The integration of renewable energy into electricity markets poses significant challenges to price stability and increases the complexity of market operations. Accurate and reliable electricity price forecasting is crucial for effective market participation, where price dynamics can be significantly more challenging to predict. Probabilistic forecasting, through prediction intervals, efficiently quantifies the inherent uncertainties in electricity prices, supporting better decision-making for market participants. This study explores the enhancement of probabilistic price prediction using Conformal Prediction (CP) techniques, specifically Ensemble Batch Prediction Intervals and Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference. These methods provide precise and reliable prediction intervals, outperforming traditional models in validity metrics. We propose an ensemble approach that combines the efficiency of quantile regression models with the robust coverage properties of time series adapted CP techniques. This ensemble delivers both narrow prediction intervals and high coverage, leading to more reliable and accurate forecasts. We further evaluate the practical implications of CP techniques through a simulated trading algorithm applied to a battery storage system. The ensemble approach demonstrates improved financial returns in energy trading in both the Day-Ahead and Balancing Markets, highlighting its practical benefits for market participants.

Constraint Acquisition (CA) aims to widen the use of constraint programming by assisting users in the modeling process. However, most CA methods suffer from a significant drawback: they learn a single set of individual constraints for a specific problem instance, but cannot generalize these constraints to the parameterized constraint specifications of the problem. In this paper, we address this limitation by proposing GenCon, a novel approach to learn parameterized constraint models capable of modeling varying instances of the same problem. To achieve this generalization, we make use of statistical learning techniques at the level of individual constraints. Specifically, we propose to train a classifier to predict, for any possible constraint and parameterization, whether the constraint belongs to the problem. We then show how, for some classes of classifiers, we can extract decision rules to construct interpretable constraint specifications. This enables the generation of ground constraints for any parameter instantiation. Additionally, we present a generate-and-test approach that can be used with any classifier, to generate the ground constraints on the fly. Our empirical results demonstrate that our approach achieves high accuracy and is robust to noise in the input instances.

Efficiently integrating renewable resources into electricity markets is vital for addressing the challenges of matching real-time supply and demand while reducing the significant energy wastage resulting from curtailments. To address this challenge effectively, the incorporation of storage devices can enhance the reliability and efficiency of the grid, improving market liquidity and reducing price volatility. In short-term electricity markets, participants navigate numerous options, each presenting unique challenges and opportunities, underscoring the critical role of the trading strategy in maximizing profits. This study delves into the optimization of day-ahead and balancing market trading, leveraging quantile-based forecasts. Employing three trading approaches with practical constraints, our research enhances forecast assessment, increases trading frequency, and employs flexible timestamp orders. Our findings underscore the profit potential of simultaneous participation in both day-ahead and balancing markets, especially with larger battery storage systems; despite increased costs and narrower profit margins associated with higher-volume trading, the implementation of high-frequency strategies plays a significant role in maximizing profits and addressing market challenges. Finally, we modelled four commercial battery storage systems and evaluated their economic viability through a scenario analysis, with larger batteries showing a shorter return on investment.

The continuing deployment of renewables and battery energy storage systems is likely to lead to increased price volatility Martinez-Anido et al. (2016); Eurostat (2022). The Balancing Market (BM) is the last stage for trading electric energy, exhibiting far higher volatility compared to both the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) and Intra Day Market (IDM). It plays an essential role (in particular in regions where storage of large quantities of electric energy is not economically convenient Mazzi & Pinson (2017)) as production and consumption levels must match during the operation of electric power systems. The growing importance of accurate forecasts of BM prices to participants is outlined in Ortner & Totschnig (2019), where forecast errors of variable renewable electricity will drive demand for BM participation. Historically, the focus on the DAM is intuitive, given that it is a cornerstone of the European electricity market. In addition, the datasets required for forecasting the DAM are widely available. The lack of analysis of the BM is likely the result of a combination of factors including not all jurisdictions having a BM, the rules governing it can differ from region to region and the identification and acquisition of the relevant datasets can be complicated and expensive (with no open access dataset). In recent years, given access to additional datasets and increasing GPU speeds, the application of Deep Learning (DL) models has become an attractive option.

Predicting future resource demand in Cloud Computing is essential for optimizing the trade-off between serving customers' requests efficiently and minimizing the provisioning cost. Modelling prediction uncertainty is also desirable to better inform the resource decision-making process, but research in this field is under-investigated. In this paper, we propose univariate and bivariate Bayesian deep learning models that provide predictions of future workload demand and its uncertainty. We run extensive experiments on Google and Alibaba clusters, where we first train our models with datasets from different cloud providers and compare them with LSTM-based baselines. Results show that modelling the uncertainty of predictions has a positive impact on performance, especially on service level metrics, because uncertainty quantification can be tailored to desired target service levels that are critical in cloud applications. Moreover, we investigate whether our models benefit transfer learning capabilities across different domains, i.e. dataset distributions. Experiments on the same workload datasets reveal that acceptable transfer learning performance can be achieved within the same provider (because distributions are more similar). Also, domain knowledge does not transfer when the source and target domains are very different (e.g. from different providers), but this performance degradation can be mitigated by increasing the training set size of the source domain.

In this paper we combine the k-means and/or k-means type algorithms with a hill climbing algorithm in stages to solve the joint stratification and sample allocation problem. This is a combinatorial optimisation problem in which we search for the optimal stratification from the set of all possible stratifications of basic strata. Each stratification being a solution the quality of which is measured by its cost. This problem is intractable for larger sets. Furthermore evaluating the cost of each solution is expensive. A number of heuristic algorithms have already been developed to solve this problem with the aim of finding acceptable solutions in reasonable computation times. However, the heuristics for these algorithms need to be trained in order to optimise performance in each instance. We compare the above multi-stage combination of algorithms with three recent algorithms and report the solution costs, evaluation times and training times. The multi-stage combinations generally compare well with the recent algorithms both in the case of atomic and continuous strata and provide the survey designer with a greater choice of algorithms to choose from.

This study combined simulated annealing with delta evaluation to solve the joint stratification and sample allocation problem. In this problem, atomic strata are partitioned into mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive strata. Each stratification is a solution, the quality of which is measured by its cost. The Bell number of possible solutions is enormous for even a moderate number of atomic strata and an additional layer of complexity is added with the evaluation time of each solution. Many larger scale combinatorial optimisation problems cannot be solved to optimality because the search for an optimum solution requires a prohibitive amount of computation time; a number of local search heuristic algorithms have been designed for this problem but these can become trapped in local minima preventing any further improvements. We add to the existing suite of local search algorithms with a simulated annealing algorithm that allows for an escape from local minima and uses delta evaluation to exploit the similarity between consecutive solutions and thereby reduce the evaluation time.

We propose denoising dictionary learning (DDL), a simple yet effective technique as a protection measure against adversarial perturbations. We examined demising dictionary learning on MNIST andCIFAR10 perturbed under two different perturbation techniques, fast gradient sign (FGSM) and jacobian saliency maps (JSMA). We evaluated it against five different deep neural networks (DNN) representing the building blocks of most recent architectures indicating a successive progression of model complexity of each other. We show that each model tends to capture different representations based on their architecture. For each model we recorded its accuracy both on the perturbed test data previously misclassified with high confidence and on the denoised one after the reconstruction using dictionary learning. The reconstruction quality of each data point is assessed by means of PSNR (Peak Signal to Noise Ratio) and Structure Similarity Index (SSI). We show that after applying (DDL) the reconstruction of the original data point from a noisy sample results in a correct prediction with high confidence.

We propose denoising dictionary learning (DDL), a simple yet effective technique as a protection measure against adversarial perturbations. We examined denoising dictionary learning on MNIST and CIFAR10 perturbed under two different perturbation techniques, fast gradient sign (FGSM) and jacobian saliency maps (JSMA). We evaluated it against five different deep neural networks (DNN) representing the building blocks of most recent architectures indicating a successive progression of model complexity of each other. We show that each model tends to capture different representations based on their architecture. For each model we recorded its accuracy both on the perturbed test data previously misclassified with high confidence and on the denoised one after the reconstruction using dictionary learning. The reconstruction quality of each data point is assessed by means of PSNR (Peak Signal to Noise Ratio) and Structure Similarity Index (SSI). We show that after applying (DDL) the reconstruction of the original data point from a noisy

In this work we introduce declarative statistics, a suite of declarative modelling tools for statistical analysis. Statistical constraints represent the key building block of declarative statistics. First, we introduce a range of relevant counting and matrix constraints and associated decompositions, some of which novel, that are instrumental in the design of statistical constraints. Second, we introduce a selection of novel statistical constraints and associated decompositions, which constitute a self-contained toolbox that can be used to tackle a wide range of problems typically encountered by statisticians. Finally, we deploy these statistical constraints to a wide range of application areas drawn from classical statistics and we contrast our framework against established practices.