One approach to monitoring a dynamic system relies on decomposition of the system into weakly interacting subsystems. An earlier paper introduced a notion of weak interaction called separability, and showed that it leads to exact propagation of marginals for prediction. This paper addresses two questions left open by the earlier paper: can we define a notion of approximate separability that occurs naturally in practice, and do separability and approximate separability lead to accurate monitoring? The answer to both questions is afirmative. The paper also analyzes the structure of approximately separable decompositions, and provides some explanation as to why these models perform well.

We present an algorithm that identifies the reasoning patterns of agents in a game, by iteratively examining the graph structure of its Multi-Agent Influence Diagram (MAID) representation. If the decision of an agent participates in no reasoning patterns, then we can effectively ignore that decision for the purpose of calculating a Nash equilibrium for the game. In some cases, this can lead to exponential time savings in the process of equilibrium calculation. Moreover, our algorithm can be used to enumerate the reasoning patterns in a game, which can be useful for constructing more effective computerized agents interacting with humans.

In this paper we introduce temporal action graph games (TAGGs), a novel graphical representation of imperfect-information extensive form games. We show that when a game involves anonymity or context-specific utility independencies, its encoding as a TAGG can be much more compact than its direct encoding as a multiagent influence diagram (MAID).We also show that TAGGs can be understood as indirect MAID encodings in which many deterministic chance nodes are introduced. We provide an algorithm for computing with TAGGs, and show both theoretically and empirically that our approach improves significantly on the previous state of the art.

We propose a novel method for helping humans make good decisions in complex games, for which common equilibrium solutions may be too difficult to compute or not relevant. Our method leverages and augments humans' natural use of arguments in the decision making process. We believe that, if computers were capable of generating similar arguments from the mathematical description of a game, and presented those to a human decision maker, the synergies would result in better performance overall. The theory of reasoning patterns naturally lends itself to such a use. We use reasoning patterns to derive localized evaluation functions for each decision in a game, then present their output to humans. We have implemented this approach in a repeated principal-agent game, and used it to generate advice given to subjects. Experimental results show that humans who received advice performed better than those who did not.

Dynamic Bayesian networks are structured representations of stochastic processes. Despitetheir structure, exact inference in DBNs is generally intractable. One approach to approximate inference involves grouping the variables in the process into smaller factors and keeping independent beliefs over these factors.

We describe an intelligent personal assistant that has been developed to aid a busy knowledge worker in managing time commitments and performing tasks. The design of the system was motivated by the complementary objectives of (1) relieving the user of routine tasks, thus allowing her to focus on tasks that critically require human problem-solving skills, and (2) intervening in situations where cognitive overload leads to oversights or mistakes by the user. The system draws on a diverse set of AI technologies that are linked within a Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) agent system. Although the system provides a number of automated functions, the overall framework is highly user centric in its support for human needs, responsiveness to human inputs, and adaptivity to user working style and preferences.

We describe an intelligent personal assistant that has been developed to aid a busy knowledge worker in managing time commitments and performing tasks. The design of the system was motivated by the complementary objectives of (1) relieving the user of routine tasks, thus allowing her to focus on tasks that critically require human problem-solving skills, and (2) intervening in situations where cognitive overload leads to oversights or mistakes by the user. The system draws on a diverse set of AI technologies that are linked within a Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) agent system. Although the system provides a number of automated functions, the overall framework is highly user centric in its support for human needs, responsiveness to human inputs, and adaptivity to user working style and preferences.