Many important phenomena in scientific fields such as climate, neuroscience, and epidemiology are naturally represented as spatiotemporal gridded data with complex interactions. For example, in climate science, researchers aim to uncover how large-scale events, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), influence other global processes. Inferring causal relationships from these data is a challenging problem compounded by the high dimensionality of such data and the correlations between spatially proximate points. We present SPACY (SPAtiotemporal Causal discoverY), a novel framework based on variational inference, designed to explicitly model latent time-series and their causal relationships from spatially confined modes in the data. Our method uses an end-to-end training process that maximizes an evidence-lower bound (ELBO) for the data likelihood. Theoretically, we show that, under some conditions, the latent variables are identifiable up to transformation by an invertible matrix. Empirically, we show that SPACY outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on synthetic data, remains scalable for large grids, and identifies key known phenomena from real-world climate data.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate promising capabilities in solving simple scientific problems but often produce hallucinations for complex ones. While integrating LLMs with tools can increase reliability, this approach typically results in over-reliance on tools, diminishing the model's ability to solve simple problems through basic reasoning. In contrast, human experts first assess problem complexity using domain knowledge before choosing an appropriate solution approach. Inspired by this human problem-solving process, we propose a novel two-component fine-tuning method. In the first component World Knowledge Distillation (WKD), LLMs learn directly from solutions generated using tool's information to internalize domain knowledge. In the second component Tool Usage Adaptation (TUA), we partition problems into easy and hard categories based on the model's direct answering accuracy. While maintaining the same alignment target for easy problems as in WKD, we train the model to intelligently switch to tool usage for more challenging problems. We validate our method on six scientific benchmark datasets, spanning mathematics, climate science and epidemiology. On average, our models demonstrate a 28.18% improvement in answer accuracy and a 13.89% increase in tool usage precision across all datasets, surpassing state-of-the-art models including GPT-4o and Claude-3.5.

In recent years, foundation models have attracted significant interest in climate science due to their potential to transform how we approach critical challenges such as climate predictions and understanding the drivers of climate change [Thulke et al., 2024, Nguyen et al., 2024, Cao et al., 2024]. However, while these models are powerful, they often fall short when it comes to answering technical questions requiring high precision such as What is the net effect of Arctic stratus clouds on the Arctic climate? Even advanced models like GPT-4 exhibit epistemological inaccuracies in Climate Question-Answering (QA) tasks [Bulian et al., 2024], raising concerns about their reliability in scientific workflows. This highlights the need for a domain-specific evaluation framework to assess the quality and validity of outputs generated by these models. Current benchmarks for Large Language Models (LLMs) predominantly focus on linguistic accuracy or general factual correctness, but they fail to address the unique demands of climate science, where factual rigor, domain-specific knowledge, and robust reasoning are essential.

Multi-fidelity surrogate modeling aims to learn an accurate surrogate at the highest fidelity level by combining data from multiple sources. Traditional methods relying on Gaussian processes can hardly scale to high-dimensional data. Deep learning approaches utilize neural network based encoders and decoders to improve scalability. These approaches share encoded representations across fidelities without including corresponding decoder parameters. This hinders inference performance, especially in out-of-distribution scenarios when the highest fidelity data has limited domain coverage. To address these limitations, we propose Multi-fidelity Residual Neural Processes (MFRNP), a novel multi-fidelity surrogate modeling framework. MFRNP explicitly models the residual between the aggregated output from lower fidelities and ground truth at the highest fidelity. The aggregation introduces decoders into the information sharing step and optimizes lower fidelity decoders to accurately capture both in-fidelity and cross-fidelity information. We show that MFRNP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art in learning partial differential equations and a real-world climate modeling task. Our code is published at: https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/MFRNP

Clouds play a significant role in global temperature regulation through their effect on planetary albedo. Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols can alter the albedo of clouds, but the extent of this effect, and its consequent impact on temperature change, remains uncertain. Human-induced clouds caused by ship aerosol emissions, commonly referred to as ship tracks, provide visible manifestations of this effect distinct from adjacent cloud regions and therefore serve as a useful sandbox to study human-induced clouds. However, the lack of large-scale ship track data makes it difficult to deduce their general effects on cloud formation. Towards developing automated approaches to localize ship tracks at scale, we present CloudTracks, a dataset containing 3,560 satellite images labeled with more than 12,000 ship track instance annotations. We train semantic segmentation and instance segmentation model baselines on our dataset and find that our best model substantially outperforms previous state-of-the-art for ship track localization (61.29 vs. 48.65 IoU). We also find that the best instance segmentation model is able to identify the number of ship tracks in each image more accurately than the previous state-of-the-art (1.64 vs. 4.99 MAE). However, we identify cases where the best model struggles to accurately localize and count ship tracks, so we believe CloudTracks will stimulate novel machine learning approaches to better detect elongated and overlapping features in satellite images. We release our dataset openly at {zenodo.org/records/10042922}.

Emulators, or reduced complexity climate models, are surrogate Earth system models that produce projections of key climate quantities with minimal computational resources. Using time-series modeling or more advanced machine learning techniques, data-driven emulators have emerged as a promising avenue of research, producing spatially resolved climate responses that are visually indistinguishable from state-of-the-art Earth system models. Yet, their lack of physical interpretability limits their wider adoption. In this work, we introduce FaIRGP, a data-driven emulator that satisfies the physical temperature response equations of an energy balance model. The result is an emulator that (i) enjoys the flexibility of statistical machine learning models and can learn from observations, and (ii) has a robust physical grounding with interpretable parameters that can be used to make inference about the climate system. Further, our Bayesian approach allows a principled and mathematically tractable uncertainty quantification. Our model demonstrates skillful emulation of global mean surface temperature and spatial surface temperatures across realistic future scenarios. Its ability to learn from data allows it to outperform energy balance models, while its robust physical foundation safeguards against the pitfalls of purely data-driven models. We also illustrate how FaIRGP can be used to obtain estimates of top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing and discuss the benefits of its mathematical tractability for applications such as detection and attribution or precipitation emulation. We hope that this work will contribute to widening the adoption of data-driven methods in climate emulation.

Exploring the climate impacts of various anthropogenic emissions scenarios is key to making informed decisions for climate change mitigation and adaptation. State-of-the-art Earth system models can provide detailed insight into these impacts, but have a large associated computational cost on a per-scenario basis. This large computational burden has driven recent interest in developing cheap machine learning models for the task of climate model emulation. In this manuscript, we explore the efficacy of randomly wired neural networks for this task. We describe how they can be constructed and compare them to their standard feedforward counterparts using the ClimateBench dataset. Specifically, we replace the serially connected dense layers in multilayer perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, and convolutional long short-term memory networks with randomly wired dense layers and assess the impact on model performance for models with 1 million and 10 million parameters. We find that models with less complex architectures see the greatest performance improvement with the addition of random wiring (up to 30.4% for multilayer perceptrons). Furthermore, out of 24 different model architecture, parameter count, and prediction task combinations, only one saw a statistically significant performance deficit in randomly wired networks compared to their standard counterparts, with 14 cases showing statistically significant improvement. We also find no significant difference in prediction speed between networks with standard feedforward dense layers and those with randomly wired layers. These findings indicate that randomly wired neural networks may be suitable direct replacements for traditional dense layers in many standard models.

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds are storm clouds generated by extreme wildfires. PyroCbs are associated with unpredictable, and therefore dangerous, wildfire spread. They can also inject smoke particles and trace gases into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, affecting the Earth's climate. As global temperatures increase, these previously rare events are becoming more common. Being able to predict which fires are likely to generate pyroCb is therefore key to climate adaptation in wildfire-prone areas. This paper introduces Pyrocast, a pipeline for pyroCb analysis and forecasting. The pipeline's first two components, a pyroCb database and a pyroCb forecast model, are presented. The database brings together geostationary imagery and environmental data for over 148 pyroCb events across North America, Australia, and Russia between 2018 and 2022. Random Forests, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), and CNNs pretrained with Auto-Encoders were tested to predict the generation of pyroCb for a given fire six hours in advance. The best model predicted pyroCb with an AUC of $0.90 \pm 0.04$.

A first causal discovery analysis from observational data of pyroCb (storm clouds generated from extreme wildfires) is presented. Invariant Causal Prediction was used to develop tools to understand the causal drivers of pyroCb formation. This includes a conditional independence test for testing $Y$ conditionally independent of $E$ given $X$ for binary variable $Y$ and multivariate, continuous variables $X$ and $E$, and a greedy-ICP search algorithm that relies on fewer conditional independence tests to obtain a smaller more manageable set of causal predictors. With these tools, we identified a subset of seven causal predictors which are plausible when contrasted with domain knowledge: surface sensible heat flux, relative humidity at $850$ hPa, a component of wind at $250$ hPa, $13.3$ micro-meters, thermal emissions, convective available potential energy, and altitude.

Aerosol particles play an important role in the climate system by absorbing and scattering radiation and influencing cloud properties. They are also one of the biggest sources of uncertainty for climate modeling. Many climate models do not include aerosols in sufficient detail due to computational constraints. In order to represent key processes, aerosol microphysical properties and processes have to be accounted for. This is done in the ECHAM-HAM global climate aerosol model using the M7 microphysics, but high computational costs make it very expensive to run with finer resolution or for a longer time. We aim to use machine learning to emulate the microphysics model at sufficient accuracy and reduce the computational cost by being fast at inference time. The original M7 model is used to generate data of input-output pairs to train a neural network on it. We are able to learn the variables' tendencies achieving an average $R^2$ score of $77.1\% $. We further explore methods to inform and constrain the neural network with physical knowledge to reduce mass violation and enforce mass positivity. On a GPU we achieve a speed-up of up to over 64x compared to the original model.