Online learning algorithms are widely used in strategic multi-agent settings, including repeated auctions, contract design, and pricing competitions, where agents adapt their strategies over time. A key question in such environments is how an optimizing agent can best respond to a learning agent to improve its own long-term outcomes. While prior work has developed efficient algorithms for the optimizer in special cases - such as structured auction settings or contract design - no general efficient algorithm is known. In this paper, we establish a strong computational hardness result: unless $\mathsf{P} = \mathsf{NP}$, no polynomial-time optimizer can compute a near-optimal strategy against a learner using a standard no-regret algorithm, specifically Multiplicative Weights Update (MWU). Our result proves an $\Omega(T)$ hardness bound, significantly strengthening previous work that only showed an additive $\Theta(1)$ impossibility result. Furthermore, while the prior hardness result focused on learners using fictitious play - an algorithm that is not no-regret - we prove intractability for a widely used no-regret learning algorithm. This establishes a fundamental computational barrier to finding optimal strategies in general game-theoretic settings.

Despite substantial advances in scaling test-time compute, an ongoing debate in the community is how it should be scaled up to enable continued and efficient improvements with scaling. There are largely two approaches: first, distilling successful search or thinking traces; and second, using verification (e.g., 0/1 outcome rewards, reward models, or verifiers) to guide reinforcement learning (RL) and search algorithms. In this paper, we prove that finetuning LLMs with verifier-based (VB) methods based on RL or search is far superior to verifier-free (VF) approaches based on distilling or cloning search traces, given a fixed amount of compute/data budget. Further, we show that as we scale test-time compute (measured as the output token length) and training data, suboptimality of VF methods scales poorly compared to VB when the base pre-trained LLM presents a heterogeneous distribution over correct solution traces (e.g., different lengths, styles, etc.) and admits a non-sharp distribution over rewards on traces sampled from it. We formalize this condition using anti-concentration [Erd\H{o}s, 1945]. This implies a stronger result that VB methods scale better asymptotically, with the performance gap between VB and VF methods widening as test-time budget grows. We corroborate our theory empirically on both didactic and math reasoning problems with 3/8/32B-sized pre-trained LLMs, where we find verification is crucial for scaling test-time compute.

While transformer-based language models have driven the AI revolution thus far, their computational complexity has spurred growing interest in viable alternatives, such as structured state space sequence models (SSMs) and Selective SSMs. Among these, Mamba (S6) and its variant Mamba-2 have shown remarkable inference speed ups over transformers while achieving comparable or superior performance on complex language modeling tasks. However, despite these architectural innovations and empirical successes, the fundamental learning capabilities of Mamba remain poorly understood. In this paper, we address this gap by studying in-context learning (ICL) on Markov chains and uncovering a surprising phenomenon: unlike transformers, even a single-layer Mamba efficiently learns the in-context Laplacian smoothing estimator, which is both Bayes and minimax optimal, for all Markovian orders. To explain this, we theoretically characterize the representation capacity of Mamba and reveal the fundamental role of convolution in enabling it to represent the optimal Laplacian smoothing. These theoretical insights align strongly with empirical results and, to the best of our knowledge, represent the first formal connection between Mamba and optimal statistical estimators. Finally, we outline promising research directions inspired by these findings.

While there has been a large body of research attempting to circumvent tokenization for language modeling (Clark et al., 2022; Xue et al., 2022), the current consensus is that it is a necessary initial step for designing state-of-the-art performant language models. In this paper, we investigate tokenization from a theoretical point of view by studying the behavior of transformers on simple data generating processes. When trained on data drawn from certain simple $k^{\text{th}}$-order Markov processes for $k > 1$, transformers exhibit a surprising phenomenon - in the absence of tokenization, they empirically fail to learn the right distribution and predict characters according to a unigram model (Makkuva et al., 2024). With the addition of tokenization, however, we empirically observe that transformers break through this barrier and are able to model the probabilities of sequences drawn from the source near-optimally, achieving small cross-entropy loss. With this observation as starting point, we study the end-to-end cross-entropy loss achieved by transformers with and without tokenization. With the appropriate tokenization, we show that even the simplest unigram models (over tokens) learnt by transformers are able to model the probability of sequences drawn from $k^{\text{th}}$-order Markov sources near optimally. Our analysis provides a justification for the use of tokenization in practice through studying the behavior of transformers on Markovian data.

The focus of this work is sample-efficient deep reinforcement learning (RL) with a simulator. One useful property of simulators is that it is typically easy to reset the environment to a previously observed state. We propose an algorithmic framework, named uncertainty-first local planning (UFLP), that takes advantage of this property. Concretely, in each data collection iteration, with some probability, our meta-algorithm resets the environment to an observed state which has high uncertainty, instead of sampling according to the initial-state distribution. The agent-environment interaction then proceeds as in the standard online RL setting. We demonstrate that this simple procedure can dramatically improve the sample cost of several baseline RL algorithms on difficult exploration tasks. Notably, with our framework, we can achieve super-human performance on the notoriously hard Atari game, Montezuma's Revenge, with a simple (distributional) double DQN. Our work can be seen as an efficient approximate implementation of an existing algorithm with theoretical guarantees, which offers an interpretation of the positive empirical results.

Pruning schemes have been widely used in practice to reduce the complexity of trained models with a massive number of parameters. In fact, several practical studies have shown that if a pruned model is fine-tuned with some gradient-based updates it generalizes well to new samples. Although the above pipeline, which we refer to as pruning + fine-tuning, has been extremely successful in lowering the complexity of trained models, there is very little known about the theory behind this success. In this paper, we address this issue by investigating the pruning + fine-tuning framework on the overparameterized matrix sensing problem with the ground truth $U_\star \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times r}$ and the overparameterized model $U \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times k}$ with $k \gg r$. We study the approximate local minima of the mean square error, augmented with a smooth version of a group Lasso regularizer, $\sum_{i=1}^k \| U e_i \|_2$. In particular, we provably show that pruning all the columns below a certain explicit $\ell_2$-norm threshold results in a solution $U_{\text{prune}}$ which has the minimum number of columns $r$, yet close to the ground truth in training loss. Moreover, in the subsequent fine-tuning phase, gradient descent initialized at $U_{\text{prune}}$ converges at a linear rate to its limit. While our analysis provides insights into the role of regularization in pruning, we also show that running gradient descent in the absence of regularization results in models which {are not suitable for greedy pruning}, i.e., many columns could have their $\ell_2$ norm comparable to that of the maximum. To the best of our knowledge, our results provide the first rigorous insights on why greedy pruning + fine-tuning leads to smaller models which also generalize well.

We consider the sequential decision-making problem where the mean outcome is a non-linear function of the chosen action. Compared with the linear model, two curious phenomena arise in non-linear models: first, in addition to the "learning phase" with a standard parametric rate for estimation or regret, there is an "burn-in period" with a fixed cost determined by the non-linear function; second, achieving the smallest burn-in cost requires new exploration algorithms. For a special family of non-linear functions named ridge functions in the literature, we derive upper and lower bounds on the optimal burn-in cost, and in addition, on the entire learning trajectory during the burn-in period via differential equations. In particular, a two-stage algorithm that first finds a good initial action and then treats the problem as locally linear is statistically optimal. In contrast, several classical algorithms, such as UCB and algorithms relying on regression oracles, are provably suboptimal.

Online imitation learning is the problem of how best to mimic expert demonstrations, given access to the environment or an accurate simulator. Prior work has shown that in the infinite sample regime, exact moment matching achieves value equivalence to the expert policy. However, in the finite sample regime, even if one has no optimization error, empirical variance can lead to a performance gap that scales with $H^2 / N$ for behavioral cloning and $H / \sqrt{N}$ for online moment matching, where $H$ is the horizon and $N$ is the size of the expert dataset. We introduce the technique of replay estimation to reduce this empirical variance: by repeatedly executing cached expert actions in a stochastic simulator, we compute a smoother expert visitation distribution estimate to match. In the presence of general function approximation, we prove a meta theorem reducing the performance gap of our approach to the parameter estimation error for offline classification (i.e. learning the expert policy). In the tabular setting or with linear function approximation, our meta theorem shows that the performance gap incurred by our approach achieves the optimal $\widetilde{O} \left( \min({H^{3/2}} / {N}, {H} / {\sqrt{N}} \right)$ dependency, under significantly weaker assumptions compared to prior work. We implement multiple instantiations of our approach on several continuous control tasks and find that we are able to significantly improve policy performance across a variety of dataset sizes.

We study the statistical limits of Imitation Learning (IL) in episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with a state space $\mathcal{S}$. We focus on the known-transition setting where the learner is provided a dataset of $N$ length-$H$ trajectories from a deterministic expert policy and knows the MDP transition. We establish an upper bound $O(|\mathcal{S}|H^{3/2}/N)$ for the suboptimality using the Mimic-MD algorithm in Rajaraman et al (2020) which we prove to be computationally efficient. In contrast, we show the minimax suboptimality grows as $\Omega( H^{3/2}/N)$ when $|\mathcal{S}|\geq 3$ while the unknown-transition setting suffers from a larger sharp rate $\Theta(|\mathcal{S}|H^2/N)$ (Rajaraman et al (2020)). The lower bound is established by proving a two-way reduction between IL and the value estimation problem of the unknown expert policy under any given reward function, as well as building connections with linear functional estimation with subsampled observations. We further show that under the additional assumption that the expert is optimal for the true reward function, there exists an efficient algorithm, which we term as Mimic-Mixture, that provably achieves suboptimality $O(1/N)$ for arbitrary 3-state MDPs with rewards only at the terminal layer. In contrast, no algorithm can achieve suboptimality $O(\sqrt{H}/N)$ with high probability if the expert is not constrained to be optimal. Our work formally establishes the benefit of the expert optimal assumption in the known transition setting, while Rajaraman et al (2020) showed it does not help when transitions are unknown.

Estimation of missing mass with the popular Good-Turing (GT) estimator is well-understood in the case where samples are independent and identically distributed (iid). In this article, we consider the same problem when the samples come from a stationary Markov chain with a rank-2 transition matrix, which is one of the simplest extensions of the iid case. We develop an upper bound on the absolute bias of the GT estimator in terms of the spectral gap of the chain and a tail bound on the occupancy of states. Borrowing tail bounds from known concentration results for Markov chains, we evaluate the bound using other parameters of the chain. The analysis, supported by simulations, suggests that, for rank-2 irreducible chains, the GT estimator has bias and mean-squared error falling with number of samples at a rate that depends loosely on the connectivity of the states in the chain.