Recently introduced prior-encoding deep generative models (e.g., PriorVAE, $\pi$VAE, and PriorCVAE) have emerged as powerful tools for scalable Bayesian inference by emulating complex stochastic processes like Gaussian processes (GPs). However, these methods remain largely a proof-of-concept and inaccessible to practitioners. We propose DeepRV, a lightweight, decoder-only approach that accelerates training, and enhances real-world applicability in comparison to current VAE-based prior encoding approaches. Leveraging probabilistic programming frameworks (e.g., NumPyro) for inference, DeepRV achieves significant speedups while also improving the quality of parameter inference, closely matching full MCMC sampling. We showcase its effectiveness in process emulation and spatial analysis of the UK using simulated data, gender-wise cancer mortality rates for individuals under 50, and HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe. To bridge the gap between theory and practice, we provide a user-friendly API, enabling scalable and efficient Bayesian inference.

Surrogate models are widely used in natural sciences, engineering, and machine learning to approximate complex systems and reduce computational costs. However, the current landscape lacks standardisation across key stages of the pipeline, including data collection, sampling design, model class selection, evaluation metrics, and downstream task performance analysis. This fragmentation limits reproducibility, reliability, and cross-domain applicability. The issue has only been exacerbated by the AI revolution and a new suite of surrogate model classes that it offers. In this position paper, we argue for the urgent need for a unified framework to guide the development and evaluation of surrogate models. We outline essential steps for constructing a comprehensive pipeline and discuss alternative perspectives, such as the benefits of domain-specific frameworks. By advocating for a standardised approach, this paper seeks to improve the reliability of surrogate modelling, foster cross-disciplinary knowledge transfer, and, as a result, accelerate scientific progress.

Stochastic processes model various natural phenomena from disease transmission to stock prices, but simulating and quantifying their uncertainty can be computationally challenging. For example, modeling a Gaussian Process with standard statistical methods incurs an $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$ penalty, and even using state-of-the-art Neural Processes (NPs) incurs an $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ penalty due to the attention mechanism. We introduce the Transformer Neural Process - Kernel Regression (TNP-KR), a new architecture that incorporates a novel transformer block we call a Kernel Regression Block (KRBlock), which reduces the computational complexity of attention in transformer-based Neural Processes (TNPs) from $\mathcal{O}((n_C+n_T)^2)$ to $O(n_C^2+n_Cn_T)$ by eliminating masked computations, where $n_C$ is the number of context, and $n_T$ is the number of test points, respectively, and a fast attention variant that further reduces all attention calculations to $\mathcal{O}(n_C)$ in space and time complexity. In benchmarks spanning such tasks as meta-regression, Bayesian optimization, and image completion, we demonstrate that the full variant matches the performance of state-of-the-art methods while training faster and scaling two orders of magnitude higher in number of test points, and the fast variant nearly matches that performance while scaling to millions of both test and context points on consumer hardware.

Foundation models are increasingly ubiquitous in our daily lives, used in everyday tasks such as text-image searches, interactions with chatbots, and content generation. As use increases, so does concern over the disparities in performance and fairness of these models for different people in different parts of the world. To assess these growing regional disparities, we present World Wide Dishes, a mixed text and image dataset consisting of 765 dishes, with dish names collected in 131 local languages. World Wide Dishes has been collected purely through human contribution and decentralised means, by creating a website widely distributed through social networks. Using the dataset, we demonstrate a novel means of operationalising capability and representational biases in foundation models such as language models and text-to-image generative models. We enrich these studies with a pilot community review to understand, from a first-person perspective, how these models generate images for people in five African countries and the United States. We find that these models generally do not produce quality text and image outputs of dishes specific to different regions. This is true even for the US, which is typically considered to be more well-resourced in training data - though the generation of US dishes does outperform that of the investigated African countries. The models demonstrate a propensity to produce outputs that are inaccurate as well as culturally misrepresentative, flattening, and insensitive. These failures in capability and representational bias have the potential to further reinforce stereotypes and disproportionately contribute to erasure based on region. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/oxai/world-wide-dishes/.

Federated learning (FL) allows for collaborative model training across decentralized clients while preserving privacy by avoiding data sharing. However, current FL methods assume conditional independence between client models, limiting the use of priors that capture dependence, such as Gaussian processes (GPs). We introduce the Structured Independence via deep Generative Model Approximation (SIGMA) prior which enables FL for non-factorizable models across clients, expanding the applicability of FL to fields such as spatial statistics, epidemiology, environmental science, and other domains where modeling dependencies is crucial. The SIGMA prior is a pre-trained deep generative model that approximates the desired prior and induces a specified conditional independence structure in the latent variables, creating an approximate model suitable for FL settings. We demonstrate the SIGMA prior's effectiveness on synthetic data and showcase its utility in a real-world example of FL for spatial data, using a conditional autoregressive prior to model spatial dependence across Australia. Our work enables new FL applications in domains where modeling dependent data is essential for accurate predictions and decision-making.

Recent advances have shown that GP priors, or their finite realisations, can be encoded using deep generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAEs). These learned generators can serve as drop-in replacements for the original priors during MCMC inference. While this approach enables efficient inference, it loses information about the hyperparameters of the original models, and consequently makes inference over hyperparameters impossible and the learned priors indistinct. To overcome this limitation, we condition the VAE on stochastic process hyperparameters. This allows the joint encoding of hyperparameters with GP realizations and their subsequent estimation during inference. Further, we demonstrate that our proposed method, PriorCVAE, is agnostic to the nature of the models which it approximates, and can be used, for instance, to encode solutions of ODEs. It provides a practical tool for approximate inference and shows potential in real-life spatial and spatiotemporal applications.

Model-based disease mapping remains a fundamental policy-informing tool in the fields of public health and disease surveillance. Hierarchical Bayesian models have emerged as the state-of-the-art approach for disease mapping since they are able to both capture structure in the data and robustly characterise uncertainty. When working with areal data, e.g.~aggregates at the administrative unit level such as district or province, current models rely on the adjacency structure of areal units to account for spatial correlations and perform shrinkage. The goal of disease surveillance systems is to track disease outcomes over time. This task is especially challenging in crisis situations which often lead to redrawn administrative boundaries, meaning that data collected before and after the crisis are no longer directly comparable. Moreover, the adjacency-based approach ignores the continuous nature of spatial processes and cannot solve the change-of-support problem, i.e.~when estimates are required to be produced at different administrative levels or levels of aggregation. We present a novel, practical, and easy to implement solution to solve these problems relying on a methodology combining deep generative modelling and fully Bayesian inference: we build on the recently proposed PriorVAE method able to encode spatial priors over small areas with variational autoencoders by encoding aggregates over administrative units. We map malaria prevalence in Kenya, a country in which administrative boundaries changed in 2010.

Gaussian processes (GPs), implemented through multivariate Gaussian distributions for a finite collection of data, are the most popular approach in small-area spatiotemporal statistical modelling. In this context they are used to encode correlation structures over space and time and can generalise well in interpolation tasks. Despite their flexibility, off-the-shelf GPs present serious computational challenges which limit their scalability and practical usefulness in applied settings. Here, we propose a novel, deep generative modelling approach to tackle this challenge: for a particular spatiotemporal setting, we approximate a class of GP priors through prior sampling and subsequent fitting of a variational autoencoder (VAE). Given a trained VAE, the resultant decoder allows spatiotemporal inference to become incredibly efficient due to the low dimensional, independently distributed latent Gaussian space representation of the VAE. Once trained, inference using the VAE decoder replaces the GP within a Bayesian sampling framework. This approach provides tractable and easy-to-implement means of approximately encoding spatiotemporal priors and facilitates efficient statistical inference. We demonstrate the utility of our VAE two stage approach on Bayesian, small-area estimation tasks.