Predicting the near-term behavior of a reactive agent is crucial in many robotic scenarios, yet remains challenging when observations of that agent are sparse or intermittent. Vision-Language Models (VLMs) offer a promising avenue by integrating textual domain knowledge with visual cues, but their one-shot predictions often miss important edge cases and unusual maneuvers. Our key insight is that iterative, counterfactual exploration--where a dedicated module probes each proposed behavior hypothesis, explicitly represented as a plausible trajectory, for overlooked possibilities--can significantly enhance VLM-based behavioral forecasting. We present TRACE (Tree-of-thought Reasoning And Counterfactual Exploration), an inference framework that couples tree-of-thought generation with domain-aware feedback to refine behavior hypotheses over multiple rounds. Concretely, a VLM first proposes candidate trajectories for the agent; a counterfactual critic then suggests edge-case variations consistent with partial observations, prompting the VLM to expand or adjust its hypotheses in the next iteration. This creates a self-improving cycle where the VLM progressively internalizes edge cases from previous rounds, systematically uncovering not only typical behaviors but also rare or borderline maneuvers, ultimately yielding more robust trajectory predictions from minimal sensor data. We validate TRACE on both ground-vehicle simulations and real-world marine autonomous surface vehicles. Experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms standard VLM-driven and purely model-based baselines, capturing a broader range of feasible agent behaviors despite sparse sensing. Evaluation videos and code are available at trace-robotics.github.io.

This paper addresses the challenge of autonomous excavation of challenging terrains, in particular those that are prone to jamming and inter-particle adhesion when tackled by a standard penetrate-drag-scoop motion pattern. Inspired by human excavation strategies, our approach incorporates oscillatory rotation elements -- including swivel, twist, and dive motions -- to break up compacted, tangled grains and reduce jamming. We also present an adaptive impedance control method, the Reactive Attractor Impedance Controller (RAIC), that adapts a motion trajectory to unexpected forces during loading in a manner that tracks a trajectory closely when loads are low, but avoids excessive loads when significant resistance is met. Our method is evaluated on four terrains using a robotic arm, demonstrating improved excavation performance across multiple metrics, including volume scooped, protective stop rate, and trajectory completion percentage.

This paper examines the challenges associated with achieving life-long superalignment in AI systems, particularly large language models (LLMs). Superalignment is a theoretical framework that aspires to ensure that superintelligent AI systems act in accordance with human values and goals. Despite its promising vision, we argue that achieving superalignment requires substantial changes in the current LLM architectures due to their inherent limitations in comprehending and adapting to the dynamic nature of these human ethics and evolving global scenarios. We dissect the challenges of encoding an ever-changing spectrum of human values into LLMs, highlighting the discrepancies between static AI models and the dynamic nature of human societies. To illustrate these challenges, we analyze two distinct examples: one demonstrates a qualitative shift in human values, while the other presents a quantifiable change. Through these examples, we illustrate how LLMs, constrained by their training data, fail to align with contemporary human values and scenarios. The paper concludes by exploring potential strategies to address and possibly mitigate these alignment discrepancies, suggesting a path forward in the pursuit of more adaptable and responsive AI systems.

The exploration of ocean worlds stands as a pivotal element in humanity's exploration of our solar system, encompassing critical research objectives including the quest for potential signs of life and the comprehensive understanding of conditions fostering habitability [1], [2], [3]. Robotic exploration missions are essential for the exploration of potentially habitable ocean worlds. Past lander and rover missions including the Mars exploration program [4] and the Perseverance rover mission [5] are human-in-the-loop systems with expert teams on Earth supervising the terrain sampling process and controlling them based on the collected data. However, unlike Mars missions, many of the ocean world missions, including the Europa Lander mission concept [6], are anticipated to have short durations, on the order of tens of days, due to the intensity of the radiation environment, adverse thermal conditions, low availability of solar energy, and using battery as the sole power source. The limited mission duration combined with the long communication delays between Earth and the ocean worlds necessitates a high degree of autonomy for the lander's success [7]. The Europa lander's primary objectives include collecting terrain samples for in situ analysis of surface and sub-surface materials. Autonomy in terrain sampling missions is challenging due to the high degree of uncertainty in the surface topology at the landing site, terrain material properties, composition, and appearance. Constraints on the number of samples that can be analyzed in-situ, coupled with the risk of system failures, further limits the extent of exploration [8].

Autonomous lander missions on extraterrestrial bodies will need to sample granular material while coping with domain shift, no matter how well a sampling strategy is tuned on Earth. This paper proposes an adaptive scooping strategy that uses deep Gaussian process method trained with meta-learning to learn on-line from very limited experience on the target terrains. It introduces a novel meta-training approach, Deep Meta-Learning with Controlled Deployment Gaps (CoDeGa), that explicitly trains the deep kernel to predict scooping volume robustly under large domain shifts. Employed in a Bayesian Optimization sequential decision-making framework, the proposed method allows the robot to use vision and very little on-line experience to achieve high-quality scooping actions on out-of-distribution terrains, significantly outperforming non-adaptive methods proposed in the excavation literature as well as other state-of-the-art meta-learning methods. Moreover, a dataset of 6,700 executed scoops collected on a diverse set of materials, terrain topography, and compositions is made available for future research in granular material manipulation and meta-learning.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide an efficient way to model real-world sequential decision making processes. Motivated by the problem of maintenance and inspection of a group of infrastructure components with independent dynamics, this paper presents an algorithm to find the optimal policy for a multi-component budget-constrained POMDP. We first introduce a budgeted-POMDP model (b-POMDP) which enables us to find the optimal policy for a POMDP while adhering to budget constraints. Next, we prove that the value function or maximal collected reward for a b-POMDP is a concave function of the budget for the finite horizon case. Our second contribution is an algorithm to calculate the optimal policy for a multi-component budget-constrained POMDP by finding the optimal budget split among the individual component POMDPs. The optimal budget split is posed as a welfare maximization problem and the solution is computed by exploiting the concave nature of the value function. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm by proposing a maintenance and inspection policy for a group of real-world infrastructure components with different deterioration dynamics, inspection and maintenance costs. We show that the proposed algorithm vastly outperforms the policy currently used in practice.

We consider qualitative strategy synthesis for the formalism called consumption Markov decision processes. This formalism can model dynamics of an agents that operates under resource constraints in a stochastic environment. The presented algorithms work in time polynomial with respect to the representation of the model and they synthesize strategies ensuring that a given set of goal states will be reached (once or infinitely many times) with probability 1 without resource exhaustion. In particular, when the amount of resource becomes too low to safely continue in the mission, the strategy changes course of the agent towards one of a designated set of reload states where the agent replenishes the resource to full capacity; with sufficient amount of resource, the agent attempts to fulfill the mission again. We also present two heuristics that attempt to reduce expected time that the agent needs to fulfill the given mission, a parameter important in practical planning. The presented algorithms were implemented and numerical examples demonstrate (i) the effectiveness (in terms of computation time) of the planning approach based on consumption Markov decision processes and (ii) the positive impact of the two heuristics on planning in a realistic example.