Humans excel at detecting and segmenting moving objects according to the Gestalt principle of "common fate". Remarkably, previous works have shown that human perception generalizes this principle in a zero-shot fashion to unseen textures or random dots. In this work, we seek to better understand the computational basis for this capability by evaluating a broad range of optical flow models and a neuroscience inspired motion energy model for zero-shot figure-ground segmentation of random dot stimuli. Specifically, we use the extensively validated motion energy model proposed by Simoncelli and Heeger in 1998 which is fitted to neural recordings in cortex area MT. We find that a cross section of 40 deep optical flow models trained on different datasets struggle to estimate motion patterns in random dot videos, resulting in poor figure-ground segmentation performance. Conversely, the neuroscience-inspired model significantly outperforms all optical flow models on this task.

Providing a timely intervention before the onset of a critical event, such as a system failure, is of importance in many industrial settings. Before the onset of the critical event, systems typically exhibit behavioral changes which often manifest as stochastic co-variate observations which may be leveraged to trigger intervention. In this paper, for the first time, we formulate the problem of finding an optimally timed intervention (OTI) policy as minimizing the expected residual time to event, subject to a constraint on the probability of missing the event. Existing machine learning approaches to intervention on critical events focus on predicting event occurrence within a pre-defined window (a classification problem) or predicting time-to-event (a regression problem). Interventions are then triggered by setting model thresholds.

Marginalisation Operation Suppose V can be split as V = Ṽ [ Ũ where we are interested in the causal structure over Ṽ and do not observe the variables Ũ. For all U 2 Ũ, add an edge Z! Z if the current graph contains Z! U! Z and then U Figure 5: Example of step one in the marginalisation, taken from Evans [22]. The explanation for the biases are given in Appendix E. In this section we analyse the datasets presented in Le Quy et al. [43] for the three biases we present For each bias we provide a justification of our decision. Therefore we drop them from the analysis. COMPAS have been well documented to exhibit all these biases and more [5].

Fairness metrics are a core tool in the fair machine learning literature (FairML), used to determine that ML models are, in some sense, "fair." Real-world data, however, are typically plagued by various measurement biases and other violated assumptions, which can render fairness assessments meaningless. We adapt tools from causal sensitivity analysis to the FairML context, providing a general framework which (1) accommodates effectively any combination of fairness metric and bias that can be posed in the "oblivious setting"; (2) allows researchers to investigate combinations of biases, resulting in non-linear sensitivity; and (3) enables flexible encoding of domain-specific constraints and assumptions. Employing this framework, we analyze the sensitivity of the most common parity metrics under 3 varieties of classifier across 14 canonical fairness datasets. Our analysis reveals the striking fragility of fairness assessments to even minor dataset biases. We show that causal sensitivity analysis provides a powerful and necessary toolkit for gauging the informativeness of parity metric evaluations. Our repository is available here.

In non-linear filtering, it is traditional to compare non-linear architectures such as neural networks to the standard linear Kalman Filter (KF). We observe that this mixes the evaluation of two separate components: the non-linear architecture, and the parameters optimization method. In particular, the non-linear model is often optimized, whereas the reference KF model is not. We argue that both should be optimized similarly, and to that end present the Optimized KF (OKF). We demonstrate that the KF may become competitive to neural models - if optimized using OKF. This implies that experimental conclusions of certain previous studies were derived from a flawed process. The advantage of OKF over the standard KF is further studied theoretically and empirically, in a variety of problems. Conveniently, OKF can replace the KF in real-world systems by merely updating the parameters. Our experiments are published in Github, and the OKF in PyPI.

In non-linear filtering, it is traditional to compare non-linear architectures such as neural networks to the standard linear Kalman Filter (KF). We observe that this mixes the evaluation of two separate components: the non-linear architecture, and the parameters optimization method. In particular, the non-linear model is often optimized, whereas the reference KF model is not. We argue that both should be optimized similarly, and to that end present the Optimized KF (OKF). We demonstrate that the KF may become competitive to neural models - if optimized using OKF. This implies that experimental conclusions of certain previous studies were derived from a flawed process. The advantage of OKF over the standard KF is further studied theoretically and empirically, in a variety of problems. Conveniently, OKF can replace the KF in real-world systems by merely updating the parameters. Our experiments are published in Github, and the OKF in PyPI.

In this study, we investigate the under-explored intervention planning aimed at disseminating accurate information within dynamic opinion networks by leveraging learning strategies. Intervention planning involves identifying key nodes (search) and exerting control (e.g., disseminating accurate/official information through the nodes) to mitigate the influence of misinformation. However, as the network size increases, the problem becomes computationally intractable. To address this, we first introduce a ranking algorithm to identify key nodes for disseminating accurate information, which facilitates the training of neural network (NN) classifiers that provide generalized solutions for the search and planning problems. Second, we mitigate the complexity of label generation--which becomes challenging as the network grows--by developing a reinforcement learning (RL)-based centralized dynamic planning framework.

Deep Neural Networks inherit biased correlations embedded in training data and hence may fail to predict desired labels on unseen domains (or environments), which have different distributions from the domain to provide training data. Invariance Learning (IL) has been developed recently to overcome this shortcoming; using training data in many domains, IL estimates such a predictor that is invariant to a change of domain. However, the requirement of training data in multiple domains is a strong restriction of using IL, since it demands expensive annotation. We propose a novel IL framework to overcome this problem. Assuming the availability of data from multiple domains for a classification task at a higher level, for which the labeling cost is lower, we estimate an invariant predictor for the target classification task with training data gathered in a single domain. Additionally, we propose two cross-validation methods for selecting hyperparameters of invariance regularization, which has not been addressed properly in existing IL methods. The effectiveness of the proposed framework, including the cross-validation, is demonstrated empirically. Theoretical analysis reveals that our framework can estimate the desirable invariant predictor with a hyperparameter fixed correctly, and that such a preferable hyperparameter is chosen by the proposed CV methods under some conditions.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown potential in complex financial tasks, but sequential financial decision-making remains challenging due to the volatile environment and the need for intelligent risk management. While LLM-based agent systems have achieved impressive returns, optimizing multi-source information synthesis and decision-making through timely experience refinement is underexplored.