on tools from e-processes to develop a sequential hypothesis test that remains statistically valid at every step of an agent's trajectory, enabling online monitoring of agents over arbitrarily long sequences of actions. Empirically, we demonstrate that e-valuator provides greater statistical power and better false alarm rate control than other strategies across six datasets and three agents. We additionally show that e-valuator can be used for to quickly terminate problematic trajectories and save tokens. Together, e-valuator provides a lightweight, model-agnostic framework that converts verifier heuristics into decisions rules with statistical guarantees, enabling the deployment of more reliable agentic systems.

This has lead to an explosion of interest in so-called "algorithmic fairness", and a significant body of

We present a generic approach to constructing a frequentist CS using Bayesian tools, based on the fact that the ratio of a prior to the posterior at the ground truth is a martingale. We then present Hoeffding-and empirical-Bernstein-type time-uniform CSs and fixed-time confidence intervals for sampling WoR, which improve on previous bounds in the literature and explicitly quantify the benefit of WoR sampling.

We study the self-normalized concentration of vector-valued stochastic processes. We focus on bounds for sub-$ψ$ processes, a tail condition that encompasses a wide variety of well-known distributions (including sub-exponential, sub-Gaussian, sub-gamma, and sub-Poisson distributions). Our results recover and generalize the influential bound of Abbasi-Yadkori et al. (2011) and fill a gap in the literature between determinant-based bounds and those based on condition numbers. As applications we prove a Bernstein inequality for random vectors satisfying a moment condition (which is more general than boundedness), and also provide the first dimension-free, self-normalized empirical Bernstein inequality. Our techniques are based on the variational (PAC-Bayes) approach to concentration.