Sum-Product Networks (SPN) have recently emerged as a new class of tractable probabilistic graphical models. Unlike Bayesian networks and Markov networks where inference may be exponential in the size of the network, inference in SPNs is in time linear in the size of the network. Since SPNs represent distributions over a fixed set of variables only, we propose dynamic sum product networks (DSPNs) as a generalization of SPNs for sequence data of varying length. A DSPN consists of a template network that is repeated as many times as needed to model data sequences of any length. We present a local search technique to learn the structure of the template network. In contrast to dynamic Bayesian networks for which inference is generally exponential in the number of variables per time slice, DSPNs inherit the linear inference complexity of SPNs. We demonstrate the advantages of DSPNs over DBNs and other models on several datasets of sequence data.

Modern conflict-driven clause-learning SAT solvers routinely solve large real-world instances with millions of clauses and variables in them. Their success crucially depends on effective branching heuristics. In this paper, we propose a new branching heuristic inspired by the exponential recency weighted average algorithm used to solve the bandit problem. The branching heuristic, we call CHB, learns online which variables to branch on by leveraging the feedback received from conflict analysis. We evaluated CHB on 1200 instances from the SAT Competition 2013 and 2014 instances, and showed that CHB solves significantly more instances than VSIDS, currently the most effective branching heuristic in widespread use. More precisely, we implemented CHB as part of the MiniSat and Glucose solvers, and performed an apple-to-apple comparison with their VSIDS-based variants. CHB-based MiniSat (resp. CHB-based Glucose) solved approximately 16.1% (resp. 5.6%) more instances than their VSIDS-based variants. Additionally, CHB-based solvers are much more efficient at constructing first preimage attacks on step-reduced SHA-1 and MD5 cryptographic hash functions, than their VSIDS-based counterparts. To the best of our knowledge, CHB is the first branching heuristic to solve significantly more instances than VSIDS on a large, diverse benchmark of real-world instances.

Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) were recently proposed as a new class of probabilistic graphical models that guarantee tractable inference, even on models with high-treewidth. In this paper, we propose a new extension to SPNs, called Decision Sum-Product-Max Networks (Decision-SPMNs), that makes SPNs suitable for discrete multi-stage decision problems. We present an algorithm that solves Decision-SPMNs in a time that is linear in the size of the network. We also present algorithms to learn the parameters of the network from data.

In this paper, we establish some theoretical connections between Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) and Bayesian Networks (BNs). We prove that every SPN can be converted into a BN in linear time and space in terms of the network size. The key insight is to use Algebraic Decision Diagrams (ADDs) to compactly represent the local conditional probability distributions at each node in the resulting BN by exploiting context-specific independence (CSI). The generated BN has a simple directed bipartite graphical structure. We show that by applying the Variable Elimination algorithm (VE) to the generated BN with ADD representations, we can recover the original SPN where the SPN can be viewed as a history record or caching of the VE inference process. To help state the proof clearly, we introduce the notion of {\em normal} SPN and present a theoretical analysis of the consistency and decomposability properties. We conclude the paper with some discussion of the implications of the proof and establish a connection between the depth of an SPN and a lower bound of the tree-width of its corresponding BN.

In many situations, it is desirable to optimize a sequence of decisions by maximizing a primary objective while respecting some constraints with respect to secondary objectives. Such problems can be naturally modeled as constrained partially observable Markov decision processes (CPOMDPs) when the environment is partially observable. In this work, we describe a technique based on approximate linear programming to optimize policies in CPOMDPs. The optimization is performed offline and produces a finite state controller with desirable performance guarantees. The approach outperforms a constrained version of point-based value iteration on a suite of benchmark problems.

We propose SoF (Soft-cluster matrix Factorization), a probabilistic clustering algorithm which softly assigns each data point into clusters. Unlike model-based clustering algorithms, SoF does not make assumptions about the data density distribution. Instead, we take an axiomatic approach to define 4 properties that the probability of co-clustered pairs of points should satisfy. Based on the properties, SoF utilizes a distance measure between pairs of points to induce the conditional co-cluster probabilities. The objective function in our framework establishes an important connection between probabilistic clustering and constrained symmetric Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF), hence providing a theoretical interpretation for NMF-based clustering algorithms. To optimize the objective, we derive a sequential minimization algorithm using a penalty method. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that SoF significantly outperforms previous NMF-based algorithms and that it is able to detect non-convex patterns as well as cluster boundaries.

As a promising alternative to using standard (often intractable) planning techniques with Bellman equations, we propose an interesting method of optimizing POMDP controllers by probabilistic inference in a novel equivalent single-DBN generative model. Our inference approach to POMDP planning allows for (1) for application of various techniques for probabilistic inference in single graphical models, and (2) for exploiting the factored structure in a controller architecture to take advantage of natural structural constrains of planning problems and represent them compactly. Our contributions can be summarized as follows: (1) we designed a novel single-DBN generative model that ensures that the task of probabilistic inference is equivalent to the original problem of optimizing POMDP controllers, and (2) we developed several inference approaches to approximate the value of the policy when exact inference methods are not tractable to solve large-size problems with complex graphical models. The proposed approaches to policy optimization by probabilistic inference are evaluated on several POMDP benchmark problems and the performance of the implemented approximation algorithms is compared.

We propose a new approach to value-directed belief state approximation for POMDPs. The value-directed model allows one to choose approximation methods for belief state monitoring that have a small impact on decision quality. Using a vector space analysis of the problem, we devise two new search procedures for selecting an approximation scheme that have much better computational properties than existing methods. Though these provide looser error bounds, we show empirically that they have a similar impact on decision quality in practice, and run up to two orders of magnitude more quickly.

We consider the problem of approximate belief-state monitoring using particle filtering for the purposes of implementing a policy for a partially-observable Markov decision process (POMDP). While particle filtering has become a widely-used tool in AI for monitoring dynamical systems, rather scant attention has been paid to their use in the context of decision making. Assuming the existence of a value function, we derive error bounds on decision quality associated with filtering using importance sampling. We also describe an adaptive procedure that can be used to dynamically determine the number of samples required to meet specific error bounds. Empirical evidence is offered supporting this technique as a profitable means of directing sampling effort where it is needed to distinguish policies.

In this paper, we consider Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) where actions incur costs in addition to rewards, and thus exploration has to be constrained in terms of the expected total cost while learning to maximize the expected long-term total reward. In order to formalize cost-sensitive exploration, we use the constrained Markov decision process (CMDP) as the model of the environment, in which we can naturally encode exploration requirements using the cost function. We extend BEETLE, a model-based BRL method, for learning in the environment with cost constraints. We demonstrate the cost-sensitive exploration behaviour in a number of simulated problems.