Weather and climate forecasting is vital for sectors such as agriculture and disaster management. Although numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have advanced, forecasting at the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) scale, spanning 2 to 6 weeks, remains challenging due to the chaotic and sparse atmospheric signals at this interval. Even state-of-the-art deep learning models struggle to outperform simple climatology models in this domain. This paper identifies that optimization, instead of network structure, could be the root cause of this performance gap, and then we develop a novel multi-stage optimization strategy to close the gap. Extensive empirical studies demonstrate that our multi-stage optimization approach significantly improves key skill metrics, PCC and TCC, while utilizing the same backbone structure, surpassing the state-of-the-art NWP systems (ECMWF-S2S) by over \textbf{19-91\%}. Our research contests the recent study that direct forecasting outperforms rolling forecasting for S2S tasks. Through theoretical analysis, we propose that the underperformance of rolling forecasting may arise from the accumulation of Jacobian matrix products during training. Our multi-stage framework can be viewed as a form of teacher forcing to address this issue. Code is available at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Baguan-S2S-23E7/}

In the field of weather forecasting, traditional models often grapple with discretization errors and time-dependent source discrepancies, which limit their predictive performance. In this paper, we present WeatherODE, a novel one-stage, physics-driven ordinary differential equation (ODE) model designed to enhance weather forecasting accuracy. By leveraging wave equation theory and integrating a time-dependent source model, WeatherODE effectively addresses the challenges associated with time-discretization error and dynamic atmospheric processes. Moreover, we design a CNN-ViT-CNN sandwich structure, facilitating efficient learning dynamics tailored for distinct yet interrelated tasks with varying optimization biases in advection equation estimation. Through rigorous experiments, WeatherODE demonstrates superior performance in both global and regional weather forecasting tasks, outperforming recent state-of-the-art approaches by significant margins of over 40.0\% and 31.8\% in root mean square error (RMSE), respectively. The source code is available at \url{https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/WeatherODE}.

Time series forecasting has played a significant role in many practical fields. But time series data generated from real-world applications always exhibits high variance and lots of noise, which makes it difficult to capture the inherent periodic patterns of the data, hurting the prediction accuracy significantly. To address this issue, we propose the Esiformer, which apply interpolation on the original data, decreasing the overall variance of the data and alleviating the influence of noise. What's more, we enhanced the vanilla transformer with a robust Sparse FFN. It can enhance the representation ability of the model effectively, and maintain the excellent robustness, avoiding the risk of overfitting compared with the vanilla implementation. Through evaluations on challenging real-world datasets, our method outperforms leading model PatchTST, reducing MSE by 6.5% and MAE by 5.8% in multivariate time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/yyg1282142265/Esiformer/tree/main.

Time series analysis is vital for numerous applications, and transformers have become increasingly prominent in this domain. Leading methods customize the transformer architecture from NLP and CV, utilizing a patching technique to convert continuous signals into segments. Yet, time series data are uniquely challenging due to significant distribution shifts and intrinsic noise levels. To address these two challenges,we introduce the Sparse Vector Quantized FFN-Free Transformer (Sparse-VQ). Our methodology capitalizes on a sparse vector quantization technique coupled with Reverse Instance Normalization (RevIN) to reduce noise impact and capture sufficient statistics for forecasting, serving as an alternative to the Feed-Forward layer (FFN) in the transformer architecture. Our FFN-free approach trims the parameter count, enhancing computational efficiency and reducing overfitting. Through evaluations across ten benchmark datasets, including the newly introduced CAISO dataset, Sparse-VQ surpasses leading models with a 7.84% and 4.17% decrease in MAE for univariate and multivariate time series forecasting, respectively. Moreover, it can be seamlessly integrated with existing transformer-based models to elevate their performance.

Accurate solar power forecasting is crucial to integrate photovoltaic plants into the electric grid, schedule and secure the power grid safety. This problem becomes more demanding for those newly installed solar plants which lack sufficient data. Current research predominantly relies on historical solar power data or numerical weather prediction in a single-modality format, ignoring the complementary information provided in different modalities. In this paper, we propose a multi-modality fusion framework to integrate historical power data, numerical weather prediction, and satellite images, significantly improving forecast performance. We introduce a vector quantized framework that aligns modalities with varying information densities, striking a balance between integrating sufficient information and averting model overfitting. Our framework demonstrates strong zero-shot forecasting capability, which is especially useful for those newly installed plants. Moreover, we collect and release a multi-modal solar power (MMSP) dataset from real-world plants to further promote the research of multi-modal solar forecasting algorithms. Our extensive experiments show that our model not only operates with robustness but also boosts accuracy in both zero-shot forecasting and scenarios rich with training data, surpassing leading models. We have incorporated it into our eForecaster platform and deployed it for more than 300 solar plants with a capacity of over 15GW.

Spatio-temporal forecasting, pivotal in numerous fields, hinges on the delicate equilibrium between isolating nuanced patterns and sifting out noise. To tackle this, we introduce Sparse Regression-based Vector Quantization (SVQ), a novel technique that leverages sparse regression for succinct representation, an approach theoretically and practically favored over classical clustering-based vector quantization methods. This approach preserves critical details from the original vectors using a regression model while filtering out noise via sparse design. Moreover, we approximate the sparse regression process using a blend of a two-layer MLP and an extensive codebook. This approach not only substantially cuts down on computational costs but also grants SVQ differentiability and training simplicity, resulting in a notable enhancement of performance. Our empirical studies on five spatial-temporal benchmark datasets demonstrate that SVQ achieves state-of-the-art results. Specifically, on the WeatherBench-S temperature dataset, SVQ improves the top baseline by 7.9%. In video prediction benchmarks-Human, KTH, and KittiCaltech-it reduces MAE by an average of 9.4% and improves image quality by 17.3% (LPIPS).

Time series forecasting is essential for many practical applications, with the adoption of transformer-based models on the rise due to their impressive performance in NLP and CV. Transformers' key feature, the attention mechanism, dynamically fusing embeddings to enhance data representation, often relegating attention weights to a byproduct role. Yet, time series data, characterized by noise and non-stationarity, poses significant forecasting challenges. Our approach elevates attention weights as the primary representation for time series, capitalizing on the temporal relationships among data points to improve forecasting accuracy. Our study shows that an attention map, structured using global landmarks and local windows, acts as a robust kernel representation for data points, withstanding noise and shifts in distribution. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art models, reducing mean squared error (MSE) in multivariate time series forecasting by a notable 3.6% without altering the core neural network architecture. It serves as a versatile component that can readily replace recent patching based embedding schemes in transformer-based models, boosting their performance.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is essential for the reliability of ML models. Most existing methods for OOD detection learn a fixed decision criterion from a given in-distribution dataset and apply it universally to decide if a data point is OOD. Recent work~\cite{fang2022is} shows that given only in-distribution data, it is impossible to reliably detect OOD data without extra assumptions. Motivated by the theoretical result and recent exploration of test-time adaptation methods, we propose a Non-Parametric Test Time \textbf{Ada}ptation framework for \textbf{O}ut-Of-\textbf{D}istribution \textbf{D}etection (\abbr). Unlike conventional methods, \abbr utilizes online test samples for model adaptation during testing, enhancing adaptability to changing data distributions. The framework incorporates detected OOD instances into decision-making, reducing false positive rates, particularly when ID and OOD distributions overlap significantly. We demonstrate the effectiveness of \abbr through comprehensive experiments on multiple OOD detection benchmarks, extensive empirical studies show that \abbr significantly improves the performance of OOD detection over state-of-the-art methods. Specifically, \abbr reduces the false positive rate (FPR95) by $23.23\%$ on the CIFAR-10 benchmarks and $38\%$ on the ImageNet-1k benchmarks compared to the advanced methods. Lastly, we theoretically verify the effectiveness of \abbr.

Despite the impressive achievements of pre-trained models in the fields of natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV), progress in the domain of time series analysis has been limited. In contrast to NLP and CV, where a single model can handle various tasks, time series analysis still relies heavily on task-specific methods for activities such as classification, anomaly detection, forecasting, and few-shot learning. The primary obstacle to developing a pre-trained model for time series analysis is the scarcity of sufficient training data. In our research, we overcome this obstacle by utilizing pre-trained models from language or CV, which have been trained on billions of data points, and apply them to time series analysis. We assess the effectiveness of the pre-trained transformer model in two ways. Initially, we maintain the original structure of the self-attention and feedforward layers in the residual blocks of the pre-trained language or image model, using the Frozen Pre-trained Transformer (FPT) for time series analysis with the addition of projection matrices for input and output. Additionally, we introduce four unique adapters, designed specifically for downstream tasks based on the pre-trained model, including forecasting and anomaly detection. These adapters are further enhanced with efficient parameter tuning, resulting in superior performance compared to all state-of-the-art methods.Our comprehensive experimental studies reveal that (a) the simple FPT achieves top-tier performance across various time series analysis tasks; and (b) fine-tuning the FPT with the custom-designed adapters can further elevate its performance, outshining specialized task-specific models.

Although we have witnessed great success of pre-trained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV), limited progress has been made for general time series analysis. Unlike NLP and CV where a unified model can be used to perform different tasks, specially designed approach still dominates in each time series analysis task such as classification, anomaly detection, forecasting, and few-shot learning. The main challenge that blocks the development of pre-trained model for time series analysis is the lack of a large amount of data for training. In this work, we address this challenge by leveraging language or CV models, pre-trained from billions of tokens, for time series analysis. Specifically, we refrain from altering the self-attention and feedforward layers of the residual blocks in the pre-trained language or image model. This model, known as the Frozen Pretrained Transformer (FPT), is evaluated through fine-tuning on all major types of tasks involving time series. Our results demonstrate that pre-trained models on natural language or images can lead to a comparable or state-of-the-art performance in all main time series analysis tasks, as illustrated in Figure 1. We also found both theoretically and empirically that the self-attention module behaviors similarly to principle component analysis (PCA), an observation that helps explains how transformer bridges the domain gap and a crucial step towards understanding the universality of a pre-trained transformer.