Recommendation strategies are typically evaluated by using previously logged data, employing off-policy evaluation methods to estimate their expected performance. However, for strategies that present users with slates of multiple items, the resulting combinatorial action space renders many of these methods impractical. Prior work has developed estimators that leverage the structure in slates to estimate the expected off-policy performance, but the estimation of the entire performance distribution remains elusive. Estimating the complete distribution allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of recommendation strategies, particularly along the axes of risk and fairness that employ metrics computable from the distribution. In this paper, we propose an estimator for the complete off-policy performance distribution for slates and establish conditions under which the estimator is unbiased and consistent. This builds upon prior work on off-policy evaluation for slates and off-policy distribution estimation in reinforcement learning. We validate the efficacy of our method empirically on synthetic data as well as on a slate recommendation simulator constructed from real-world data (MovieLens-20M). Our results show a significant reduction in estimation variance and improved sample efficiency over prior work across a range of slate structures.

Coagent networks for reinforcement learning (RL) [Thomas and Barto, 2011] provide a powerful and flexible framework for deriving principled learning rules for arbitrary stochastic neural networks. The coagent framework offers an alternative to backpropagation-based deep learning (BDL) that overcomes some of backpropagation's main limitations. For example, coagent networks can compute different parts of the network \emph{asynchronously} (at different rates or at different times), can incorporate non-differentiable components that cannot be used with backpropagation, and can explore at levels higher than their action spaces (that is, they can be designed as hierarchical networks for exploration and/or temporal abstraction). However, the coagent framework is not just an alternative to BDL; the two approaches can be blended: BDL can be combined with coagent learning rules to create architectures with the advantages of both approaches. This work generalizes the coagent theory and learning rules provided by previous works; this generalization provides more flexibility for network architecture design within the coagent framework. This work also studies one of the chief disadvantages of coagent networks: high variance updates for networks that have many coagents and do not use backpropagation. We show that a coagent algorithm with a policy network that does not use backpropagation can scale to a challenging RL domain with a high-dimensional state and action space (the MuJoCo Ant environment), learning reasonable (although not state-of-the-art) policies. These contributions motivate and provide a more general theoretical foundation for future work that studies coagent networks.

Explanation is a key component for the adoption of reinforcement learning (RL) in many real-world decision-making problems. In the literature, the explanation is often provided by saliency attribution to the features of the RL agent's state. In this work, we propose a complementary approach to these explanations, particularly for offline RL, where we attribute the policy decisions of a trained RL agent to the trajectories encountered by it during training. To do so, we encode trajectories in offline training data individually as well as collectively (encoding a set of trajectories). We then attribute policy decisions to a set of trajectories in this encoded space by estimating the sensitivity of the decision with respect to that set. Further, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in terms of quality of attributions as well as practical scalability in diverse environments that involve both discrete and continuous state and action spaces such as grid-worlds, video games (Atari) and continuous control (MuJoCo). We also conduct a human study on a simple navigation task to observe how their understanding of the task compares with data attributed for a trained RL policy. Keywords -- Explainable AI, Verifiability of AI Decisions, Explainable RL.

Smoothed online combinatorial optimization considers a learner who repeatedly chooses a combinatorial decision to minimize an unknown changing cost function with a penalty on switching decisions in consecutive rounds. We study smoothed online combinatorial optimization problems when an imperfect predictive model is available, where the model can forecast the future cost functions with uncertainty. We show that using predictions to plan for a finite time horizon leads to regret dependent on the total predictive uncertainty and an additional switching cost. This observation suggests choosing a suitable planning window to balance between uncertainty and switching cost, which leads to an online algorithm with guarantees on the upper and lower bounds of the cumulative regret. Empirically, our algorithm shows a significant improvement in cumulative regret compared to other baselines in synthetic online distributed streaming problems.

Off-policy evaluation methods are important in recommendation systems and search engines, where data collected under an existing logging policy is used to estimate the performance of a new proposed policy. A common approach to this problem is weighting, where data is weighted by a density ratio between the probability of actions given contexts in the target and logged policies. In practice, two issues often arise. First, many problems have very large action spaces and we may not observe rewards for most actions, and so in finite samples we may encounter a positivity violation. Second, many recommendation systems are not probabilistic and so having access to logging and target policy densities may not be feasible. To address these issues, we introduce the featurized embedded permutation weighting estimator. The estimator computes the density ratio in an action embedding space, which reduces the possibility of positivity violations. The density ratio is computed leveraging recent advances in normalizing flows and density ratio estimation as a classification problem, in order to obtain estimates which are feasible in practice.

Online reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are often difficult to deploy in complex human-facing applications as they may learn slowly and have poor early performance. To address this, we introduce a practical algorithm for incorporating human insight to speed learning. Our algorithm, Constraint Sampling Reinforcement Learning (CSRL), incorporates prior domain knowledge as constraints/restrictions on the RL policy. It takes in multiple potential policy constraints to maintain robustness to misspecification of individual constraints while leveraging helpful ones to learn quickly. Given a base RL learning algorithm (ex. UCRL, DQN, Rainbow) we propose an upper confidence with elimination scheme that leverages the relationship between the constraints, and their observed performance, to adaptively switch among them. We instantiate our algorithm with DQN-type algorithms and UCRL as base algorithms, and evaluate our algorithm in four environments, including three simulators based on real data: recommendations, educational activity sequencing, and HIV treatment sequencing. In all cases, CSRL learns a good policy faster than baselines.

Many real-world sequential decision-making problems involve critical systems with financial risks and human-life risks. While several works in the past have proposed methods that are safe for deployment, they assume that the underlying problem is stationary. However, many real-world problems of interest exhibit non-stationarity, and when stakes are high, the cost associated with a false stationarity assumption may be unacceptable. We take the first steps towards ensuring safety, with high confidence, for smoothly-varying non-stationary decision problems. Our proposed method extends a type of safe algorithm, called a Seldonian algorithm, through a synthesis of model-free reinforcement learning with time-series analysis. Safety is ensured using sequential hypothesis testing of a policy's forecasted performance, and confidence intervals are obtained using wild bootstrap.

Most reinforcement learning methods are based upon the key assumption that the transition dynamics and reward functions are fixed, that is, the underlying Markov decision process is stationary. However, in many real-world applications, this assumption is violated, and using existing algorithms may result in a performance lag. To proactively search for a good future policy, we present a policy gradient algorithm that maximizes a forecast of future performance. This forecast is obtained by fitting a curve to the counter-factual estimates of policy performance over time, without explicitly modeling the underlying non-stationarity. The resulting algorithm amounts to a non-uniform reweighting of past data, and we observe that minimizing performance over some of the data from past episodes can be beneficial when searching for a policy that maximizes future performance. We show that our algorithm, called Prognosticator, is more robust to non-stationarity than two online adaptation techniques, on three simulated problems motivated by real-world applications.

Strategic recommendations (SR) refer to the problem where an intelligent agent observes the sequential behaviors and activities of users and decides when and how to interact with them to optimize some long-term objectives, both for the user and the business. These systems are in their infancy in the industry and in need of practical solutions to some fundamental research challenges. At Adobe research, we have been implementing such systems for various use-cases, including points of interest recommendations, tutorial recommendations, next step guidance in multi-media editing software, and ad recommendation for optimizing lifetime value. There are many research challenges when building these systems, such as modeling the sequential behavior of users, deciding when to intervene and offer recommendations without annoying the user, evaluating policies offline with high confidence, safe deployment, non-stationarity, building systems from passive data that do not contain past recommendations, resource constraint optimization in multi-user systems, scaling to large and dynamic actions spaces, and handling and incorporating human cognitive biases. In this paper we cover various use-cases and research challenges we solved to make these systems practical.

In many real-world sequential decision making problems, the number of available actions (decisions) can vary over time. While problems like catastrophic forgetting, changing transition dynamics, changing rewards functions, etc. have been well-studied in the lifelong learning literature, the setting where the action set changes remains unaddressed. In this paper, we present an algorithm that autonomously adapts to an action set whose size changes over time. To tackle this open problem, we break it into two problems that can be solved iteratively: inferring the underlying, unknown, structure in the space of actions and optimizing a policy that leverages this structure. We demonstrate the efficiency of this approach on large-scale real-world lifelong learning problems.