We consider the task of privately obtaining prediction error guarantees in ordinary least-squares regression problems with Gaussian covariates (with unknown covariance structure). We provide the first sample-optimal polynomial time algorithm for this task under both pure and approximate differential privacy. We show that any improvement to the sample complexity of our algorithm would violate either statistical-query or information-theoretic lower bounds. Additionally, our algorithm is robust to a small fraction of arbitrary outliers and achieves optimal error rates as a function of the fraction of outliers. In contrast, all prior efficient algorithms either incurred sample complexities with sub-optimal dimension dependence, scaling with the condition number of the covariates, or obtained a polynomially worse dependence on the privacy parameters. Our technical contributions are two-fold: first, we leverage resilience guarantees of Gaussians within the sum-of-squares framework. As a consequence, we obtain efficient sum-of-squares algorithms for regression with optimal robustness rates and sample complexity. Second, we generalize the recent robustness-to-privacy framework [HKMN23, (arXiv:2212.05015)] to account for the geometry induced by the covariance of the input samples. This framework crucially relies on the robust estimators to be sum-of-squares algorithms, and combining the two steps yields a sample-optimal private regression algorithm. We believe our techniques are of independent interest, and we demonstrate this by obtaining an efficient algorithm for covariance-aware mean estimation, with an optimal dependence on the privacy parameters.

We study the problem of robustly estimating the edge density of Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graphs $G(n, d^\circ/n)$ when an adversary can arbitrarily add or remove edges incident to an $\eta$-fraction of the nodes. We develop the first polynomial-time algorithm for this problem that estimates $d^\circ$ up to an additive error $O([\sqrt{\log(n) / n} + \eta\sqrt{\log(1/\eta)} ] \cdot \sqrt{d^\circ} + \eta \log(1/\eta))$. Our error guarantee matches information-theoretic lower bounds up to factors of $\log(1/\eta)$. Moreover, our estimator works for all $d^\circ \geq \Omega(1)$ and achieves optimal breakdown point $\eta = 1/2$. Previous algorithms [AJK+22, CDHS24], including inefficient ones, incur significantly suboptimal errors. Furthermore, even admitting suboptimal error guarantees, only inefficient algorithms achieve optimal breakdown point. Our algorithm is based on the sum-of-squares (SoS) hierarchy. A key ingredient is to construct constant-degree SoS certificates for concentration of the number of edges incident to small sets in $G(n, d^\circ/n)$. Crucially, we show that these certificates also exist in the sparse regime, when $d^\circ = o(\log n)$, a regime in which the performance of previous algorithms was significantly suboptimal.

We prove that there is a universal constant $C>0$ so that for every $d \in \mathbb N$, every centered subgaussian distribution $\mathcal D$ on $\mathbb R^d$, and every even $p \in \mathbb N$, the $d$-variate polynomial $(Cp)^{p/2} \cdot \|v\|_{2}^p - \mathbb E_{X \sim \mathcal D} \langle v,X\rangle^p$ is a sum of square polynomials. This establishes that every subgaussian distribution is \emph{SoS-certifiably subgaussian} -- a condition that yields efficient learning algorithms for a wide variety of high-dimensional statistical tasks. As a direct corollary, we obtain computationally efficient algorithms with near-optimal guarantees for the following tasks, when given samples from an arbitrary subgaussian distribution: robust mean estimation, list-decodable mean estimation, clustering mean-separated mixture models, robust covariance-aware mean estimation, robust covariance estimation, and robust linear regression. Our proof makes essential use of Talagrand's generic chaining/majorizing measures theorem.

We study computational-statistical gaps for improper learning in sparse linear regression. More specifically, given $n$ samples from a $k$-sparse linear model in dimension $d$, we ask what is the minimum sample complexity to efficiently (in time polynomial in $d$, $k$, and $n$) find a potentially dense estimate for the regression vector that achieves non-trivial prediction error on the $n$ samples. Information-theoretically this can be achieved using $\Theta(k \log (d/k))$ samples. Yet, despite its prominence in the literature, there is no polynomial-time algorithm known to achieve the same guarantees using less than $\Theta(d)$ samples without additional restrictions on the model. Similarly, existing hardness results are either restricted to the proper setting, in which the estimate must be sparse as well, or only apply to specific algorithms. We give evidence that efficient algorithms for this task require at least (roughly) $\Omega(k^2)$ samples. In particular, we show that an improper learning algorithm for sparse linear regression can be used to solve sparse PCA problems (with a negative spike) in their Wishart form, in regimes in which efficient algorithms are widely believed to require at least $\Omega(k^2)$ samples. We complement our reduction with low-degree and statistical query lower bounds for the sparse PCA problems from which we reduce. Our hardness results apply to the (correlated) random design setting in which the covariates are drawn i.i.d. from a mean-zero Gaussian distribution with unknown covariance.

We introduce general tools for designing efficient private estimation algorithms, in the high-dimensional settings, whose statistical guarantees almost match those of the best known non-private algorithms. To illustrate our techniques, we consider two problems: recovery of stochastic block models and learning mixtures of spherical Gaussians. For the former, we present the first efficient $(\epsilon, \delta)$-differentially private algorithm for both weak recovery and exact recovery. Previously known algorithms achieving comparable guarantees required quasi-polynomial time. For the latter, we design an $(\epsilon, \delta)$-differentially private algorithm that recovers the centers of the $k$-mixture when the minimum separation is at least $ O(k^{1/t}\sqrt{t})$. For all choices of $t$, this algorithm requires sample complexity $n\geq k^{O(1)}d^{O(t)}$ and time complexity $(nd)^{O(t)}$. Prior work required minimum separation at least $O(\sqrt{k})$ as well as an explicit upper bound on the Euclidean norm of the centers.

We study the problem of robustly estimating the mean or location parameter without moment assumptions. We show that for a large class of symmetric distributions, the same error as in the Gaussian setting can be achieved efficiently. The distributions we study include products of arbitrary symmetric one-dimensional distributions, such as product Cauchy distributions, as well as elliptical distributions. For product distributions and elliptical distributions with known scatter (covariance) matrix, we show that given an $\varepsilon$-corrupted sample, we can with probability at least $1-\delta$ estimate its location up to error $O(\varepsilon \sqrt{\log(1/\varepsilon)})$ using $\tfrac{d\log(d) + \log(1/\delta)}{\varepsilon^2 \log(1/\varepsilon)}$ samples. This result matches the best-known guarantees for the Gaussian distribution and known SQ lower bounds (up to the $\log(d)$ factor). For elliptical distributions with unknown scatter (covariance) matrix, we propose a sequence of efficient algorithms that approaches this optimal error. Specifically, for every $k \in \mathbb{N}$, we design an estimator using time and samples $\tilde{O}({d^k})$ achieving error $O(\varepsilon^{1-\frac{1}{2k}})$. This matches the error and running time guarantees when assuming certifiably bounded moments of order up to $k$. For unknown covariance, such error bounds of $o(\sqrt{\varepsilon})$ are not even known for (general) sub-Gaussian distributions. Our algorithms are based on a generalization of the well-known filtering technique. We show how this machinery can be combined with Huber-loss-based techniques to work with projections of the noise that behave more nicely than the initial noise. Moreover, we show how SoS proofs can be used to obtain algorithmic guarantees even for distributions without a first moment. We believe that this approach may find other applications in future works.

We show hardness of improperly learning halfspaces in the agnostic model, both in the distribution-independent as well as the distribution-specific setting, based on the assumption that worst-case lattice problems, such as GapSVP or SIVP, are hard. In particular, we show that under this assumption there is no efficient algorithm that outputs any binary hypothesis, not necessarily a halfspace, achieving misclassfication error better than $\frac 1 2 - \gamma$ even if the optimal misclassification error is as small is as small as $\delta$. Here, $\gamma$ can be smaller than the inverse of any polynomial in the dimension and $\delta$ as small as $exp(-\Omega(\log^{1-c}(d)))$, where $0 < c < 1$ is an arbitrary constant and $d$ is the dimension. For the distribution-specific setting, we show that if the marginal distribution is standard Gaussian, for any $\beta > 0$ learning halfspaces up to error $OPT_{LTF} + \epsilon$ takes time at least $d^{\tilde{\Omega}(1/\epsilon^{2-\beta})}$ under the same hardness assumptions. Similarly, we show that learning degree-$\ell$ polynomial threshold functions up to error $OPT_{{PTF}_\ell} + \epsilon$ takes time at least $d^{\tilde{\Omega}(\ell^{2-\beta}/\epsilon^{2-\beta})}$. $OPT_{LTF}$ and $OPT_{{PTF}_\ell}$ denote the best error achievable by any halfspace or polynomial threshold function, respectively. Our lower bounds qualitively match algorithmic guarantees and (nearly) recover known lower bounds based on non-worst-case assumptions. Previously, such hardness results [Daniely16, DKPZ21] were based on average-case complexity assumptions or restricted to the statistical query model. Our work gives the first hardness results basing these fundamental learning problems on worst-case complexity assumptions. It is inspired by a sequence of recent works showing hardness of learning well-separated Gaussian mixtures based on worst-case lattice problems.

We give tight statistical query (SQ) lower bounds for learnining halfspaces in the presence of Massart noise. In particular, suppose that all labels are corrupted with probability at most $\eta$. We show that for arbitrary $\eta \in [0,1/2]$ every SQ algorithm achieving misclassification error better than $\eta$ requires queries of superpolynomial accuracy or at least a superpolynomial number of queries. Further, this continues to hold even if the information-theoretically optimal error $\mathrm{OPT}$ is as small as $\exp\left(-\log^c(d)\right)$, where $d$ is the dimension and $0 < c < 1$ is an arbitrary absolute constant, and an overwhelming fraction of examples are noiseless. Our lower bound matches known polynomial time algorithms, which are also implementable in the SQ framework. Previously, such lower bounds only ruled out algorithms achieving error $\mathrm{OPT} + \epsilon$ or error better than $\Omega(\eta)$ or, if $\eta$ is close to $1/2$, error $\eta - o_\eta(1)$, where the term $o_\eta(1)$ is constant in $d$ but going to 0 for $\eta$ approaching $1/2$. As a consequence, we also show that achieving misclassification error better than $1/2$ in the $(A,\alpha)$-Tsybakov model is SQ-hard for $A$ constant and $\alpha$ bounded away from 1.

We develop machinery to design efficiently computable and consistent estimators, achieving estimation error approaching zero as the number of observations grows, when facing an oblivious adversary that may corrupt responses in all but an $\alpha$ fraction of the samples. As concrete examples, we investigate two problems: sparse regression and principal component analysis (PCA). For sparse regression, we achieve consistency for optimal sample size $n\gtrsim (k\log d)/\alpha^2$ and optimal error rate $O(\sqrt{(k\log d)/(n\cdot \alpha^2)})$ where $n$ is the number of observations, $d$ is the number of dimensions and $k$ is the sparsity of the parameter vector, allowing the fraction of inliers to be inverse-polynomial in the number of samples. Prior to this work, no estimator was known to be consistent when the fraction of inliers $\alpha$ is $o(1/\log \log n)$, even for (non-spherical) Gaussian design matrices. Results holding under weak design assumptions and in the presence of such general noise have only been shown in dense setting (i.e., general linear regression) very recently by d'Orsi et al. [dNS21]. In the context of PCA, we attain optimal error guarantees under broad spikiness assumptions on the parameter matrix (usually used in matrix completion). Previous works could obtain non-trivial guarantees only under the assumptions that the measurement noise corresponding to the inliers is polynomially small in $n$ (e.g., Gaussian with variance $1/n^2$). To devise our estimators, we equip the Huber loss with non-smooth regularizers such as the $\ell_1$ norm or the nuclear norm, and extend d'Orsi et al.'s approach [dNS21] in a novel way to analyze the loss function. Our machinery appears to be easily applicable to a wide range of estimation problems.

The Sum-of-Squares hierarchy is a hierarchy of semidefinite programs which has proven to be a powerful tool in the theory of approximation algorithms [GW95, ARV09]. More recently it has also given rise to a flurry of algorithms for estimation problems such as various tensor [BKS15, BM16, MSS16, HSS15], clustering [HL18], and robust estimation problems [KSS18, KKK19, KKM18], often yielding significant improvements over existing algorithms and in some cases even the first efficient ones. The hierarchy is based on the sum-of-squares proof system which on a high-level allows to argue about non-negativity of polynomials by manipulating a set of polynomial inequalities. Most importantly, it can be algorithmically exploited in the sense that certain proofs in this proof system directly certify approximation guarantees of algorithms based on the hierarchy. The running time of these algorithms depends mainly on the number of variables involved and the maximum degree of the polynomials occurring in the inequalities mentioned above. In general using a higher degree often leads to more accurate solutions but also requires more time. In this work, we show how we can significantly reduce the degree of a wide range of sum-of-squares proofs in an almost black-box manner while still certifying similar guarantees and thus giving a direct speedup for concrete algorithms. As two examples we will consider estimation algorithms for clustering and outlier-robust moment estimation. We hope that this technique can inform future algorithms based on the sum-of-squares hierarchy.