We study the problem of learning a high-density region of an arbitrary distribution over $\mathbb{R}^d$. Given a target coverage parameter $\delta$, and sample access to an arbitrary distribution $D$, we want to output a confidence set $S \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ such that $S$ achieves $\delta$ coverage of $D$, i.e., $\mathbb{P}_{y \sim D} \left[ y \in S \right] \ge \delta$, and the volume of $S$ is as small as possible. This is a central problem in high-dimensional statistics with applications in finding confidence sets, uncertainty quantification, and support estimation. In the most general setting, this problem is statistically intractable, so we restrict our attention to competing with sets from a concept class $C$ with bounded VC-dimension. An algorithm is competitive with class $C$ if, given samples from an arbitrary distribution $D$, it outputs in polynomial time a set that achieves $\delta$ coverage of $D$, and whose volume is competitive with the smallest set in $C$ with the required coverage $\delta$. This problem is computationally challenging even in the basic setting when $C$ is the set of all Euclidean balls. Existing algorithms based on coresets find in polynomial time a ball whose volume is $\exp(\tilde{O}( d/ \log d))$-factor competitive with the volume of the best ball. Our main result is an algorithm that finds a confidence set whose volume is $\exp(\tilde{O}(d^{2/3}))$ factor competitive with the optimal ball having the desired coverage. The algorithm is improper (it outputs an ellipsoid). Combined with our computational intractability result for proper learning balls within an $\exp(\tilde{O}(d^{1-o(1)}))$ approximation factor in volume, our results provide an interesting separation between proper and (improper) learning of confidence sets.

Conformal Prediction is a widely studied technique to construct prediction sets of future observations. Most conformal prediction methods focus on achieving the necessary coverage guarantees, but do not provide formal guarantees on the size (volume) of the prediction sets. We first prove an impossibility of volume optimality where any distribution-free method can only find a trivial solution. We then introduce a new notion of volume optimality by restricting the prediction sets to belong to a set family (of finite VC-dimension), specifically a union of $k$-intervals. Our main contribution is an efficient distribution-free algorithm based on dynamic programming (DP) to find a union of $k$-intervals that is guaranteed for any distribution to have near-optimal volume among all unions of $k$-intervals satisfying the desired coverage property. By adopting the framework of distributional conformal prediction (Chernozhukov et al., 2021), the new DP based conformity score can also be applied to achieve approximate conditional coverage and conditional restricted volume optimality, as long as a reasonable estimator of the conditional CDF is available. While the theoretical results already establish volume-optimality guarantees, they are complemented by experiments that demonstrate that our method can significantly outperform existing methods in many settings.

We consider the problem of learning and using predictions for warm start algorithms with predictions. In this setting, an algorithm is given an instance of a problem, and a prediction of the solution. The runtime of the algorithm is bounded by the distance from the predicted solution to the true solution of the instance. Previous work has shown that when instances are drawn iid from some distribution, it is possible to learn an approximately optimal fixed prediction (Dinitz et al, NeurIPS 2021), and in the adversarial online case, it is possible to compete with the best fixed prediction in hindsight (Khodak et al, NeurIPS 2022). In this work we give competitive guarantees against stronger benchmarks that consider a set of $k$ predictions $\mathbf{P}$. That is, the "optimal offline cost" to solve an instance with respect to $\mathbf{P}$ is the distance from the true solution to the closest member of $\mathbf{P}$. This is analogous to the $k$-medians objective function. In the distributional setting, we show a simple strategy that incurs cost that is at most an $O(k)$ factor worse than the optimal offline cost. We then show a way to leverage learnable coarse information, in the form of partitions of the instance space into groups of "similar" instances, that allows us to potentially avoid this $O(k)$ factor. Finally, we consider an online version of the problem, where we compete against offline strategies that are allowed to maintain a moving set of $k$ predictions or "trajectories," and are charged for how much the predictions move. We give an algorithm that does at most $O(k^4 \ln^2 k)$ times as much work as any offline strategy of $k$ trajectories. This algorithm is deterministic (robust to an adaptive adversary), and oblivious to the setting of $k$. Thus the guarantee holds for all $k$ simultaneously.

We formulate the predicted-updates dynamic model, one of the first beyond-worst-case models for dynamic algorithms, which generalizes a large set of well-studied dynamic models including the offline dynamic, incremental, and decremental models to the fully dynamic setting when given predictions about the update times of the elements. In the most basic form of our model, we receive a set of predicted update times for all of the updates that occur over the event horizon. We give a novel framework that "lifts" offline divide-and-conquer algorithms into the fully dynamic setting with little overhead. Using this, we are able to interpolate between the offline and fully dynamic settings; when the $\ell_1$ error of the prediction is linear in the number of updates, we achieve the offline runtime of the algorithm (up to $\mathrm{poly} \log n$ factors). Provided a fully dynamic backstop algorithm, our algorithm will never do worse than the backstop algorithm regardless of the prediction error. Furthermore, our framework achieves a smooth linear trade-off between $\ell_1$ error in the predictions and runtime. These correspond to the desiderata of consistency, robustness, and graceful degradation of the algorithms-with-predictions literature. We further extend our techniques to incremental and decremental settings, transforming algorithms in these settings when given predictions of only the deletion and insertion times, respectively. Our framework is general, and we apply it to obtain improved efficiency bounds over the state-of-the-art dynamic algorithms for a variety of problems including triconnectivity, planar digraph all pairs shortest paths, $k$-edge connectivity, and others, for prediction error of reasonable magnitude.