In green security, defenders must forecast adversarial behavior, such as poaching, illegal logging, and illegal fishing, to plan effective patrols. These behavior are often highly uncertain and complex. Prior work has leveraged game theory to design robust patrol strategies to handle uncertainty, but existing adversarial behavior models primarily rely on Gaussian processes or linear models, which lack the expressiveness needed to capture intricate behavioral patterns. To address this limitation, we propose a conditional diffusion model for adversary behavior modeling, leveraging its strong distribution-fitting capabilities. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of diffusion models in the green security domain. Integrating diffusion models into game-theoretic optimization, however, presents new challenges, including a constrained mixed strategy space and the need to sample from an unnormalized distribution to estimate utilities. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a mixed strategy of mixed strategies and employ a twisted Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for accurate sampling. Theoretically, our algorithm is guaranteed to converge to an epsilon equilibrium with high probability using a finite number of iterations and samples. Empirically, we evaluate our approach on both synthetic and real-world poaching datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness.

Restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs) have been highly successful in optimizing sequential resource allocation across many domains. However, in many practical settings with highly scarce resources, where each agent can only receive at most one resource, such as healthcare intervention programs, the standard RMAB framework falls short. To tackle such scenarios, we introduce Finite-Horizon Single-Pull RMABs (SPRMABs), a novel variant in which each arm can only be pulled once. This single-pull constraint introduces additional complexity, rendering many existing RMAB solutions suboptimal or ineffective. %To address this, we propose using dummy states to duplicate the system, ensuring that once an arm is activated, it transitions exclusively within the dummy states. To address this shortcoming, we propose using \textit{dummy states} that expand the system and enforce the one-pull constraint. We then design a lightweight index policy for this expanded system. For the first time, we demonstrate that our index policy achieves a sub-linearly decaying average optimality gap of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\frac{1}{\rho^{1/2}}\right)$ for a finite number of arms, where $\rho$ is the scaling factor for each arm cluster. Extensive simulations validate the proposed method, showing robust performance across various domains compared to existing benchmarks.

Various linear complexity models, such as Linear Transformer (LinFormer), State Space Model (SSM), and Linear RNN (LinRNN), have been proposed to replace the conventional softmax attention in Transformer structures. However, the optimal design of these linear models is still an open question. In this work, we attempt to answer this question by finding the best linear approximation to softmax attention from a theoretical perspective. We start by unifying existing linear complexity models as the linear attention form and then identify three conditions for the optimal linear attention design: i) Dynamic memory ability; ii) Static approximation ability; iii) Least parameter approximation. We find that none of the current linear models meet all three conditions, resulting in suboptimal performance. Instead, we propose Meta Linear Attention (MetaLA) as a solution that satisfies these conditions. Our experiments on Multi-Query Associative Recall (MQAR) task, language modeling, image classification, and Long-Range Arena (LRA) benchmark demonstrate that MetaLA is more effective than the existing linear models.

In today's online advertising markets, a crucial requirement for an advertiser is to control her total expenditure within a time horizon under some budget. Among various budget control methods, throttling has emerged as a popular choice, managing an advertiser's total expenditure by selecting only a subset of auctions to participate in. This paper provides a theoretical panorama of a single advertiser's dynamic budget throttling process in repeated second-price auctions. We first establish a lower bound on the regret and an upper bound on the asymptotic competitive ratio for any throttling algorithm, respectively, when the advertiser's values are stochastic and adversarial. Regarding the algorithmic side, we propose the OGD-CB algorithm, which guarantees a near-optimal expected regret with stochastic values. On the other hand, when values are adversarial, we prove that this algorithm also reaches the upper bound on the asymptotic competitive ratio. We further compare throttling with pacing, another widely adopted budget control method, in repeated second-price auctions. In the stochastic case, we demonstrate that pacing is generally superior to throttling for the advertiser, supporting the well-known result that pacing is asymptotically optimal in this scenario. However, in the adversarial case, we give an exciting result indicating that throttling is also an asymptotically optimal dynamic bidding strategy. Our results bridge the gaps in theoretical research of throttling in repeated auctions and comprehensively reveal the ability of this popular budget-smoothing strategy.

We consider a decision aggregation problem with two experts who each make a binary recommendation after observing a private signal about an unknown binary world state. An agent, who does not know the joint information structure between signals and states, sees the experts' recommendations and aims to match the action with the true state. Under the scenario, we study whether supplemented additionally with second-order information (each expert's forecast on the other's recommendation) could enable a better aggregation. We adopt a minimax regret framework to evaluate the aggregator's performance, by comparing it to an omniscient benchmark that knows the joint information structure. With general information structures, we show that second-order information provides no benefit. No aggregator can improve over a trivial aggregator, which always follows the first expert's recommendation. However, positive results emerge when we assume experts' signals are conditionally independent given the world state. When the aggregator is deterministic, we present a robust aggregator that leverages second-order information, which can significantly outperform counterparts without it. Second, when two experts are homogeneous, by adding a non-degenerate assumption on the signals, we demonstrate that random aggregators using second-order information can surpass optimal ones without it. In the remaining settings, the second-order information is not beneficial. We also extend the above results to the setting when the aggregator's utility function is more general.

In the problem of (binary) contextual bandits with knapsacks (CBwK), the agent receives an i.i.d. context in each of the $T$ rounds and chooses an action, resulting in a random reward and a random consumption of resources that are related to an i.i.d. external factor. The agent's goal is to maximize the accumulated reward under the initial resource constraints. In this work, we combine the re-solving heuristic, which proved successful in revenue management, with distribution estimation techniques to solve this problem. We consider two different information feedback models, with full and partial information, which vary in the difficulty of getting a sample of the external factor. Under both information feedback settings, we achieve two-way results: (1) For general problems, we show that our algorithm gets an $\widetilde O(T^{\alpha_u} + T^{\alpha_v} + T^{1/2})$ regret against the fluid benchmark. Here, $\alpha_u$ and $\alpha_v$ reflect the complexity of the context and external factor distributions, respectively. This result is comparable to existing results. (2) When the fluid problem is linear programming with a unique and non-degenerate optimal solution, our algorithm leads to an $\widetilde O(1)$ regret. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first $\widetilde O(1)$ regret result in the CBwK problem regardless of information feedback models. We further use numerical experiments to verify our results.