In this paper, we show that classical survival analysis involving censored data can naturally be cast as a ranking problem. The concordance index (CI), which quantifies the quality of rankings, is the standard performance measure for model \emph{assessment} in survival analysis. In contrast, the standard approach to \emph{learning} the popular proportional hazard (PH) model is based on Cox's partial likelihood. In this paper we devise two bounds on CI--one of which emerges directly from the properties of PH models--and optimize them \emph{directly}. Our experimental results suggest that both methods perform about equally well, with our new approach giving slightly better results than the Cox's method. We also explain why a method designed to maximize the Cox's partial likelihood also ends up (approximately) maximizing the CI.

Rare category detection is an open challenge for active learning, especially in the de-novo case (no labeled examples), but of significant practical importance for data mining - e.g.

We present a new local approximation algorithm for computing MAP and logpartition functionfor arbitrary exponential family distribution represented by a finite-valued pairwise Markov random field (MRF), say G. Our algorithm is based on decomposing G into appropriately chosen small components; computing estimates locally in each of these components and then producing a good global solution. We prove that the algorithm can provide approximate solution within arbitrary accuracy when G excludes some finite sized graph as its minor and G has bounded degree: all Planar graphs with bounded degree are examples of such graphs. The running time of the algorithm is Θ(n) (n is the number of nodes in G), with constant dependent on accuracy, degree of graph and size of the graph that is excluded as a minor (constant for Planar graphs). Our algorithm for minor-excluded graphs uses the decomposition scheme of Klein, Plotkin and Rao (1993). In general, our algorithm works with any decomposition schemeand provides quantifiable approximation guarantee that depends on the decomposition scheme.

We consider continuous state, continuous action batch reinforcement learning where the goal is to learn a good policy from a sufficiently rich trajectory generated by another policy. We study a variant of fitted Q-iteration, where the greedy action selection is replaced by searching for a policy in a restricted set of candidate policies by maximizing the average action values. We provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of this algorithm, proving what we believe is the first finite-time bounds for value-function based algorithms for continuous state- and action-space problems.

We study the problem of an apprentice learning to behave in an environment with an unknown reward function by observing the behavior of an expert. We follow on the work of Abbeel and Ng [1] who considered a framework in which the true reward function is assumed to be a linear combination of a set of known and observable features.We give a new algorithm that, like theirs, is guaranteed to learn a policy that is nearly as good as the expert's, given enough examples. However, unlike their algorithm, we show that ours may produce a policy that is substantially better than the expert's. Moreover, our algorithm is computationally faster, is easier toimplement, and can be applied even in the absence of an expert. The method is based on a game-theoretic view of the problem, which leads naturally to a direct application of the multiplicative-weights algorithm of Freund and Schapire [2] for playing repeated matrix games. In addition to our formal presentation and analysis of the new algorithm, we sketch how the method can be applied when the transition functionitself is unknown, and we provide an experimental demonstration of the algorithm on a toy video-game environment.

The resulting model is able to generalize considerably better for users with very few ratings.

Businesses want to save power without sacrificing performance.This paper presents a reinforcement learning approach to simultaneous online management of both performance and power consumption. We apply RL in a realistic laboratory testbed using a Blade cluster and dynamically varyingHTTP workload running on a commercial web applications middleware platform.We embed a CPU frequency controller in the Blade servers' firmware, and we train policies for this controller using a multi-criteria reward signal depending on both application performance and CPU power consumption. Our testbed scenario posed a number of challenges to successful use of RL, including multipledisparate reward functions, limited decision sampling rates, and pathologies arising when using multiple sensor readings as state variables. We describe innovative practical solutions to these challenges, and demonstrate clear performance improvements over both hand-designed policies as well as obvious "cookbook" RL implementations.

It is known that determinining whether a DEC-POMDP, namely, a cooperative partially observable stochastic game (POSG), has a cooperative strategy with positive expected reward is complete for NEXP. It was not known until now how cooperation affected that complexity. We show that, for competitive POSGs, the complexity of determining whether one team has a positive-expected-reward strategy is complete for the class NEXP with an oracle for NP.

Rosetta is one of the leading algorithms for protein structure prediction today. It is a Monte Carlo energy minimization method requiring many random restarts to find structures with low energy. In this paper we present a resampling technique for structure prediction of small alpha/beta proteins using Rosetta. From an initial roundof Rosetta sampling, we learn properties of the energy landscape that guide a subsequent round of sampling toward lower-energy structures. Rather than attempt to fit the full energy landscape, we use feature selection methods--both L1-regularized linear regression and decision trees--to identify structural features that give rise to low energy. We then enrich these structural features in the second sampling round. Results are presented across a benchmark set of nine small alpha/beta proteinsdemonstrating that our methods seldom impair, and frequently improve, Rosetta's performance.

Many tasks in speech processing involve classification of long term characteristics of a speech segment such as language, speaker, dialect, or topic. A natural technique fordetermining these characteristics is to first convert the input speech into a sequence of tokens such as words, phones, etc. From these tokens, we can then look for distinctive sequences, keywords, that characterize the speech. In many applications, a set of distinctive keywords may not be known a priori. In this case, an automatic method of building up keywords from short context units such as phones is desirable. We propose a method for the construction of keywords based upon Support Vector Machines. We cast the problem of keyword selection as a feature selection problem for n-grams of phones. We propose an alternating filter-wrappermethod that builds successively longer keywords. Application of this method to language recognition and topic recognition tasks shows that the technique produces interesting and significant qualitative and quantitative results.