Federated Learning (FL) has been becoming a popular interdisciplinary research area in both applied mathematics and information sciences. Mathematically, FL aims to collaboratively optimize aggregate objective functions over distributed datasets while satisfying a variety of privacy and system constraints.Different from conventional distributed optimization methods, FL needs to address several specific issues (e.g., non-i.i.d. data distributions and differential private noises), which pose a set of new challenges in the problem formulation, algorithm design, and convergence analysis. In this paper, we will systematically review existing FL optimization research including their assumptions, formulations, methods, and theoretical results. Potential future directions are also discussed.

Current forecasting approaches are largely unimodal and ignore the rich textual data that often accompany the time series due to lack of well-curated multimodal benchmark dataset. In this work, we develop TimeText Corpus (TTC), a carefully curated, time-aligned text and time dataset for multimodal forecasting. Our dataset is composed of sequences of numbers and text aligned to timestamps, and includes data from two different domains: climate science and healthcare. Our data is a significant contribution to the rare selection of available multimodal datasets. We also propose the Hybrid Multi-Modal Forecaster (Hybrid-MMF), a multimodal LLM that jointly forecasts both text and time series data using shared embeddings. However, contrary to our expectations, our Hybrid-MMF model does not outperform existing baselines in our experiments. This negative result highlights the challenges inherent in multimodal forecasting. Deep learning has become the predominant method in forecasting large-scale time series Zhou et al. (2022); Wang et al. (2022); Woo et al. (2023), but most existing methods consider time series as a single data modality. In practice, time series data do not exist in isolation and there are rich text meta-data available.

Temporal graph clustering is a complex task that involves discovering meaningful structures in dynamic graphs where relationships and entities change over time. Existing methods typically require centralized data collection, which poses significant privacy and communication challenges. In this work, we introduce a novel Federated Temporal Graph Clustering (FTGC) framework that enables decentralized training of graph neural networks (GNNs) across multiple clients, ensuring data privacy throughout the process. Our approach incorporates a temporal aggregation mechanism to effectively capture the evolution of graph structures over time and a federated optimization strategy to collaboratively learn high-quality clustering representations. By preserving data privacy and reducing communication overhead, our framework achieves competitive performance on temporal graph datasets, making it a promising solution for privacy-sensitive, real-world applications involving dynamic data.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained popularity in time series forecasting, but their potential for anomaly detection remains largely unexplored. Our study investigates whether LLMs can understand and detect anomalies in time series data, focusing on zero-shot and few-shot scenarios. Inspired by conjectures about LLMs' behavior from time series forecasting research, we formulate key hypotheses about LLMs' capabilities in time series anomaly detection. We design and conduct principled experiments to test each of these hypotheses. Our investigation reveals several surprising findings about LLMs for time series: 1. LLMs understand time series better as images rather than as text 2. LLMs did not demonstrate enhanced performance when prompted to engage in explicit reasoning about time series analysis 3. Contrary to common beliefs, LLM's understanding of time series do not stem from their repetition biases or arithmetic abilities 4. LLMs' behaviors and performance in time series analysis vary significantly across different model architectures This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of contemporary LLM capabilities in time series anomaly detection. Our results suggest that while LLMs can understand time series anomalies, many common conjectures based on their reasoning capabilities do not hold. Our code and data are available at `https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/AnomLLM/`.

Existing methods for anomaly detection often fall short due to their inability to handle the complexity, heterogeneity, and high dimensionality inherent in real-world mobility data. In this paper, we propose DeepBayesic, a novel framework that integrates Bayesian principles with deep neural networks to model the underlying multivariate distributions from sparse and complex datasets. Unlike traditional models, DeepBayesic is designed to manage heterogeneous inputs, accommodating both continuous and categorical data to provide a more comprehensive understanding of mobility patterns. The framework features customized neural density estimators and hybrid architectures, allowing for flexibility in modeling diverse feature distributions and enabling the use of specialized neural networks tailored to different data types. Our approach also leverages agent embeddings for personalized anomaly detection, enhancing its ability to distinguish between normal and anomalous behaviors for individual agents. We evaluate our approach on several mobility datasets, demonstrating significant improvements over state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods. Our results indicate that incorporating personalization and advanced sequence modeling techniques can substantially enhance the ability to detect subtle and complex anomalies in spatiotemporal event sequences.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are employed across various high-stakes domains, where the reliability of their outputs is crucial. One commonly used method to assess the reliability of LLMs' responses is uncertainty estimation, which gauges the likelihood of their answers being correct. While many studies focus on improving the accuracy of uncertainty estimations for LLMs, our research investigates the fragility of uncertainty estimation and explores potential attacks. We demonstrate that an attacker can embed a backdoor in LLMs, which, when activated by a specific trigger in the input, manipulates the model's uncertainty without affecting the final output. Specifically, the proposed backdoor attack method can alter an LLM's output probability distribution, causing the probability distribution to converge towards an attacker-predefined distribution while ensuring that the top-1 prediction remains unchanged. Our experimental results demonstrate that this attack effectively undermines the model's self-evaluation reliability in multiple-choice questions. For instance, we achieved a 100 attack success rate (ASR) across three different triggering strategies in four models. Further, we investigate whether this manipulation generalizes across different prompts and domains. This work highlights a significant threat to the reliability of LLMs and underscores the need for future defenses against such attacks. The code is available at https://github.com/qcznlp/uncertainty_attack.

Exceptional mathematical reasoning ability is one of the key features that demonstrate the power of large language models (LLMs). How to comprehensively define and evaluate the mathematical abilities of LLMs, and even reflect the user experience in real-world scenarios, has emerged as a critical issue. Current benchmarks predominantly concentrate on problem-solving capabilities, which presents a substantial risk of model overfitting and fails to accurately represent genuine mathematical reasoning abilities. In this paper, we argue that if a model really understands a problem, it should be robustly and readily applied across a diverse array of tasks. Motivated by this, we introduce MATHCHECK, a well-designed checklist for testing task generalization and reasoning robustness, as well as an automatic tool to generate checklists efficiently. MATHCHECK includes multiple mathematical reasoning tasks and robustness test types to facilitate a comprehensive evaluation of both mathematical reasoning ability and behavior testing. Utilizing MATHCHECK, we develop MATHCHECK-GSM and MATHCHECK-GEO to assess mathematical textual reasoning and multi-modal reasoning capabilities, respectively, serving as upgraded versions of benchmarks including GSM8k, GeoQA, UniGeo, and Geometry3K. We adopt MATHCHECK-GSM and MATHCHECK-GEO to evaluate over 20 LLMs and 11 MLLMs, assessing their comprehensive mathematical reasoning abilities. Our results demonstrate that while frontier LLMs like GPT-4o continue to excel in various abilities on the checklist, many other model families exhibit a significant decline. Further experiments indicate that, compared to traditional math benchmarks, MATHCHECK better reflects true mathematical abilities and represents mathematical intelligence more linearly, thereby supporting our design. On our MATHCHECK, we can easily conduct detailed behavior analysis to deeply investigate models.

Manufacturing complexities and uncertainties have impeded the transition from material prototypes to commercial batteries, making prototype verification critical to quality assessment. A fundamental challenge involves deciphering intertwined chemical processes to characterize degradation patterns and their quantitative relationship with battery performance. Here we show that a physics-informed machine learning approach can quantify and visualize temporally resolved losses concerning thermodynamics and kinetics only using electric signals. Our method enables non-destructive degradation pattern characterization, expediting temperature-adaptable predictions of entire lifetime trajectories, rather than end-of-life points. The verification speed is 25 times faster yet maintaining 95.1% accuracy across temperatures. Such advances facilitate more sustainable management of defective prototypes before massive production, establishing a 19.76 billion USD scrap material recycling market by 2060 in China. By incorporating stepwise charge acceptance as a measure of the initial manufacturing variability of normally identical batteries, we can immediately identify long-term degradation variations. We attribute the predictive power to interpreting machine learning insights using material-agnostic featurization taxonomy for degradation pattern decoupling. Our findings offer new possibilities for dynamic system analysis, such as battery prototype degradation, demonstrating that complex pattern evolutions can be accurately predicted in a non-destructive and data-driven fashion by integrating physics-informed machine learning.

We propose a data-driven simulator for Mechanical Circulatory Support (MCS) devices, implemented as a probabilistic deep sequence model. Existing mechanical simulators for MCS rely on oversimplifying assumptions and are insensitive to patient-specific behavior, limiting their applicability to real-world treatment scenarios. To address these shortcomings, our model Domain Adversarial Neural Process (DANP) employs a neural process architecture, allowing it to capture the probabilistic relationship between MCS pump levels and aortic pressure measurements with uncertainty. We use domain adversarial training to combine simulation data with real-world observations, resulting in a more realistic and diverse representation of potential outcomes. Empirical results with an improvement of 19% in non-stationary trend prediction establish DANP as an effective tool for clinicians to understand and make informed decisions regarding MCS patient treatment.

Recent studies have uncovered the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) in addressing complex sequential decision-making tasks through the provision of high-level instructions. However, LLM-based agents lack specialization in tackling specific target problems, particularly in real-time dynamic environments. Additionally, deploying an LLM-based agent in practical scenarios can be both costly and time-consuming. On the other hand, reinforcement learning (RL) approaches train agents that specialize in the target task but often suffer from low sampling efficiency and high exploration costs. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework that addresses these challenges by training a smaller, specialized student RL agent using instructions from an LLM-based teacher agent. By incorporating the guidance from the teacher agent, the student agent can distill the prior knowledge of the LLM into its own model. Consequently, the student agent can be trained with significantly less data. Moreover, through further training with environment feedback, the student agent surpasses the capabilities of its teacher for completing the target task. We conducted experiments on challenging MiniGrid and Habitat environments, specifically designed for embodied AI research, to evaluate the effectiveness of our framework. The results clearly demonstrate that our approach achieves superior performance compared to strong baseline methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZJLAB-AMMI/LLM4Teach.