Notable progress has been made in generalist medical large language models across various healthcare areas. However, large-scale modeling of in-hospital time series data - such as vital signs, lab results, and treatments in critical care - remains underexplored. Existing datasets are relatively small, but combining them can enhance patient diversity and improve model robustness. To effectively utilize these combined datasets for large-scale modeling, it is essential to address the distribution shifts caused by varying treatment policies, necessitating the harmonization of treatment variables across the different datasets. This work aims to establish a foundation for training large-scale multi-variate time series models on critical care data and to provide a benchmark for machine learning models in transfer learning across hospitals to study and address distribution shift challenges. We introduce a harmonized dataset for sequence modeling and transfer learning research, representing the first large-scale collection to include core treatment variables. Future plans involve expanding this dataset to support further advancements in transfer learning and the development of scalable, generalizable models for critical healthcare applications.

This study advances Early Event Prediction (EEP) in healthcare through Dynamic Survival Analysis (DSA), offering a novel approach by integrating risk localization into alarm policies to enhance clinical event metrics. By adapting and evaluating DSA models against traditional EEP benchmarks, our research demonstrates their ability to match EEP models on a time-step level and significantly improve event-level metrics through a new alarm prioritization scheme (up to 11% AuPRC difference). This approach represents a significant step forward in predictive healthcare, providing a more nuanced and actionable framework for early event prediction and management.

Recent advances in deep learning architectures for sequence modeling have not fully transferred to tasks handling time-series from electronic health records. In particular, in problems related to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), the state-of-the-art remains to tackle sequence classification in a tabular manner with tree-based methods. Recent findings in deep learning for tabular data are now surpassing these classical methods by better handling the severe heterogeneity of data input features. Given the similar level of feature heterogeneity exhibited by ICU time-series and motivated by these findings, we explore these novel methods' impact on clinical sequence modeling tasks. By jointly using such advances in deep learning for tabular data, our primary objective is to underscore the importance of step-wise embeddings in time-series modeling, which remain unexplored in machine learning methods for clinical data. On a variety of clinically relevant tasks from two large-scale ICU datasets, MIMIC-III and HiRID, our work provides an exhaustive analysis of state-of-the-art methods for tabular time-series as time-step embedding models, showing overall performance improvement. In particular, we evidence the importance of feature grouping in clinical time-series, with significant performance gains when considering features within predefined semantic groups in the step-wise embedding module.

Neural additive models (NAMs) can improve the interpretability of deep neural networks by handling input features in separate additive sub-networks. However, they lack inherent mechanisms that provide calibrated uncertainties and enable selection of relevant features and interactions. Approaching NAMs from a Bayesian perspective, we enhance them in three primary ways, namely by a) providing credible intervals for the individual additive sub-networks; b) estimating the marginal likelihood to perform an implicit selection of features via an empirical Bayes procedure; and c) enabling a ranking of feature pairs as candidates for second-order interaction in fine-tuned models. In particular, we develop Laplace-approximated NAMs (LA-NAMs), which show improved empirical performance on tabular datasets and challenging real-world medical tasks.

A prominent challenge of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is the issue of hidden confounding: unobserved variables may influence both the actions taken by the agent and the observed outcomes. Hidden confounding can compromise the validity of any causal conclusion drawn from data and presents a major obstacle to effective offline RL. In the present paper, we tackle the problem of hidden confounding in the nonidentifiable setting. We propose a definition of uncertainty due to hidden confounding bias, termed delphic uncertainty, which uses variation over world models compatible with the observations, and differentiate it from the well-known epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We derive a practical method for estimating the three types of uncertainties, and construct a pessimistic offline RL algorithm to account for them. Our method does not assume identifiability of the unobserved confounders, and attempts to reduce the amount of confounding bias. We demonstrate through extensive experiments and ablations the efficacy of our approach on a sepsis management benchmark, as well as on electronic health records. Our results suggest that nonidentifiable hidden confounding bias can be mitigated to improve offline RL solutions in practice.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Understanding deep learning model behavior is critical to accepting machine learning-based decision support systems in the medical community. Previous research has shown that jointly using clinical notes with electronic health record (EHR) data improved predictive performance for patient monitoring in the intensive care unit (ICU). In this work, we explore the underlying reasons for these improvements. While relying on a basic attention-based model to allow for interpretability, we first confirm that performance significantly improves over state-of-the-art EHR data models when combining EHR data and clinical notes. We then provide an analysis showing improvements arise almost exclusively from a subset of notes containing broader context on patient state rather than clinician notes. We believe such findings highlight deep learning models for EHR data to be more limited by partially-descriptive data than by modeling choice, motivating a more data-centric approach in the field.