Time-to-event analysis provides insights into clinical prognosis and treatment recommendations. However, this task is more challenging than standard regression problems due to the presence of censored observations. Additionally, the lack of confidence assessment, model robustness, and prediction calibration raises concerns about the reliability of predictions. To address these challenges, we propose an evidential regression model specifically designed for time-to-event prediction. The proposed model quantifies both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties using Gaussian Random Fuzzy Numbers and belief functions, providing clinicians with uncertainty-aware survival time predictions. The model is trained by minimizing a generalized negative log-likelihood function accounting for data censoring. Experimental evaluations using simulated datasets with different data distributions and censoring conditions, as well as real-world datasets across diverse clinical applications, demonstrate that our model delivers both accurate and reliable performance, outperforming state-of-the-art methods. These results highlight the potential of our approach for enhancing clinical decision-making in survival analysis.

Multimodal survival analysis aims to combine heterogeneous data sources (e.g., clinical, imaging, text, genomics) to improve the prediction quality of survival outcomes. However, this task is particularly challenging due to high heterogeneity and noise across data sources, which vary in structure, distribution, and context. Additionally, the ground truth is often censored (uncertain) due to incomplete follow-up data. In this paper, we propose a novel evidential multimodal survival fusion model, EsurvFusion, designed to combine multimodal data at the decision level through an evidence-based decision fusion layer that jointly addresses both data and model uncertainty while incorporating modality-level reliability. Specifically, EsurvFusion first models unimodal data with newly introduced Gaussian random fuzzy numbers, producing unimodal survival predictions along with corresponding aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. It then estimates modality-level reliability through a reliability discounting layer to correct the misleading impact of noisy data modalities. Finally, a multimodal evidence-based fusion layer is introduced to combine the discounted predictions to form a unified, interpretable multimodal survival analysis model, revealing each modality's influence based on the learned reliability coefficients. This is the first work that studies multimodal survival analysis with both uncertainty and reliability. Extensive experiments on four multimodal survival datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in handling high heterogeneity data, establishing new state-of-the-art on several benchmarks.

With the development of artificial intelligence, more and more attention has been put onto generative models, which represent the creativity, a very important aspect of intelligence. In recent years, diffusion models have been studied and proven to be more reasonable and effective than previous methods. However, common diffusion frameworks suffer from controllability problems. Although extra conditions have been considered by some work to guide the diffusion process for a specific target generation, it only controls the generation result but not its process. In this work, we propose a new adaptive framework, $\textit{Adaptively Controllable Diffusion (AC-Diff) Model}$, to automatically and fully control the generation process, including not only the type of generation result but also the length and parameters of the generation process. Both inputs and conditions will be first fed into a $\textit{Conditional Time-Step (CTS) Module}$ to determine the number of steps needed for a generation. Then according to the length of the process, the diffusion rate parameters will be estimated through our $\textit{Adaptive Hybrid Noise Schedule (AHNS) Module}$. We further train the network with the corresponding adaptive sampling mechanism to learn how to adjust itself according to the conditions for the overall performance improvement. To enable its practical applications, AC-Diff is expected to largely reduce the average number of generation steps and execution time while maintaining the same performance as done in the literature diffusion models.

Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) has been applied to more and more scenarios due to its excellent performance in many machine learning tasks, especially with deep and complex structures. However, as the network goes deeper, more parameters need to be stored and optimized. Besides, almost all common CNN models adopt "train-and-use" strategy where the structure is pre-defined and the kernel parameters are fixed after the training with the same structure and set of parameters used for all data without considering the content complexity. In this paper, we propose a new CNN framework, named as $\textit{Puppet-CNN}$, which contains two modules: a $\textit{puppet module}$ and a $\textit{puppeteer module}$. The puppet module is a CNN model used to actually process the input data just like other works, but its depth and kernels are generated by the puppeteer module (realized with Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE)) based on the input complexity each time. By recurrently generating kernel parameters in the puppet module, we can take advantage of the dependence among kernels of different convolutional layers to significantly reduce the size of CNN model by only storing and training the parameters of the much smaller puppeteer ODE module. Through experiments on several datasets, our method has proven to be superior than the traditional CNNs on both performance and efficiency. The model size can be reduced more than 10 times.

Learning continuous-time stochastic dynamics is a fundamental and essential problem in modeling sporadic time series, whose observations are irregular and sparse in both time and dimension. For a given system whose latent states and observed data are high-dimensional, it is generally impossible to derive a precise continuous-time stochastic process to describe the system behaviors. To solve the above problem, we apply Variational Bayesian method and propose a flexible continuous-time stochastic recurrent neural network named Variational Stochastic Differential Networks (VSDN), which embeds the complicated dynamics of the sporadic time series by neural Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE). VSDNs capture the stochastic dependency among latent states and observations by deep neural networks. We also incorporate two differential Evidence Lower Bounds to efficiently train the models. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that VSDNs outperform state-of-the-art continuous-time deep learning models and achieve remarkable performance on prediction and interpolation tasks for sporadic time series.